Category Archives: Business

Business, Economics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

SLS And Orion

The Senate Launch System is four years old (if you count from when NASA actually rolled out the design — it’s more like five years when it was first stipulated in the NASA authorization bill). Some thoughts at the time from Jerry Pournelle.

And Stephen Smith has a history of Orion (the capsule, not the nuclear-powered spacecraft, which just slipped another two years, and even NASA is no longer pretending will ever go to Mars):

SpaceX spent 100% of its own money to develop the Falcon 9 booster and the upcoming Falcon Heavy. The cargo Dragon capsule cost $850 million to develop; $400 million was NASA seed money, while $450 million was SpaceX money. It was only four years from SpaceX receiving its first commercial cargo contract in August 2006 to the first test flight in December 2010. The first Dragon delivery was in May 2012. Dragon was designed with the eventual goal of using it for people, so the crewed Dragon V2 would seem likely to avoid much of the design delays that might plague other commercial crew companies.

Orion and SLS have no urgency, because there’s no profit motive. The contractors get paid regardless of their pace or success; it’s required by law. Their lobbyists ensure through generous campaign contributions that Congress will prohibit any competition. Representatives of NASA space centers populate the space authorization and appropriations committees in the House and the Senate; their priority, sometimes stated explicitly, is to protect the taxpayer-funded government jobs in their districts and states.

Maybe, someday, we’ll actually see NASA crew climb into an Orion capsule atop a Space Launch System booster at Pad 39B. But it will be tens of billions of dollars after we see commercial crew companies do it for far cheaper.

Yup. I’d bet it never happens. It certainly shouldn’t.

Business, Education, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Social Commentary

Obama Gets It Right

It’s not often I can have a post title like that, but I agree with Glenn:

President Obama was perhaps inspired by a recent article in The Atlantic by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt, “The Coddling of the American Mind.” Lukianoff and Haidt describe in some detail the way in which college sensitivities have undermined teaching, to the point that some criminal law professors — in law schools — are afraid to teach about rape, and where “trigger warnings” and concerns about “microaggressions” rule the day.

Rather than respond to such complaints with a suggestion that the complainers might be better off under professional psychological care than enrolled in institutions of higher learning, university administrations have tended to go along, even though the complainers represent a rather small fraction of the student body. The result has been a sort of arms-race of oversensitivity, in which each complaint is trumped by one still sillier, until we have reached the situation that Lukianoff, Haidt — and Obama — deplore, in which student mental health may actually suffer, and professors worry that they’ll be pilloried for saying that something “violates the law” because the word “violates” may trigger rape anxieties.

In Monty Python’s Holy Grail, the knights decide to skip a visit to Camelot because “it is a silly place.” With college costs (as President Obama has also noted) skyrocketing even as students seem to be learning less and finding greater difficulty obtaining suitable employment after graduation, higher education administrators should worry that more and more students will draw a similar conclusion. Perhaps President Obama’s warning will get their attention.

This might be the closest he’s ever come to a “Sister Souljah moment.”

Business, Economics, Education, Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

Bernie’s Proposals

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They would add $18T to the national debt. That’s essentially doubling it (again, after Obama already did it once), not even counting the unfunded liabilities of social security et al.

Related: BS from Bernie:

Bernie Sanders, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, spoke at Liberty University today. You can read his speech here. It is useful, in that it exposes the extent of Sanders’s ignorance and radicalism. Any deconstruction of a speech this bad must be selective.

Read the whole fisking. It’s also worth noting, in contrast to when a conservative speaker comes to a leftist college, how politely he was treated.

Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space, Technology and Society

Aerojet Rocketdyne ULA?

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This seems like a really weird story:

Rocket engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne has offered to buy launch services provider United Launch Alliance from Lockheed Martin and Boeing for at least $2 billion, an industry source told SpaceNews Sept. 8.

The unsolicited bid is the latest twist in what has been a topsy-turvy year for ULA, the primary U.S. government launch services provider.

First, this begs the question of whether the parents would be willing to sell. I’m not sure they’d want to give up control, given the strategic issues involved. An unfettered ULA could be almost as disruptive to their government business (particularly SLS) as SpaceX has been.

Of course, a purchase by AJR would probably pretty effectively fetter them in other ways. The only reason for the company to do this is pure desperation. If Tory gets his way, and they build Vulcan/ACES, and end Atlas, Delta and Centaur, and phase out use of the RL-10 as well (which they’ve been wanting to do for years), AJR is pretty much out of business. But it would be acquiring and preserving launch systems that are already known to be uncompetitive on the future market, and it still needs money to build the AR-1, the RD-180 replacement. Congress seems willing to throw them money for that. But the problem is, even if the taxpayer pays for development, the vehicle itself will remain uncompetitive against SpaceX, since even with the development subsidy, manufacturing costs will be higher than the current price for the RD-180 from Russia.

Which makes this story at Engadget pretty funny:

United Launch Alliance is a joint-venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing that launches spy and navigation satellites for the Pentagon and Air Force. Now, the firm is the subject of a $2 billion bid from engine business Aerojet Rocketdyne, a company that’s been snubbed in its attempts to power the Atlas V. If the government’s shadowy army of intelligence analysts and accountants approve the deal, it could create a new aerospace behemoth that could leave Elon Musk shivering out in the cold.

Say what? If I were Elon, I’d be cheering this on, for reasons stated above. What I’d be worried about would be a counteroffer from Bezos, because this deal leaves Blue Origin out in the cold, in terms of suddenly having to develop their own rocket for the BE-4. I’ll bet he’s thinking about it. Of course, as I said above, this all presumes that Boeing and Lockmart are willing to sell. It was reportedly an unsolicited bid.

[Update a few minutes later]

Yes, as noted in comments, it’s a third higher than their market cap. And it’s just an opening bid, no way they’d get it for that price. It might be possible to do some kind of mezzanine M&A deal, but it sure looks like a bad bet to me.

[Mid-afternoon update]