It’s starting to look as though some of the worst predictions for New Orleans are coming to pass, even though they missed the worst of the winds. The north levee has been breached, and the city is filling with water from Ponchartrain. More could die if they can’t evacuate the city from the rising waters. In addition, many homes in the city are on fire, with no way to put them out, other than perhaps helicopter or aircraft water drops. It reminds me of San Francisco in the 1906 quake, and it’s going to get apocalyptic pretty quickly.

If you want to know what the Gulf Coast will look like on Tuesday, take a look at the past. Anyone who’s still considering staying for this storm should be persuaded otherwise by these pictures of the effects of Camille in 1969. Unless this storm weakens considerably, it will scrub many buildings right down to the foundations. Here are some more.

We got off very lucky from Katrina down here in south Florida. But the storm is now a category four or five, and headed for the worst possible place–New Orleans, much of which is below sea level. This could be the worst natural disaster since Andrew, and there’s a good chance of it being the worst in US history. I hope that everyone can get out–the odds aren’t very good for anyone who stays. But experience shows that many will, thinking or hoping that it will turn, until it’s too late for them. Brendan Loy is covering it closely, with lots of graphics.

[Update a few minutes later]

Isobars are lines of constant pressure. Check out this forecast of the storm.

[Update at 8 AM EDT]

It just occurs to me that if bin Laden got hold of a nuke, and set it off in New Orleans, it would be a trifle compared to what this storm may be about to do. They’ve been dodging these things for years–Betsy, Camille, Andrew…but their luck may have finally run out.

And this is heading for prime oil-production (and gasoline production) country. Expect a big jump in both oil futures and gas prices tomorrow.

[Update ten minutes later]

I’ve never been to New Orleans, but always meant to. I particularly wanted to see the French Quarter. If the worst happens, I may not ever get the chance, now.

[Update at 8:37 AM EDT]

I’m flying to Los Angeles tomorrow from Fort Lauderdale via Dallas. The route usually goes over the Gulf, coming over land just west of New Orleans, but I suspect that we’ll be flying a lot further to the south.

[Almost 11 AM]

Winds are now at 175 mph, with gusts well over two hundred. A lot of people are going to die, because they started the evacuation too late.

Not only would I not pay twenty five dollars to do this, but I would require receiving vast sums of money to do so. But there may be a market for it.

[Update late, after getting back to Florida]

Yes, I did mean acrophobic, though I suppose the Grand Canyon could be heck on agoraphobes, too.

Well, there’s an incipient hurricane heading right at my house tonight or tomorrow morning, according to all the track predictions. And I’m feeling guilty, being up here in DC, where the weather is gorgeous, while Patricia has to batten down the hatches at home by herself. It gives me a sense of deja vu about last year, when we got hit twice in two weeks in September.

A coworker up here just asked me what it is with Florida and hurricanes lately. My theory is simple: Florida sucks. That’s just my theory, though…

Sixty years ago today, the Japanese government accepted surrender terms from the allies, saving millions of lives in what would have been a futile last-ditch defense of the home islands. A formal signing would take place a couple weeks later, on September 2, 1945.

And Ann Althouse points out another anniversary today, from a quarter of a century ago. It was the beginning of the liberation of eastern Europe, and the beginning of the end of the Cold War.

Not even on earth. Not even in California.

McDermott says he’s never laid eyes on the nearly 400-foot waterfall that park officials recently discovered in a remote corner of the Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, 43,000 acres of wilderness in northern California.

“Sure, I was surprised,” he said from his home in the park, where he’s lived for more than 70 years. “I’ve been all around that place, I never seen ’em.”

Not even on earth. Not even in California.

McDermott says he’s never laid eyes on the nearly 400-foot waterfall that park officials recently discovered in a remote corner of the Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, 43,000 acres of wilderness in northern California.

“Sure, I was surprised,” he said from his home in the park, where he’s lived for more than 70 years. “I’ve been all around that place, I never seen ’em.”

Not even on earth. Not even in California.

McDermott says he’s never laid eyes on the nearly 400-foot waterfall that park officials recently discovered in a remote corner of the Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, 43,000 acres of wilderness in northern California.

“Sure, I was surprised,” he said from his home in the park, where he’s lived for more than 70 years. “I’ve been all around that place, I never seen ’em.”

I got a call claiming to be from my Discover Card. The caller asked me if I wanted to make a balance transfer at an attractive rate. I said, “Sure, but I won’t give you my credit card numbers since you can’t authenticate that you really are Discover Card.”

Triumphantly, the agent told me the last four digits of my credit card number, my “member since” date and my last transaction. While this does indicate that the caller has access to my bill or account (or did at one time), it does not authenticate them as Discover Card because they could have stolen a bill from my mailbox.

More insidiously, they could have dialed a wrong number or a house guest or sitter could have picked up the phone. They did not authenticate me before giving me the personal information that they were so proud of. Not that they could have authenticated me since I would be reluctant to provide any personal information to someone who I did not already know was authentic and authorized.

I asked if there was a way to contact them through my number on the back of my card. They said no, but “I can make a notation on your account and customer service can verify its authenticity and you can call me back on a separate number.” While just possibly securely authentic (if the employee isn’t steering me to an illegitimate outsider), it requires me to make two calls. Why not just call the credit card directly and speak with someone else? I could, but my guy would have trouble getting a commission on the transaction. Maybe they should arrange for a share of any transfers I initiate in the next few minutes or ask for me to do a three-way call to my issuer.

I like checks better. They only go back to the offering party after they have been cashed and even then there might not be any evidence of what account I paid off.