Since I know this is the first place you all come for your college football blogging, I just want to say how surprised I was by the Michigan game today. Oh, I expected them to lose, but I expected them to lose because the defense wouldn’t be able to keep Notre Dame from scoring the dozens of touchdowns that it would take to overcome the Wolverine offense. Instead, I was pleasantly surprised to see the defense finally show some steel, and unpleasantly surprised to see the wheels come completely off the offense. An offense which, by the way, was the only reason on paper that Michigan was ranked so absurdly high during pre-season, and even after the pathetic performance of the defense against Northern Illinois last week.

But what’s really amazing to me is that despite how badly the offense played (and particularly the quarterback, who really singlehandedly lost the game today), they came so close to winning it so many times. They just didn’t seem to want to. Also frustrating was how much they teased their loyal fans throughout the game, continually barely keeping hope alive, so we wouldn’t turn the game off and go do something useful. No team that gets inside the twenty yard line three times (and gets a first and goal on the one) and can’t come up with a score deserves to win.

Well, the bloom is off the rose, and it’s clear that this is a rebuilding year for Michigan. Carr should have changed quarterbacks sometime during the second half–he might have been able to eke out a win if he had. But at least now, there will be no false sense of grandeur, since there’s no way that they’ll maintain their lofty position in the polls (they never should have been that high in the first place, in my opinion), and get more serious about coming back. If Notre Dame goes on to have a good season, it won’t be shameful to have lost to them early, and while it’s extremely unlikely that Michigan will get to the Rose Bowl now (and in fact always was, despite the nonsensical early ranking), they still have a good chance at the BCS. I’m encouraged by the defense that I saw today, once they settled down, and the old saying is that it’s defense that wins championships.

If Michigan can play up to their potential on both sides of the ball, they’ll have a good season. But if the offense can’t get it together, or do better than they did today, it will merely be a long one.

[Evening update]

Halfway through the fourth quarter of the tOSU-Texas game, it’s clear that Michigan has a lot of improving to do to win the B10 championship this year, even disregarding the slaughter in Ames today, which will have a certain blogger who delights in mocking other people crying in his pork-fortified soy milk. The Buckeyes look pretty damn good.

[One more update, in the last few minutes of the game]

I’ve seen what seems to me to be an unusually high number of bad fumble calls today, only to see them reversed today after review, in both the Michigan and Ohio State games. I’m wondering if the refs are getting more sloppy in their play calling because they know that the ruling is reversible?

[Final update]

Well, with Ohio State’s loss (though they still look like scary opponents for Michigan in November), it was a disastrous day for the Big 10. Three teams in the top ten, and all lost today.

Bob Denver has died. I actually liked him a lot more as Maynard G. Krebs, though.

TechCentralStation has set up a special section exclusively for Katrina coverage.

Chuck Simmins says that twenty-two countries have offered aidK for Katrina victims.

Are they really proposing to move people from the Superdome to the Astrodome? That’s an upscale move? From a storm-damaged sports stadium as a domicile to one undamaged? The fact that it is is a testament to the catastrophe that has stricken southeastern Louisiana.

Instapundit has a list of links for those who want to donate for hurricane relief.

We’ve been commemorating sixtieth anniversaries of World War II for a few years now, starting back in September 1999, with the anniversary of the invasion of Poland. I’m watching President Bush give a speech right now in Coronado, almost six decades after the formal surrender of the Japanese government to the Allies in Tokyo harbor (the anniversary will actually be on Friday, September 2nd).

It’s starting to look as though some of the worst predictions for New Orleans are coming to pass, even though they missed the worst of the winds. The north levee has been breached, and the city is filling with water from Ponchartrain. More could die if they can’t evacuate the city from the rising waters. In addition, many homes in the city are on fire, with no way to put them out, other than perhaps helicopter or aircraft water drops. It reminds me of San Francisco in the 1906 quake, and it’s going to get apocalyptic pretty quickly.

If you want to know what the Gulf Coast will look like on Tuesday, take a look at the past. Anyone who’s still considering staying for this storm should be persuaded otherwise by these pictures of the effects of Camille in 1969. Unless this storm weakens considerably, it will scrub many buildings right down to the foundations. Here are some more.

We got off very lucky from Katrina down here in south Florida. But the storm is now a category four or five, and headed for the worst possible place–New Orleans, much of which is below sea level. This could be the worst natural disaster since Andrew, and there’s a good chance of it being the worst in US history. I hope that everyone can get out–the odds aren’t very good for anyone who stays. But experience shows that many will, thinking or hoping that it will turn, until it’s too late for them. Brendan Loy is covering it closely, with lots of graphics.

[Update a few minutes later]

Isobars are lines of constant pressure. Check out this forecast of the storm.

[Update at 8 AM EDT]

It just occurs to me that if bin Laden got hold of a nuke, and set it off in New Orleans, it would be a trifle compared to what this storm may be about to do. They’ve been dodging these things for years–Betsy, Camille, Andrew…but their luck may have finally run out.

And this is heading for prime oil-production (and gasoline production) country. Expect a big jump in both oil futures and gas prices tomorrow.

[Update ten minutes later]

I’ve never been to New Orleans, but always meant to. I particularly wanted to see the French Quarter. If the worst happens, I may not ever get the chance, now.

[Update at 8:37 AM EDT]

I’m flying to Los Angeles tomorrow from Fort Lauderdale via Dallas. The route usually goes over the Gulf, coming over land just west of New Orleans, but I suspect that we’ll be flying a lot further to the south.

[Almost 11 AM]

Winds are now at 175 mph, with gusts well over two hundred. A lot of people are going to die, because they started the evacuation too late.