On the eve of the upcoming donkey fight, I just want to remind people again that Senator Obama is not the nominee until the delegates vote, and that the Clintons remain the Clintons. Don't think that there aren't a lot of delegates (and nervous superdelegates particularly) passing around recent polls showing Hillary outpolling Obama against McCain.
One could in fact speculate that the selection of Biden was an attempt by a desperate Obama campaign to hang on to the old guard of the party. I suspect that the coming week will be quite entertaining. It's good that McCain can wait until the end of the week to announce his own running mate.
[Update a few minutes later]
It strikes me that if the superdelegates vote to make Senator Obama the nominee, they will have failed in their intended purpose, which was to prevent candidates who were too far left, in the wake of McGovern. But as I've been saying for months now, they're in a no-win situation. They can anoint The One, and have him lose (and probably with negative coattails down ticket) or they can elevate Hillary! and tear the party apart, probably with race riots. Sux to be them.
Barry has moved considerably to the center since "winning" the nomination. I doubt very much that the superdelegates are in much of a quandry. The only thing now is the somehow keep the women at home, so to speak.
K: "The only thing now is the somehow keep the women at home, so to speak."
GFL on that one, K.
As Rand says, sucks to be them.
I doubled my popcorn order.... :-D
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of identity-politics mongers.
So if Obama is confirmed as the candidate it could be highly advantageous for McCain to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate. If Obama then lost the election, Clinton would enter the 2012 primaries with a lot of Democrats thinking that they made a mistake in not choosing her the last time. McCain might well decline to seek re-election in 2012 on age and health grounds, putting VP Palin in a good position to seek the Republican nomination. Therefore a McCain-Palin victory might be a very attractive prospect to the Hillraisers, because it would (a) help Clinton's chances in 2012, (b) punish Obama, and (c) greatly increase the chances of a female President being elected in 2012.
K comments that Obama has moved to the center since wrapping up his slim majority. The missing operative word in that is "attempted" to move to the center. His double-talk, obfuscation and "have-it-both-ways-isms" have gone largely unbelieved and always detected.
This is a melt-down that is going to be a pleasure to watch.
Over all, I find Hillary to be the least objectionable candidate. She would be the least able to accomplish anything in office. Half the country despises her outright. She has a great deal of baggage - most of it known. And her ham-handed campaign proved her to be not very competent. The republicans would feel safe in opposing her, leading to four years of gridlock.
Still not a good bet, but seemingly better than the prospect of His Most Transcendent Awesomeness being annointed President for Life, or John "I'll build their damn fence, if that's what they want" McCain.
As to the prospect of race riots: those will happen whether Obama loses or wins.
One thing that the superdelegates are going to look at is cash. Clinton, according to a quick google search, is in the hole to the tune of $20 million, and the PUMAs don't seem to be making a dent in that. Obama, on the other hand, has cash out the wazoo.
As far as "too liberal" goes, if you look at the two candidate's primary platforms, the differences between them ideologically were slim to none. For better or for worse, Obama is a mainstream Democrat.
The Dems are pretty good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but I wouldn't hold my breath for a convention meltdown.
I just can't believe Clinton would try to wrest the nomination from Obama at this point. I'd think she'd figure there was no way should could win anyway if she did. I'd put her running as an independent at a much higher likelihood, although I'd still be shocked if she did that. My guess is she's hoping for 2012.
I hope Mr. Simberg is right about Obama losing the election, though.
I just read that the Dems voted to restore full voting rights to the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Doesn't that make a Hillary majority a real possibility?
Given that this team appear to have run a pretty tight ship so far, (as one commentator said, "Joe Bidden knew for 36 hours and DIDN'T tell anyone?), I suspect your hopes for a meltdown will be dashed.
The interesting question is if they've been treading water for 4 weeks after the European tour to get this out of the way before starting the campaign in earnest of if they really are as bad at this as the last 2-3 weeks have suggested.
If it's the former then the McCain campaign is going to live to regret running all those juicy Biden ads over the weekend. If it's the later then McCain should have an easy canter through the summer.
While the Rabid Republicans may fantasize about a Last Minute Hill-Fight,
the fact is She's buried her campaign. Her Staff have left for other campaigns,
or gone to work for Obama. She's out trying to retire debt before
January 1, and the Spotlight has been off of her since May.
While she's looking to give a stemwinding speech, and no doubt she
hopes Obama loses so she can go make a run for it in 2012,
her opportunities for 2008 are over.
The Superdelegates have opted for Obama, in large enough quantity as to
prevent her from being nominated, and she has realized that.
Obama is now outraising McCain, and that's a fact. The monetary primary
has already indicated Obama to win. The Battle now shifts to defending
Senate seats.
Wow, took 4 readings to understand what Daveon had written. Thankfully, he provided a clue that a question was being posed, even if he didn't provide punctuation to help identify the question.
So, what is the up side of a campaign threading water for 4 weeks? Saving cash is the only thing I can see as an upside. According to Gerrib, they have plenty of cash. Indeed, reports are they have more cash than McCain.
So, are they really as bad as the last 2-3 weeks? Last 2-3 weeks? He peaked in June and has continued to fall. Some of us noted that he "won" the primary while losing 65% of the vote to Hillary in the final few states that counted.
Given that this team appear to have run a pretty tight ship so far, (as one commentator said, "Joe Bidden knew for 36 hours and DIDN'T tell anyone?), I suspect your hopes for a meltdown will be dashed.
In the vacuum of the 36 hour delay, you had Democrat strategist James Carvell on CNN blasting Obama's campaign for not at least considering Hillary. That doesn't sound like an upside to me.
I don't think there's much doubt Obama's going to be nominated on the first ballot. Then Hillary will "release" her delegates and move for a unanimous consent vote, which he'll get also.
But after that about 1 Democrat in 5 will vote for McCain, meaning there's almost no chance for Obama to be elected. McCain would have to nominate Michael Moore for his Veep and show up at the convention wearing a tiara and his pants backwards to lose the GOP vote. I think that Obama knows this, too. He's not giving up but he knows he only wins if McCain screws up royally. He's quietly dropping his declared "50 states strategy" and pulling the troops in to concentrate on the swing states. He also wouldn't have picked Biden if he weren't planning a pure defensive strategy after the convention.
Obama is playing it safe and hoping for the best.
Leland: 4 goes, not bad and I'm touched you took the time. I left out a fairly critical "or" in the middle of that lot so my apologies. My bad.
If memory serves wasn't Carvell on the Clinton team? So it's hardly surprising he was a bit miffed about it. But he was being pretty pro-Biden when I saw him on CNN on Saturday morning, so he's obviously towing the party line now.
36 hours of blasting is pretty limited out of a multi-month campaign so I don't think they'll be too worried about that in comparison to the huge hit they had with the MSM for keeping it a secret. All the major news organisations were rather noisome in their praise on Saturday.
As for him "peaking" in June. We'll see. It'll be interesting to see if there is a bounce after the convention, and if there is, can he keep it.
As I understand it, he's the best funded democrat candidate in recent history - what I do wonder is if he has the ability to get as aggressive as I expect the McCain team to be. If he can't then he's toast.
"I just read that the Dems voted to restore full voting rights to the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Doesn't that make a Hillary majority a real possibility?"
Nope. With the "pledged" superdelegates Obama has enough committed votes to win on the first ballot, even with Hillary's MI and FL votes added back in.
The Hillary supporters are upset about this because back in spring, when it might have made a difference, Obama opposed re-instating the delegates. Now that it doesn't make any difference he's all for it.
Obama's delay in announcing a VP allowed maximum news coverage & commentary on McCain's houses gaffe.
If memory serves wasn't Carvell on the Clinton team? So it's hardly surprising he was a bit miffed about it. But he was being pretty pro-Biden when I saw him on CNN on Saturday morning, so he's obviously towing the party line now.
Carvell is a paid operative. Unfortunately for Obama, the unpaid delegates don't flop so easily:
Angry Democrats Distracted DNC Attendees in Denver
Hillary Supporters Still Angry
Angry Clinton delegates planning protests
According to Google News, there is 5,400 more stories like those. Et tu, Chicago Tribune?
36 hours of blasting is pretty limited out of a multi-month campaign so I don't think they'll be too worried about that in comparison to the huge hit they had with the MSM for keeping it a secret. All the major news organisations were rather noisome in their praise on Saturday.
The above stories are from Today. Even US News had to admit, "Obama-Clinton Rivalry Dominating Coverage Of Convention".
As for him "peaking" in June. We'll see. It'll be interesting to see if there is a bounce after the convention, and if there is, can he keep it.
Honestly, I expect a bump. Bumps are typical after a convention. Indeed, if Obama doesn't get a bump, then he better hope his campaign has dug up some career ending dirt to throw on McCain. Otherwise, the DNC really is making a mistake not selecting Hillary. I realize party unity is a big thing, but the whole point of Super Delegates is to prevent the masses from picking a weak candidate. If the DNC candidate leaves the convention trailing the RNC guy, then the system failed.
As I understand it, he's the best funded democrat candidate in recent history - what I do wonder is if he has the ability to get as aggressive as I expect the McCain team to be. If he can't then he's toast.
I completely agree with you here. I also think it wouldn't take much for Obama to turn it around. The first thing I would do is recommend he stop his efforts to get Republicans to go to the poll to vote for him. He needs to go back to his base, and then remind Republican voters why they should stay at home and not waste a vote on McCain. It really is that simple.