I just got a review copy of what appears to be an interesting new book
Category Archives: Mathematics
Interstellar
[Tuesday-morning update]
Christopher Nolan’s epic new sci-fi film Interstellar has received measured acclaim from critics, who have praised its ambitious scale and effects but were less convinced about the story.
That was the problem with Gravity, too.
[Bumped]
Climate And The Sun
How much influence does it have?
A lot more than the warm mongers want to believe, I suspect. The refusal to accept that it may play a role reminds me of followers of Ptolemy, who believed the earth the center of the universe.
The New Consensus Study
Our search resulted in 487,629 papers that mentioned “evolution” or “natural selection” in the abstract. However 451,412 of those could not definitively be placed into one of our seven position-defining categories*, no matter how hard we tried with our group of 20 reviewers. [The consensus view among us is that these reviewers are completely independent and objective; their common participation at our web site devoted to presenting pro-selection arguments, but nothing to the contrary, is just not relevant in this case.**]
Of the remaining 36,217 papers, 35,167 (97.1%) supported the consensus position that over half of the observed evolution over the twentieth century is due to natural selection. The fact that only 126 of these 35,167 papers were actually focused on critically evaluating the topic at hand, i.e. the different possible mechanistic explanations of observed evolutionary change and/or speciation (e.g. random drift, founder and other stochastic events, mutation rate variation, instantaneous genetic barriers, etc), is an irrelevant point, a complete red herring. We can reasonably assume that in at least the majority of 50% of the time, none of these 35,167 authors would indicate agreement with a position that they themselves had not carefully investigated, without having more than half of a predominantly pretty good reason for so doing***. It’s just not really half as difficult as people make it out to be when you boil it down. As we have now done. For you.
In conclusion, there is very clearly a very strong consensus as to the influence of natural selection on evolution during the twentieth century and this consensus has been increasing as the evidence increases. It is important that policy makers realize this and take action. Please pick this up and disseminate it widely so everybody knows about it; everyone else is, so you will be part of the consensus effort if you do. Thank you.
Heh.
Peter Thiel And Global Warming
“Whenever you can’t have a debate, I often think that’s evidence that there’s a problem,” Thiel said on The Glenn Beck Program. “When people use the word ‘science,’ it’s often a tell, like in poker, that you’re bluffing. It’s like we have ‘social science’ and we have ‘political science,’ [but] we don’t call it ‘physical science’ or ‘chemical science.’ We just call them physics and chemistry because we know they’re right.”
Thiel said no one will be upset if you ask questions about the periodic table, because it is actually science. But referring to man-made climate change as “science” tells you “that people are exaggerating and they’re bluffing a little bit,” Thiel said.
“The weather has not been getting warmer for the last 15 years. The hockey stick that Al Gore predicted in the early 2000s on the climate has not happened,” he remarked. “And I think as this monolithic culture breaks down, you can have more debates.”
Yes.
A Partial Solar Eclipse
Visible in most of the US and Canada this afternoon.
Lockheed Martin’s Fusion Plans
Michael Beliore interviews them. No mention of space applications, though.
Judith Curry’s WSJ Op-Ed
She rounds up the (hysterical and unhinged) reactions:
Climate science has been thrown into disarray by the hiatus, disagreement between climate model and instrumental estimates of climate sensitivity, uncertainties in carbon uptake by plants, and diverging interpretations of ocean heating (in the face of a dearth of observations). ‘Certainty’ arguably peaked at the time of the AR4 (2007); perception of uncertainty is arguably greater than any time since the FAR (1991). Yes of course we know more about the climate system than we did in 1991, but more knowledge about the complex climate systems opens up new areas of ignorance and greater uncertainty.
In context of the way climate sensitivity is defined by the IPCC, uncertainty in climate sensitivity is decreasing as errors in previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging more. Climate model simulations, when compared with 21st century observations seem to be running too hot, giving creedence to the lower observation-based sensitivity values.
What do the lower values of climate sensitivity imply for policy? Well slower values of warming make it easier to adapt, and provide time to develop new technologies and new policies. But the true believers such as Mann et al. call adaptation, developing new technologies and policies as ‘inaction.’ The policy logic apparent in the essays critical of my op-ed are rather naive.
So we are left with science in disarray and naive logic regarding policy. And the ‘warm team’ wonders why people are yawning?
She should cite my piece on the precautionary principle.
Hal Lewis
Seems to have very publicly resigned from the American Physical Society:
The global warming scam…is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.
Come on, Prof. Don’t hold back. Tell us what you really think. Watch out for the lawsuits, though.
Is There An Open-Source Doctor In The House?
OK, so I installed Gnucash on my machine last week, and it worked like a charm. I rebooted over the weekend after a yum update (which included a kernel rebuild I think) and now when I try to load the program, it crashes, with this response:
Backtrace:
In ice-9/boot-9.scm:
157: 16 [catch #t #…]
In unknown file:
?: 15 [apply-smob/1 #]
In ice-9/boot-9.scm:
3597: 14 [process-use-modules (((gnucash price-quotes)))]
702: 13 [map #((#))]
3598: 12 [#(#)]
2864: 11 [resolve-interface (gnucash price-quotes) #:select …]
2789: 10 [## …]
3065: 9 [try-module-autoload (gnucash price-quotes) #f]
2401: 8 [save-module-excursion #]
3085: 7 [#]
In unknown file:
?: 6 [primitive-load-path “gnucash/price-quotes” …]
In gnucash/price-quotes.scm:
41: 5 [#]
In ice-9/boot-9.scm:
3597: 4 [process-use-modules (((www main)))]
702: 3 [map #((#))]
3598: 2 [#((www main))]
2867: 1 [resolve-interface (www main) #:select …]
In unknown file:
?: 0 [scm-error misc-error #f “~A ~S” (“no code for module” (www main)) #f]ERROR: In procedure scm-error:
ERROR: no code for module (www main)
Any ideas from anyone what the problem might be? I’ve tried uninstalling/reinstalling, with no joy.
[Update a few minutes later]
Someone else seems to have the same problem, or a very similar one. I’ve emailed Mssr. Villemont.
Also, I’ve come up with a temporary fix to let me get taxes done. Skrooge seems to be able to import the data. It’s more of a personal finance app than for business, but it will let me do what I need to do until I get Gnucash fixed.
[Update a few minutes later]
Great. I can import my personal finances, but it fails when it tries to bring in the business books.
[Update a while later]
Good news. I deleted the file recommended at that page, and Gnucash seems to load properly now.