All posts by Andrew Case

General

Back in the USA

I’m back from my travels, which were extended due to the untimely death of my father. I won’t go into detail, since that’s not what you read this blog for. Suffice to say he was a fundamentally good man who lived his faith in every word and deed. If there is an afterlife in which our actions in this life count for anything, then there can be no doubt he is well rewarded. If not, at least he lead a life replete with meaning, filled with life, laughter, and love.

More blogging after I’ve recovered from jet lag.

Space

Boost Phase Intercept Talk

There was a talk at the University of Maryland today by Daniel Kleppner, one of the co-chairs of the American Physical Society’s Boost Phase Missile Defence Study Group. The report is summarized here, and the whole thing is available here.

Anyway, the talk was very well presented, and it’s clear that if you accept the initial assumptions the conclusions follow logically. It’s the input assumptions that are somewhat problematic. I’ve seen people complain that the choice of initial assumptions is due to liberal bias, but Kleppner defended them quite well on the basis of the National Intelligence Estimate and the systems actually under consideration. Some of the parameters considered, such as the burn time, were skewed in favor of the defender, and they considered zero decision time cases, which also favor the defender. The minimum kill vehicle mass considered (90 lbs, including sensors, thrusters and fuel) seemed to me a little large, but I don’t have a basis to dispute it. This is a critically important parameter, since it scales all the other masses in the system.

Continue reading Boost Phase Intercept Talk →

Technology and Society

Sun Outages

From the Risks forum, a submission on sun outages in satellite TV systems. When the receiving antenna, the satellite, and the sun all line up, the satellite signal is swamped by the sun. It’s obvious that this would be a problem once you think about it, but this is the first time I’ve seen consumer level consequences from it. You’d think that cable systems would make a big deal out of this (up to 8 minute outages twice a year), since obviously cable doesn’t have the same issues. As Rand has pointed out many times here and elsewhere, the key to reduced launch costs is markets. Right now satellite TV is doing quite well in competition with cable, but this is a definite competitive disadvantage, which is bad news. The good news is that it’s also a money making opportunity for whoever can figure out how to fix it.

Other items (also here) in the same digest talk about electronic voting machines. We’re entering what is certain to be a nasty campaign, and if things proceed on their current course the results of the election will be tainted by serious problems with electronic voting systems. The last thing America needs in the current global climate is still further internal polarization. Fortunately some smart and dedicated people are working to mitigate the problems, and you can help.

Uncategorized

Empire in the Sky

Via Mark Whittington, a piece in the Washington Times on a new age of exploration. The author, Jeremi Suri, asserts that the Bush space policy could be the start of a new age of exploration similar to that of the 17th and 18th centuries. This is certainly the hope of the vast majority of readers of this blog. The devil, as always, is in the details.

The age of exploration had a lot to do with the efforts of Prince Henry the Navigator, who more or less kickstarted the whole thing. Take a look at the timeline from Henry’s early efforts (1420 onwards) until the beginning of real profitable trade (mid 1450s). The real overseas european empires didn’t really take root for another century. Had Henry and his compatriots thrown all their energies into building an empire spanning the globe, they’d never have had the resources to do the little things that lead to the big things. As it is, they had some adventures, made a name for themselves, and some of them got quite rich. Along the way they laid the groundwork for the empires to come.

We are currently at the Henry the Navigator stage, and we should not lose sight of that fact. The next steps are small and modest, but necessary if we are to move on to bigger and better things. Bush was right to put the emphasis on return to the moon first, despite the fact that most commentators can’t seem to get their minds off Mars. Mars will still be there in 30 years, or however long it takes. In the meantime we have the moon right there, staring us in the face. Near Earth Asteroids are being discovered so fast that it no longer makes news unless they are headed for a near collision with earth. Our Azores and our Guinea are waiting within reach.

Also worth checking out is the wikipedia page on Henry.

Space

SubOrbital Day

It’s fitting that my first post on Transterrestrial Musings is on suborbital industry lobbying – it certainly won’t be my last on this topic.

The Suborbital Institute has announced that it will be holding an event on May 17-18 to lobby congress on issues affecting the nascent suborbital spaceflight industry. If you are in the DC area or are able to travel to the area please join us. I’ll be there, as will various folks from the alt.space crowd. The date is chosen so that people planning to attend the May COMSTAC meeting can just come a couple of days early. I’ve been involved with the SubOrbital Institute since the beginning, and it’s a good bunch of people. SubOrbital days are interesting and fun, though there’s no doubt that it’s real work. I’ll post more on the institute and its agenda in the coming weeks.

On the topic of suborbital spaceflight, X-Rocket has revamped their website and they have some very interesting news. They have a working operational demonstrator for their planned vehicle, and they have test flights. Congratulations to X-Rocket and Ed Wright (who is one of the founders of the SubOrbital Institute). Link via HobbySpace.

That’s enough for now. I’ll post a formal introduction when the current family crisis has passed. I probably won’t be able to post more than occasionally until then.