Robin Hanson does what few others have. Bottom line: we are at serious risk of having done or doing too much lock down.
Category Archives: Mathematics
New York Patients
Nearly all of them had underlying conditions.
Of all of these, I only have hypertension (which I think is vastly overdiagnosed, andoverrated as a risk). And since only 6% had only one, I’d think it’s unlikely that hypertension by itself is that big a risk, so despite my superannuated condition, I’m not that personally concerned.
Tiptoeing Through A Dark House
COBOL
Want to make money? Brush up on it, or learn it.
Remdesivir
…seems to be at least somewhat effective.
If we can find what works for treatment, and only isolate the most vulnerable, that’s the best path forward to re-open the economy in the absence of a vaccine.
[Update a while later]
Time to dump epidemic models? All models are wrong, some are useful, but it’s not clear that these have been, though they’ve certainly been used to implement policies that a lot of people wanted to implement before the pandemic.
[Bumped]
A New Fundamental Theory Of Physics
Has Wolfram found one?
Haven’t read this yet, but I’m looking forward to it.
The Models
…were flawed and misleading.
As with climate, models are not science.
California
Has it been here (at least in the Bay Area) a lot longer than we thought? I think it’s quite plausible that it was here in December, which in a sense is good news, because it probably means we already have a lot more herd immunity than we thought, and the fatality rate is much lower than earlier fears.
Optimism
We are 100 times safer now than in early March. Hope this is right.
Potential Treatments
The world’s largest supercomputer has found 77 of them.
That’s fast, but faster, please.