Category Archives: Business

Business, Economics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Technology and Society

Fifty-Dollar Oil

19 Comments

Is it a floor, or a ceiling?

Competitive market conditions would therefore dictate that Saudi Arabia and other low-cost producers always operate at full capacity, while US frackers would experience the boom-bust cycles typical of commodity markets, shutting down when global demand is weak or new low-cost supplies come onstream from Iraq, Libya, Iran, or Russia, and ramping up production only during global booms when oil demand is at a peak.

Under this competitive logic, the marginal cost of US shale oil would become a ceiling for global oil prices, whereas the costs of relatively remote and marginal conventional oilfields in OPEC and Russia would set a floor. As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20. Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50.

Makes sense to me.

[Update a few minutes later]

I’ve long said that oil over a (inflation adjusted) hundred dollars a barrel was unsustainable. This would seem to validate that.

Business, Culinary, Health, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

High-Fat Rodent Diets

1 Comment

Why they are not to be trusted:

So are the results telling us that the increasingly popular low carb high fat approach is wrong? That after all there’s no need for official bodies to perform a major U-turn? Not as far as I can tell. In fact it seems the rodent work is highly misleading. Not only are the so called ‘high fat diets’ they are fed nothing like the low carbohydrate diets any informed human would follow, but the animals have been selectively bred to ensure they become fat and diabetic on a high fat diet. This is not research, it is a rigged game.

I’m sure you’re as shocked as I am.

Business, Culinary, Social Commentary

Whole Foods

12 Comments

America’s angriest store?

I have to say, this hasn’t been my experience, but I don’t go that often — I think most of the food is way overpriced. It might be partly a function of geography.

Via Dr. Eades:

[Update a few minutes later]

Wrong link, fixed now, sorry.

Business, Media Criticism, Popular Culture, Social Commentary, Technology and Society

Wearable Tech

22 Comments

Forget it, what people want is more battery life.

This obsession with “thin” phones makes me crazy. Have the gay men who run the fashion industry, but hate normal female bodies, taken over tech as well?

I just “upgraded” from my dying Droid Global 2, a phone whose batteries were easily changed, for a Droid 4, which has a better OS, and is 4G instead of 3G, and slightly thinner, but has a non-replaceable battery. I consider it a downgrade.

Business, Media Criticism, Space, Technology and Society

Successful Flyback

30 Comments

…and failed landing. That’s what flight test is about. They’ll learn from it, as they always do from a failed attempt.

I would note, though, that this does complicate their operations, if they plan to land down range every time, and can’t return to launch site. I suspect they’ll determine that the problem was crappy weather conditions, and their FLIR or whatever they were using for guidance wasn’t doing very well. That means that there’s a new condition imposed on a decision to fly — weather at recovery site. Shuttle often scrubbed with good weather at the Cape, due to unacceptable conditions at abort sites, and that was just for contingency. If SpaceX wants to recover down range, they may occasionally have to make a decision as to whether to risk the loss of a stage, or delay and arouse customer ire. It will depend on whether or not there’s a tight window (e.g., a planetary mission), and who the customer is.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Oh, I hadn’t read to the end. It sounds like it wasn’t a weather problem — they “ran out of hydraulic fluid” (not sure what that means — it’s not a closed system?). But that seems like good news, both for their chances of recovering next time, and for being able to operate in less-than-perfect conditions. Sounds like they only thing that might prevent a launch, in terms of barge conditions, would be sea state (or high winds), not weather per se.

[Update a few minutes later]

Here‘s what looks like a reasonable explanation from Jon Goff. I haven’t read the post itself yet, but I’m sure it’s worthwhile to do so.

[Update a few minutes later]

OK, Elon just tweeted that it was hydraulics for the control fins, and they came within 10%. So that means an excellent chance of success the next time, with the addition of a little bit more juice.

[Update a few minutes later]