Category Archives: Economics

Thoughts On Artemis 1

…from Joe Pappalardo:

It may be unfair to compare SpaceX and NASA, but SpaceX is built to be fast-but-risky whereas NASA is built to be slow-but-reliable. We’re now seeing that the fast-but-risky approach is actually leading to not only faster but more reliable results. Artemis is this giant U.S. government program that leaks money—as the Apollo program was—and that seems antiquated, but lots of members of Congress could get behind its traditional approach, which made use of languishing NASA facilities and had a supply chain stretching into lots of different communities. There are real benefits to NASA doing work across these communities, of course, but this approach can get in the way of doing things quickly, being able to change direction when engineers learn something new, or being free to adopt new technology and machinery. There’s less flexibility. And the Space Launch System isn’t reusable, either, meaning it’s a costly rocket that can only be used once. It would be foolish to stop this program now, but it would be grossly irresponsible to replicate it in the future.

He doesn’t explain why it would be “foolish to stop this program now.” I can only think that it’s the sunk-cost fallacy, but I think that what is foolish is to continue to throw good money after bad.

The Space Cultural War

There is one, but it is not Moon versus Mars.

The Space Industrial Base

The report is out from DIU.

I’ve only read the summary so far, but this may be the most forward-looking document on space that I’ve ever seen come from the federal government. It explicitly states that the national goal should be the development and settlement of space (it was edited by Pete Garretson). And note what doesn’t appear in the report: SLS. 😄

I’m cited in the report twice, and I may be doing some consulting for General Butow in the fall. DIU is expected to get a nice budget boost in October (unless there’s a CR), because they impressed the brass in Ukraine.