All posts by Sam Dinkin

War Commentary

Litani Grievance

Two days after my prediction that the Israelis would move north to the Litani River in Lebanon, they are doing it.

The Israelis see the “300-500” soldiers lives that will be lost in the exchange as worth the cost of the border security. Hezbollah says that Southern Lebanon will be a “graveyard”.

I disagree with Jacque Chirac who says that allowing continued hostilities “would mean the most immoral result”. It is immoral to demand status quo ante borders that are indefensible and an invitation to future hostilities and extra deaths on both sides of the Litani. Expect the second half of my prediction, a wall, to be built as soon as hostilities die down.

War Commentary

Fallacy of Chain Logic

Peace in Lebanon requires all belligerents to agree.
It requires Hezbollah ceasing fire which they say is contingent on:
1. Israel ceding Syrian-claimed Shebaa Farms near the Golan Heights
2. Israel leaving before Hezbollah agreeing
3. An exchange of the captured soldiers for prisoners

Israel ceasing fire which they say requires:
1. Rocket attacks have to stop and a strong international force come in before Israel leaving
2. Kidnapped soldiers must be returned before cease fire

For an international force to come in:
1. There must be an agreement before coming in
2. There must be a cease fire before coming in
3. There must be a willing country to do the deployment

There are other actors that have other things to do such as Syria, Iran, US, Russia and China among others.

These are logically inconsistent and quite unlikely even if the basic inconsistencies get resolved by some miracle. I get a gestalt from the reporting that peace is just a matter of putting more pressure on the parties and that it is a minor issue that divides them. The logical fallacy is that we have a number of unlikely events that must all happen for peace to be achieved and pundits are treating the chain as strong as the strongest link: that Israel and Hezbollah both agree that a prisoner exchange would be a good idea.

My prediction is that we will have no partnership, no peace and that Israel will re-occupy Lebanon north to the Litani River, there will be a new wall, and Hezbollah will be envigorated to continue killing Israeli soldiers at the rate of 50-100/year which was the pre-2000 level. Israel will accept this as a trade vital to keeping Northern Israel free of short range rockets and unacceptable levels of civilian deaths. Lebanon will be a war zone until Hezbollah is beaten by some other force in the rest of Lebanon.

Space

Nuts and Bolts of SpaceX Process

SpaceX has moved to “version 1.1” which expresses Elon Musk’s confidence that the next launch will not have the same problems as the first. (In software culture, which Musk earned one of his fortunes in, an initial version of 0.9 or no version augmentation from previous expresses scepticism. 1.1 or augmentation of the major or minor version expresses confidence.) To fix the specific failure from the last launch “…any exposed aluminum B-nuts are being replaced with either an orbital welded joint or a stainless steel B-nut that won’t corrode.” To fix many other sources of potential failure, the electronic monitoring, automatic launch procedures, remote monitoring, exterior redesign and better climate control for payload are all excellent improvements. Bravo!

The oversight by managers they implemented needs more details released before I would recognize it as a new improved way of doing business. (Finally, while I have seen another company launch with the engine compartment on fire, a technical coup may be a PR mistake.)

In other news, Musk’s electric car company is making headlines.

Space

Counterpoint from Vegas

Journalism Prizes

Congratulations to Leonard David for winning the 2nd Annual Space Journalism Award of $1,000 for best article on human spacefaring for January-September 2005 for his article, Space Tourism: Keeping the Customer Satisfied. I sponsored this and it was judged by Clark Lindsey, Jeff Foust and last year’s winner, Eli Kintisch. I also sponsored a prize for Best Breaking News Reporting of $1,000 judged by the Space Frontier Foundation Board that went to Alan Boyle.

Bigelow

Nothing that Bigelow said or did was particularly surprising except that Bigelow Aerospace is now being an open company and lifting the covers off of a very interesting and ambitious program. Another surprise was that Bigelow himself led the three tours of his facility. He’s in good shape with grey hair and a moustache. He wore a shirt that was colorful with patterns reminiscent of seismometer tracks. Bigelow opening up was like a quake that was building up for a long time. The Bigelow items at the Space Frontier Foundation Teacher’s in Space auction went for high prices. One of five signed Bigelow posters went for more than tours of SpaceX and Rocketplane, and generous affinity packages from XCOR, Masten and Armadillo Aerospace.

One auction item of note is the right to name one of the scorpions going up on a Genesis or the next larger scale model, the Galaxy (perhaps a renamed Guardian at 45% scale). During the tour, Bigelow pointed out his life sciences area under construction where he will keep a control group of various animals that will mirror another set going up into space on future missions.

The Genesis is “1/3” scale, but that encompasses less than 1/27 of the volume of the Nautilus because of some components that do not scale well. The Guardian/Galaxy if it’s 45% would have almost 10% of the volume of the full size BA-330 Nautilus. The ISS is only 425 cubic meters at this point and will only be triple that volume when “completed” (if ever). Five Bigelow habs could be four times the volume of the current ISS. With the floor and ceiling usable, and two bulkheads making three decks, a single 330 presents as much living “area” as a 5000 square foot house. Stringing them together would make a pretty nice lab and hotel complex. Bigelow’s anticipated market of the rest of the countries of the world sending astronauts is intriguing and reminiscent of The Rocket Company by David Hoerr. He’s not talking about industry any more after finding out how badly burned they were with their dealings with NASA.

On a positive note, Bigelow says he’ll be starting an Astronaut corps in four years. When I asked him what people should do to get ready, e.g., study hard in school, he said “I’ll have to think on that.”

Masten

At Michael Mealling’s business plan presentation, he said that a key differentiator for Masten for their later generations will be the ability to go to 500km with their tourist version. Another differentiator is that the pilot will be on the ground.

First to Suborbit

I heard from George French III (aka little George) who is son of Chairman George French, on the Board of Directors at Rocketplane Kistler and heading up Sales and Customer Relations that Rocketplane will delay their first revenue flight for XP past 2007. This leaves Armadillo with the earliest announced date for beginning of test flights for their tourist vehicle. At least four different vendors have told me they will or could be first and there are at least two fast followers that I am aware of. Some are still seeking funding. It should be pretty exciting when it all hits which may be 2007, but depending on how successfully development and testing go for Armadillo, it may hit in 2008, or if it goes slowly for a wider crowd, 2009.

Business

AOL Free Soon

AOL is pushing the nation to broadband by decreasing the gap between broadband AOL and regular AOL by $15/month. This seems like the biggest and last key tipping point toward US broadband. Dialup AOL will stay the same price. They expect to make up the subscriber fee losses in increased advertising revenue. This will be a tricky transition, but if successful, we could be watching Warner content over the web. TV sales and ad sales could indeed make this a good idea.

In the mean time, AOL is about to give millions of people $180/year. According to WSJ:

Of AOL’s 18.6 million domestic subscribers, about six million get their Internet access from a high-speed provider … AOL would let subscribers with a high-speed connection keep their AOL account free.

Between the Bill Gates foreign policy and the AOL fiscal policy, private America is stealing a march on the Federal Government.

General

Two Confidence Anecdotes

I recently got a call from Chase left on my answering machine telling me to call an 800 number and have my credit card available to authenticate myself. The trouble is, they didn’t authenticate themselves. Anyone could have made that call to me and if I did what the call said, I would be giving my credit card number (and probably the date, secret code and every else they asked me) to a bad actor. I authenticated them by dialing the number on the back of my card, but I worry that there will be a smart confidence man who will figure this out before the rest of the world figures out how to stop leaving openings.

I also received two calls about my “Virgin lottery territory” piece that Buzz Aldrin liked. Two other people called because they received checks from a “Virgin Lottery” that didn’t cash, they searched for that on the web and my article and phone number came up. Never mind that my article dealt with the 17th century lottery that helped fund Virginia colonization, they thought I might know something about modern fraud.

General Science

More Waking Hours

There is more than one way to extend the total work and leisure enjoyed during one’s life. In addition to living longer, one can sleep less if it doesn’t degrade the rest of the hours. Not too much research on the latter. Here’s a gem in this week’s Economist; the good news:

With the help of Chiara Cirelli, who also works at the University of Wisconsin, Dr Tononi has created a mutant fruit fly that sleeps only two or three hours a night. (A normal fly sleeps between eight and 14 hours.)

The bad news:

…though the mutant fly is capable of learning things, it forgets them within minutes. Healthy flies retain learned information for hours or even days.

Would you trade your memory like in Johnny Mnemonic, Memento or Paycheck for an extra six hours every day? It’s like living an extra 25 years.