Category Archives: Economics

On Airbreathing Propulsion

Long-time readers know that I am not a fan. I believe that the benefits of airbreathing for launch vehicles are overhyped, and the technical risk too high for anyone trying to develop cost-effective space transportation in the short term (i.e., private investors), when properly designed rockets can dramatically reduced launch costs without such technical risk. That doesn’t mean, of course, that it wouldn’t be useful for the government to do focused technology development in this area, which will help with non-space applications, as NACA did to support the aviation industry throughout the first half of the last century.

That said, John Bossard, a fan of such propulsion systems, has a thoughtful essay with which I largely agree, particularly this part:

In the final analysis, the argument about whether or not airbreathers have a place in launch vehicle systems becomes secondary to how we will approach launch vehicle development. Anyone who doubts whether free-market forces can do a better job that government elites in deciding what is the correct approach for something as relatively straightforward as launch vehicle development, need look no further than the current debacle of our home-mortgage industry, or our nationalized car companies. Perhaps no better example exists than to look at our current national launch vehicle concept, a concept chosen by a elite cadre of our nation’s finest aerospace technologists, and compare the success of that program with that of launch vehicles being developed by private companies.

I would claim that if we allow it, nay, if we demand it, we can let free-market forces decide what the right approach is, and whether airbreathing propulsion has a role in launch vehicle development. We can let all-comers try their hand. Let a plethora of concepts take to the field, and let free-market forces separate the winners from the losers. Cheer your champions! Raspberry your competition! But whatever you do, support the process, be an enabler of the free enterprise and entrepreneurism, and do what you can to make the field open to whoever has the fortitude to try.

If NASA will finally start being a good customer, and purchasing transportation services instead of engineering services, the market might finally be able to sort these issues out, even if decades later than it could have.

Maybe The Ming Dynasty Had The Right Idea

Legend has it (whether true or not) that, after Zheng He’s voyages were shut down, it was made a capital offense to build a ship with more than four masts.*

If I were Norm Augustine, I would suggest that NASA be encouraged to innovate by being forbidden to develop a vehicle with more capability than the biggest existing Atlas V. This would finally force them to stop wasting money on the heavy-lift fetish, and get on with the business of developing a cost-effective (and scalable) in-space transportation infrastructure. If they really want to continue to indulge in this economically irrational behavior, let them do it with their own money, or find some crazy investor, instead of continuing to screw the taxpayers.

*It was not the size restriction of the ships that prevented the Chinese from being a naval power. The Portuguese and Spanish conquered the New World with much smaller ones.

I Hope That He Fails

… in his attempt to take over a third of the economy. If that be treason, make the most of it. Henry Waxman is behaving like a fascist.

And there’s a good reason for that.

[Update a few minutes later]

The unraveling begins:

The Obama White House and their congressional allies have built expectations among their core supporters that this is the year to pass a government-takeover of American health care. With expectations set so high, most elected Democrats have concluded they have no choice but to set out on a forced march to try to do exactly that — despite unified Republican opposition. But a partisan bill means that Democrats own all of the messy and unattractive details too. The debate is no longer about vague concepts of “coverage” and “cost-control” but who pays and who is forced out of their job-based plans. The more people learn about these details, the less they will like them —which is why the Democratic committee chairmen are working desperately to shorten the time between a full public airing and a vote. They’re hoping there won’t be enough time for public opposition to put a halt to the proceedings.

Just keep giving them more rope, please, and prepare the gibbet for 2010.

[Update a couple minutes later]

And is the Sotomayor nomination in trouble with the public?

Rasmussen’s June 29–30 survey found that support for her confirmation has fallen 8 points, to 37%, while opposition has risen 10 points to 39%…

…Rasmussen also picked up a negative movement in her favorability ratings. In May, a few more voters checked the “very favorable” box (20%) than the “very unfavorable” one (17%). By late June, she was upside-down on this important measure, with only 14% very favorably disposed toward her and 24% very unfavorably disposed.

Another issue on which they may have the votes, but will pay for them November next year.

[Late morning update]

More and more people are becoming traitors to the state, it would seem:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 30% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –8. The President’s Approval Index rating has fallen six points since release of a disappointing jobs report last week (see trends)…

…Overall, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty-eight percent (48%) now disapprove.

I think those numbers are going to get worse before they get better. If they get better. Let’s hope not.

Just keep reeling out the rope…

Good Luck With That

Wanted: honesty in the health-care debate.

President Barack Obama walked into the Oval Office with a veritable halo over his head. In the eyes of his backers, he could say or do no wrong because he had evidently descended directly from heaven to return celestial order to our fallen world. Oprah declared his tongue to be “dipped in the unvarnished truth.” Newsweek editor Evan Thomas averred that Obama “stands above the country and above the world as a sort of a God.”

But when it comes to health care reform, with every passing day, Obama seems less God and more demagogue, uttering not transcendental truths, but bald-faced lies. Here are the top five lies that His Awesomeness has told—the first two for no reason other than to get elected and the next three to sell socialized medicine to a wary nation.

Read the whole thing. Though it’s a little harsh. He’s sufficiently ignorant of economics and other matters that he may have persuaded himself to believe the nonsense.

The Doomsday Machine

of the leftists.

My view of them is that they’re like locusts, or leeches. They find a prosperous area, like California. It is a natural environment in which they can thrive, because the economic conditions have been good for a while as a result of sensible economic policies, and the hosts have become vulnerable to takeover, because it’s been so long since the good policies were put in place that the natives themselves (and certainly the leftists) don’t understand why they’ve been doing so well. They run it into the ground with their insane voting patterns, and then, dissatisfied because they can’t plunder as much as they have in the past due to the suffering economy, move out, to other places like Washington, Nevada, etc., to wreck the next place.

But as Maggie Thatcher notably noted, at some point, you run out of other peoples’ money, either at a state, or national level. We’ll see if the Californians have finally caught on…

Gee, I could expand this into a PJM column.

[Update a few minutes later]

Mourning California.

“If it wasn’t for California, I wouldn’t be where I am today,” said Arizona of Westside 3, the popular sunbelt trio who recently benefited from the late state’s generous gift of fleeing taxpayers and businesses. As a tribute to their mentor, Arizona vowed the group would start spending money “like crack-addled hip hop stars.”

“California’s financial and musical legacy will never die,” said band mates Nevada and Oregon.

At the official funeral service at the LA Coliseum, a grief stricken Washington, who teamed with California on several hit software and wine projects, had to be physically restrained from climbing into the deceased’s gold plated casket.

Similar emotional outpourings were the rule of the day. Stories – apocryphal or not – of the late state’s bizarre self-destructive behavior and fondness for molesting children did little to dampen the the flood of tributes from fans who preferred to remember California as America’s Sweetheart.

From a humble beginning as a water-poor remote Spanish mission outpost, California proved to be a precocious and talented child performer. It struck gold with ‘Sutter’s Mill’ in 1849, earning accolades and attracting millions of crusty bearded prospectors. Black gold soon followed with ‘La Brea Tar Pits.’ Unlike many child acts, California made a smooth transition to adolescence, scoring a major hit with ‘Agriculture’ in 1891.

Even a frightening bout with tremors did not stop the flow of hits. The 1915 megasmash ‘Hollywood’ broke all records, as did the wartime favorite ‘Aerospace.’ More recently, California topped the charts with ‘Tourism,’ ‘High Tech,’ and ‘Coastal Pretension.’

For a time it seemed as if the superstar could do no wrong, but behind the glittering facade of Disneyland Manor troubling signs of mental instability began to emerge. The state developed a well publicized drug problem during filming of 1967’s ‘Summer of Love,’ and briefly dabbled in strange religious cults. Under the influence of spiritual guru Jerry Brown, it began wholesale experimentation in exotic spending programs, eventual resulting in a traumatic 1979 stay at the Prop 13 Rehab Center.

I know I miss California. The California of my youth. I grew up as a little kid wanting to move there from Michigan, and spent a happy quarter of a century there as an adult, but I have to think twice about moving back.

[Update late evening]

Why California is going down the tubes:

THESILKY1

Do you know for a fact, what will happen if you lay-off 100,000 State employees?

Here is an answer to your statement. Half the businesses in the private sector will fold, and the other half that remain open, will not be open for long.

tejouzi

How is laying off thousands of state workers going to help the economy? You want to help the economy, TELL THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO STOPPPPPPP RIPPING OFF THE STATE!!!!! AND WASTING MY TAX DOLLARS BY CHARGING THE STATE TWICE AS MUCH FOR THE SAME SERVICE!!!!! Go take a math class.

Yeah, I’d feel better as a Californian, knowing that these people are on the public payroll.

The Myth Of Low Medicare Overhead

Veronique de Rugy has found a couple of interesting analyses. I particularly agree with this take by Alex Tabbarok:

I find the debate peculiar for a number of reasons:

1) Picking out one measure of health care “costs” to compare systems is sadly reminiscent of the arguments for socialism. Do you remember those arguments? Under socialism:

* “Think of how much money we will save on advertising!”
* “Socialism will lower costs by maximizing economies of scale!”
* “Money will be used for production not profits!”

Exactly these arguments are regularly trotted out in the debate over administrative costs in health care so color me unimpressed. To be clear, the point is not that these statements are false – the point is that these premises to the argument are all in some sense true it’s just the conclusion, socialism is more efficient than capitalism, which turned out to be false. We tried that and it didn’t work. In other words, you have to compare systems not arbitrarily pick out for comparison one type of costs.”

They never learn.