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"Bold Experimentation"Jonah Goldberg explains why we should fear that Barack Obama will emulate Franklin Roosevelt: there can be a chasm between being right and merely appearing to be right. Why anyone stakes greater value on the appearance than reality is a mystery to me. Don't just do something--stand there! One of his readers says that this also explains the current market volatility: Free market economics involves the application of immutable laws, and it's those laws that allow us to forecast the effect of current events on various companies and the stocks and bonds they've issued. But investors will only play the game if they believe the rules aren't going to change in the middle. When government begins 'experimenting', it makes it harder for investors to generate a long term forecast. This drives long term investors away from the market, or converts them into short term traders. The result is a massive increase in volatility as investors shorten their investment outlook because they can't predict what's going to happen far enough into the future. We can only hope, since we lost an opportunity to do any more than that a couple weeks ago. 0 TrackBacksListed below are links to blogs that reference this entry: "Bold Experimentation". TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.transterrestrial.com/admin/mt-tb.cgi/10728 5 CommentsLeave a comment
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Well, don't just hope and nothing else. I think if enough constituents scream loudly enough about the worst things the Obama administration tries to do, congress will listen at least sometimes. Probably not nearly as much as I would like, but any impediment to the march to serfdom would be good.
Many months ago you expressed confidence that Obama was unelectable, and I expressed concern that he would be elected anyway. I happened to be right then. I believe I'm also right to say we can still do more than just hope. It doesn't ALL have to go down the tubes--we should do what we can.
I didn't mean to imply that we shouldn't fight the "change." I just meant that, as far as a President Obama changing his mind about wanting to be FDR 2.0, we can only hope that he will do so.
When government begins 'experimenting', it makes it harder for investors to generate a long term forecast. This drives long term investors away from the market, or converts them into short term traders.
This person would make a better Treasury Secretary than Paulson. This is why I pulled my money out, several months before the bailout, and am not in a hurry to get back in. I don't have the desire to do short term trades, and I can't work the mojo to figure out what the government will and won't do and what affect the consequences will have (both intended and unintended). So I'm out, and obviously I'm not alone.
What understanding I do have of all this is that I'm probably out until 2 quarters after the government finally stops this bailout foolishness, regardless if they put in or not. Once they stop, it will take a quarter for the affects to start being realized, and then another quarter for them to get reported out formally. So, I see a depression lasting at least 6 months plus how ever long Congress considers tinkering by just throwing cash at the situation.
I'm with Leland, and for that matter with Goldberg and his readers. I'm in a position to hire someone -- but I'm not gonna. Not sure what's up with business taxes, or even my own taxes. So we'll just wait and see. Same with the investment money, although there's no doubt this is a good time to buy stocks for the long term.
This is part of where Obama's sphinxlike Gen Y slacker-cool fucking disconnected demeanor, and the soothing baby-talk babble of meaningless rhetoric, plus the constitutional law professor wish to explore every one of the 1,500 sides to the issue are a real disadvantage. The people who can push the gas pedal on the economy, those with capital to spend, jobs to give out, entrepreneurial ideas to go borrow money on and start up companies to implement, are probably all just holding their wire, waiting to see what The One and his legions are going to do, and, you know, I think he's just got so used to not telling us in the campaign that he's not about to start now.
Fortunately, God has a sense of humor, and the ones most damaged by all this short-term pain are demographically nearly identical with Obama's hardcore voters. Good job, men! Way to aim for the blackguard capitalist oppressors and manage to shoot only yourself instead.
> FDR came into office promising "bold, persistent experimentation" -- and delivered.
Hmm. Experimentation seems to acquire a different meaning when govt is involved.
When I experiment, I try something. If it doesn't work, I give up what failed and try something else.
When does govt give up?
My canonical example is gun control laws. They're often pushed with "let's try an experiment". But, when a gun control law fails, the folks who pushed it insist on keeping it.