Category Archives: Mathematics

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

The Global Warming Consensus Claim

20 Comments

Two years later, it continues to not stand up to even the mildest scrutiny:

Consensus has no place in science. Academics agree on lots of things, but that does not make them true. Even so, agreement that climate change is real and human-caused does not tell us anything about how the risks of climate change weigh against the risks of climate policy. But in our age of pseudo-Enlightenment, having 97% of researchers on your side is a powerful rhetoric for marginalizing political opponents. All politics ends in failure, however. Chances are the opposition will gain power well before the climate problem is solved. Polarization works in the short run, but is counterproductive in the long run.

In their paper, Cook and colleagues argue that 97% of the relevant academic literature endorses that humans have contributed to observed climate change. This is unremarkable. It follows immediately from the 19th century research by Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius. In popular discourse, however, Cook’s finding is often misrepresented. The 97% refers to the number of papers, rather than the number of scientists. The alleged consensus is about any human role in climate change, rather than a dominant role, and it is about climate change rather than the dangers it might pose.

But other than that, it’s a compelling argument.

Yet the warm mongers continue to repeat it, because it fits the narrative.

[Update a while later]

Thoughts from Judith Curry on climate change, Ted Cruz, and “the Stupid Party.”

I agree with her that Cruz’s statements were actually quite reasonable.

[Update a while later]

Don’t ask how bad a paper has to be to get it retracted, ask how bad it can be and still be published.

Use of the “97%” number, at this point, is a sign of someone who is either a liar, or profoundly ignorant about the issues. In either case, such people should not be taken seriously.

Business, Education, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Social Commentary, Technology and Society

Climate Activists

6 Comments

You people lost the scientific argument. Get over it:

Essex said that there seems to be a cultural shift and that scientific arguments have deteriorated. Individuals in society have moved away from “civilized dialogues in which people have a collegial attitude and work together to try to find the truth.” Essex characterized the pro-climate change philosophy as a form of sophistry, catering to popular opinion rather than being concerned with the truth.

You don’t say.

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Space, Technology and Society

3-D Printing

1 Comment

Finally goes true 3-D.

It’s finally starting to feel like the 21st century.

[Update a while later]

Aaaaaannnd, self-flying cars by 2017?

Seems a little optimistic, but if we’re going to have flying cars, they’ll have to be self flying.

[Mid-morning update]

Aaaaand, molecular 3-D printers. The future is looking very interesting. Both in the conventional and the Chinese sense.

[Late-morning update]

Aaaaannnd, lab-grown chicken meat?

That would be huge breakthrough for both earth and space. I’d really like to see it for pork, though. Technically, would lab-grown pork be kosher? Or halal?

Business, Mathematics, Technology and Society

Windows Question

10 Comments

I have an old Windows 7 installation on an old drive, that I can no longer boot because I changed the motherboard (it’s an HP OEM). While I haven’t tried, I assume that if I take a new licensed installation disk of 8.1, I could recover and upgrade to the new hardware.

Question, if that is the case, is it possible to copy it to an SSD, but without the data, just the Windows installation and the software (I’ve already got data backed up elsewhere). If so, how?

Harder question: If I can do that, can I do it to a virtual machine? I know I can do a clean install on a VM, but I’d like to recover the existing software on the old OS.

[Update a while later]

Well, from what I’m seeing here, looks like it’s not really feasible. The only way to recover the old Windows (as opposed to install a new one) is to dual boot. But I’ll probably recover the machine anyway, just to see what’s on it, and if some of the licensed software (like Malwarebytes) can be migrated to the new one.

[Late-evening update]

Look, here is my conceptual idea.

1) I copy the old Windows drive, then delete data, to eliminate everything that isn’t software.
2) I create a virtual machine with a sized partition.
3) I somehow copy the Windows drive sans data to the virtual partition.
4) I then try to update from Windows 7 to Windows 8.1 using my Windows install disk (full license, not OEM).
5) I then hook up the old data as a network drive, so I’m not putting data on the SSD.

That’s the top-level plan. I’m just not sure how possible it is. I think that Step (3) is where the miracle occurs. Step (5) is a problem if I can’t get Samba working, and if I can’t get it working between a virtual and physical machine.

Humor, Mathematics, Social Commentary, Technology and Society

Odds Of Survival

10 Comments

I’ve often (only half) joked that there are billions of people alive who have never died, so why should we consider it inevitable?

Well, someone has actually worked out the ratio. Hey, 7% odds of survival beats zero.

Mortality Hourglass

[Update a couple minutes later]

Speaking of which Peter Thiel seems to finally be getting serious about longevity, not only funding non-profit research, but actually investing in companies pursuing it.

Administrative, Mathematics, Technology and Society

Virtual Machines

10 Comments

So I ended up installing Windows into one in Qemu. Now I can’t get out of it. I thought that ctrl-alt-L would release it, but nothing happens. I somehow got into a full-screen Windows mode and can’t get out or even see the virt-manager. Any ideas?

[Update a while later]

OK, I figured it out. I’d accidentally clicked on “Full Screen View,” and had to get out of that mode to release the mouse and keyboard, by getting it to drop down from the top.

[Update a few minutes later]

OK, next question. Anyone know how to make a physical NTFS partition viewable by a virtual machine?

[Saturday-morning update]

I decided to try to look at the drive by making it a share on the network, through the virtual ethernet port, but I can’t get Samba to work. Maybe Winscp?

Business, Economics, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

How To Boil A Journalist

5 Comments

Some thoughts on the evolving “consensus” on climate science:

…there never has been a “crunch point” forcing journalists to re-examine the issue. Instead they have just kept the same ridiculous views for over a decade even though no sane journalist coming to the subject of “global warming” after 18 years of pause, complete failure of climate models, global ice back at normal levels, no increase in climate extremes, a decrease in hurricanes and children still knowing what snow is … no journalist would swallow this non-science about doomsday warming in the face of NO EVIDENCE to support it. (Rookies might be more sceptical, but they probably quickly get indoctrinated into the journalists alarmists views)

They don’t ever look at global warming afresh. They just keep believing the same non-science they have for over a decade despite the overwhelming evidence against their insane views.

The fever (to borrow a metaphor from the alarmist-in-chief) will have to break at some point.

[Update a while later]

Naomi Klein showcases everything that is wrong with climate alarmism.

Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Solar Radiation In CMIP5 Climate Models

9 Comments

…has huge basic errors:

Why wasn’t this astonishing, large error of basic astrophysical calculations caught billions of dollars ago, and how much has this error affected the results of all modeling studies in the past?

The paper adds to hundreds of others demonstrating major errors of basic physics inherent in the so-called ‘state of the art’ climate models, including violations of the second law of thermodynamics. In addition, even if the “parameterizations” (a fancy word for fudge factors) in the models were correct (and they are not), the grid size resolution of the models would have to be 1mm or less to properly simulate turbulent interactions and climate (the IPCC uses grid sizes of 50-100 kilometers, 6 orders of magnitude larger). As Dr. Chris Essex points out, a supercomputer would require longer than the age of the universe to run a single 10 year climate simulation at the required 1mm grid scale necessary to properly model the physics of climate.

But let’s get a carbon tax, right now!