How simple is simple?
I don’t know, but it’s pretty clear that the models are oversimplifying, and the models are useless as a basis for public policy.
Category Archives: Mathematics
The Tree Rings Of Pyongyang
The latest from Mark Steyn.
Safety First?
Alan Boyle has the storya prequel story of his interview of me in Second Life last night.
Six Degrees Of Warmerization
Mark Steyn says I didn’t write the half of it in that blog post that Mann’s suing me over.
Climate Science
No dissent will be tolerated:
I have been put under such an enormous group pressure in recent days from all over the world that has become virtually unbearable to me. If this is going to continue I will be unable to conduct my normal work and will even start to worry about my health and safety. I see therefore no other way out therefore than resigning from GWPF. I had not expect[ed] such an enormous world-wide pressure put at me from a community that I have been close to all my active life. Colleagues are withdrawing their support, other colleagues are withdrawing from joint authorship etc.
I see no limit and end to what will happen. It is a situation that reminds me about the time of McCarthy. I would never have expect[ed] anything similar in such an original peaceful community as meteorology. Apparently it has been transformed in recent years.
This isn’t science, and hasn’t been for quite a while.
More thoughts from Anthony Watts. And Judith Curry:
I deeply regret that any scientist, particularly such a distinguished scientist as Bengsston, has had to put up with these attacks. This past week, we have seen numerous important and enlightening statements made by Bengtsson about the state of climate science and policy, and science and society is richer for this. We have also seen a disgraceful display of Climate McCarthyism by climate scientists, which has the potential to do as much harm to climate science as did the Climategate emails. And we have seen the GWPF handle this situation with maturity and dignity.
By their fruits shall ye know them. As Cato noted, this just shows that they realized after the Climategate emails, and no one was sanctioned, that they could do this with impunity.
The Speed Of Light
I’d missed this, but apparently Louise Riofrio’s book project met its funding goal. I’ll look forward to seeing it.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet
OK, there seems to be a Twitter panic going on, so I went and read Alan Boyle’s story about it. That was the first time I heard that (even if the models are valid) the problem is two hundred years off.
Isn’t there anyone out there who understands discount rates?
[Update a while later]
Here’s more detail from John Timmer:
Even in the short term, the new findings should increase our estimates for sea level rise by the end of the century, the scientists suggest. But the ongoing process of retreat and destabilization will mean that the area will contribute to rising oceans for centuries.
Sorry, but I’m not going to worry about “rising oceans for centuries” today. Even the end of the century is effectively discounted to zero. It’s economically insane to reduce economic growth now to prevent something that won’t happen for decades.
[Late afternoon update]
As I noted on Twitter earlier:
Not sure that the warm-mongers realize that the ice-sheet story completely obliterates their argument for CO2 reduction. #Inevitable
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) May 12, 2014
If the sea rise is really inevitable, then it makes no sense to mitigate carbon to prevent it, when we'll need the future wealth to deal.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) May 12, 2014
Godzilla
His impossible anatomy.
I’ve commented about this in the past.
Cognitive Biases
The top ones that prevent us from being rational.
A World Without Humans
We don’t worry enough about it.
I think that AI is a much bigger danger than “climate change.” Of course, some people dream of the end of humanity. Many of them are the same ones who worry too much about climate change.
[Update a few minutes later]
Peripherally related: More thoughts on much of the Left’s apparent hatred of humanity:
You know, it’s almost as if, having lost the doctrine of original sin and Christian forgiveness, these poor women are left with nothing but the free-floating, universalized guilt that makes them hate themselves and life. Maybe that’s unfair. I don’t know these ladies. But life hatred — humanity hatred, self-hatred and ultimately God hatred — seem to permeate so much of radical leftism. Feminism and Marxism with their revulsion at human nature, environmentalism with its elevation of greenery over humankind, radical groups like PETA that put the love of animals before the love of neighbor, the sweaty insistence on self-esteem and feeling good about yourself, giving praise, praise, praise for nothing, nothing, nothing, the ceaseless need to define your opposition as hateful… and abortion as a positive. It all smacks of self-hatred, doesn’t it? The love of death over life.
Actually, Bob Zubrin wrote a good book