All posts by Sam Dinkin

General

Flu Update

Roche just announced they are sub-licensing Tamiflu broadly. WSJ picked up the story (subscription required) and noted that some countries aren’t waiting and have allowed generic production infringing Roche’s patents.

I was able to obtain some more Tamiflu today here in Austin at my local People’s Pharmacy. While there is apparently tremendous pressure on Roche at the international level, it looks like the rest of the supply chain has not yet picked up on the coming shortage and telegraphed the price rise. Gas prices these are not.

With no human to human transmission yet, it is hard to produce a vaccine because we do not know what the final pathogen will look like as it has not mutated yet. The risk is that it will spread quickly, but another risk is that it will not spread at all unfairly delegitimizing everyone who raised the warning.

It’s a lot to ask people to st0ckpile their own Tamiflu (40 doses is about $300 enough for two acute courses if you show symptoms or 40 days worth of deterrence). But it lasts for three flu seasons. Spending $100/person per year would be $30 billion/year. Roche might part with a license to sell at a few cents a pill in those volumes and the post office distribute it getting the price down to a few bucks a person a year.

But who will st0ckpile it for you if you don’t do it yourself? All it takes is 1% of families to buy to make personal st0ckpiling bigger than Roche’s US sales in a single flu season. There were only 13,000 prescriptions last year. So if 1% of families bought demand would be increased by a factor of a hundred. Then maybe the wheels of government would move to build some more “push packs” for flu and not just bioterror.

While we are talking good public health policy, maybe we could use Tamiflu prophylactically every year in hard hit regions and not wait for bird flu. This and other measures like more widespread vaccination outreach may even cut the tens of thousands of deaths from regular flu seasons down to the 160 of a typical hurricane season. It would also give the Center for Disease Control good practice.

General

Spanish Flu Published

Charles Krathammer noted today in Washington Post that any terrorist can now obtain a digital copy (electronic or DNA) of the Spanish flu that killed tens of millions in 1918-1919. The powers that be felt that the study opportunities given its similarity to avian flu outweighed the risks. The evolving flu pandemic may provide a stark test of my (Sam not Rand) hypothesis that democratic capitalism protects itself.

I joined Bill Joy in raising an alarm about the publishing of the human genome back in 2000 in my own little way contributing my own Op-Ed piece (not accepted). I have since changed my view. Simon’s The Ultimate Resoure 2 changed my view. When we have a bad actor like a terrorist who wants to kill millions, there are trillions of dollars mobilized to combat it when the threat becomes imminent.

That is, if bird flu broke out, there would be massive quarantines, crash vaccine and anti-viral drug production programs, virus safety instructions, massive scientific study and so on. The people in harm’s way will pay thousands each to buy black market antivirals, head for the hills, or whatever course of action is open to them.

Capitalism is kind of like if you need a taxi ride to the hospital to save your life you start waving hundred dollar bills to attract a cab. Democracy means we have a government that can field an army if capitalism falters due to breakdown of property rights and rule of law.

You can improve your chances and possibly capitalism’s chances if you do the following. Ask your doctor to prescribe a 42-day prophylactic course of Tamiflu. Don’t start taking the prophylaxis course until bird flu is sighted in your area. Tamiflu also can be used for 5 days (at twice the dosage) for acute treatment if you start to show symptoms. Track avian flu’s spread from chicken to Turkey at the World Health Organization.

There won’t be enough Tamiflu if bird flu is a big hit. Unless the price starts to rise now. Unless capitalism’s wheels start to turn to produce a lot of it. Unless democracy steps in and does mandatory licensing so every pharmaceuticals manufacturer can produce tamiflu.

“The flu virus, properly evolved, is potentially a destroyer of civilizations,” depending on how resiliant they are.

Continue reading Spanish Flu Published →

Space

Two Words: Gray Goo

On 9/27 Tierney’s column in the New York Times (subscription required; the cheapest option is get home delivery and go on permanent vacation hold) again picked up the alt.space agenda of colonization. His advice, “If officials hope to get money for NASA’s new program of manned exploration, I suggest they go to Capitol Hill with a two-word sales pitch: gray goo.”

I second the sentiment that civilization protects and heals itself, but a rich planet can afford a stylish colony just in case the unthinkable happens.

Space

OK Spaceport EIS December 2005

My Freedom of Information Act request to verify OSIDA’s claim that they are on target for December 2005 did not net any documents (all marked proprietary), but it did net a confirmation of the existence of the documents and a confirmation that the scheduled release of the environmental impact statement (EIS) is December 2005.

Media Criticism

We Don’t Cancel the Fact Check

Mike Griffin defended the budget averaging $8 billion/year for a Moon return (0.05% of 2018 GDP) by saying, “We Don’t Cancel the Navy” as MSNBC headlined. Actually we did cancel the Navy after the Revolutionary War and didn’t start it up again until 1794.
—
I spoke to my dad, the pre-civil war American History Professor Emeritus and he had forgotten that the Navy had been cancelled. I respectfully withdraw my media criticism. I guess it needs to be refiled under media witticism.
Update 2005-09-21-10:55:00

Economics

New Orleans and the Housing Bubble

There were 116 million homes in the US during the 2000 census. Now there are a couple hundred thousand fewer homes in the world and a couple hundred thousand more houses that people have been chased out of. That should fuel the housing price outside of New Orleans in several ways. First, more people will be purchasing homes outside of New Orleans. Second, more people will be renting homes outside of New Orleans driving up the price of substitutes. Third, building materials will be in high demand for a while driving up the cost of building new. Weighing against the bubble is the depression a lot of people face about the future.

High energy prices is kind of mixed for housing prices–it raises prices on close-in houses, lowers it on suburb houses, decreases business confidence, but may increase nominal house prices due to inflation.

In New Orleans, we are likely to see some fire sale prices. It is a good time to start a vulture fund to snap up those houses. New Orleans is likely to have a renaissance the same way that San Francisco, Boston and Chicago did after their big disasters.

Economics

Do Your Part to Prevent Shortages

When everyone was talking about avian flu, I got my doctor to write a Tamiflu prescription that I could get filled before the rush. I just sent off my order for a satellite phone ($1000 including 300 prepaid minutes good for one year). I told them not to hurry so the flood victims could get theirs first. That’s also going to be my present to my dad come December since he lives in Florida–don’t spoil it for him, it’s a surprise. By bidding up the price of goods well in advance of disaster, manufacturers will make more of them.

The best shortage prevention technique known to Man (and provably the only one that always works) is raising prices. Rand brought this up. Now WSJ has joined the act with their piece “In praise of ‘Gouging'”.

Space

Cylon Colony

Michael Huang tries to smooth over ruffled feathers in the Human vs. Robot space exploration debate by playing the colonization card. I vote humans. Nevertheless, there can be self-replicating nanobots or, before those develop, self replicating macrobots. If we are too busy or craven to leave the planet, then maybe we can settle the universe with ‘Cylons’ (the future human-created silicon cum wetware nemesis race from TV show Battlestar Galactica).

Come to think of it, DNA makes us digital life. An argument for Intelligent Design is that if you were trying to colonize a new world like Earth, you would probably arrive at something very much like life as we know it. Genetic algorithms work pretty well at solving ecological problems. Are we some other race’s expendable robot explorers?