"Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are looking forward to a convention unified behind Barack Obama as the Party's nominee and to victory this fall for America."
If Clinton managed to grab the nomination from Obama at the Convention she would have to go into the election with a bitterly-divided party. Many Obama supporters would be too angry to vote for her. But if Clinton doesn't get anything, a significant number of Clinton supporters might decline to vote for Obama. He can't afford that now he's running neck-and-neck with McCain. So logically Obama has to do whatever it takes to get her full backing, which probably means offering her the Veepship.
They must both understand this, so chances are that a deal has already been done. However, the Dems need a big post-Convention bounce. The best way to get this is to have a dramatic, emotional (and carefully choreographed) display of reconciliation at the Convention, culminating in the formal announcement of an Obama-Clinton ticket. The party activists would be very relieved that the party had dodged a bullet, and the MSM would explode with joy. Unity preserved, bounce obtained.
I still want to see Obama present Hillary with a copy of Spencer Johnson's Who Moved My Cheese at the convention.
Carl Pham wrote:
Andrew, I suggest you're naive. I don't think many Obama supporters who would refuse to support Hillary!(TM) count. These folks, the netroots starry-eyed youth brigade left, are totally unreliable anyway. If there's a good NBA game on election night, or they just drink too much the Monday before, they won't vote anyway. So who cares about them?
A much bigger problem is the centrist voters who are on Obama's side because he's not Hillary. If he puts Hillary on the ticket he loses the votes of some number of flaky airhead twenty-somethings (BFD) but draws the deep-seated hostility of a whole lot of middle-age folks who are definitely going to vote, and who remember the Clintons with ineradicable distaste. Given that their alternative (McCain) is Republican-lite, a man who could've run as a Democrat in 1992, ferfuxsake, I can easily see them deserting the Wunderkind.
So I'd say there isn't a chance in heck Ms. Clinton is going on the ticket. Too risky. Then again, the Obama team is not known for being strategically brilliant, so maybe they'll do it, in the naive and arrogant thought that the middle-aged women that are Hillary's demographic won't mind playing the supporting second-fiddle role to a man yet again.
Leave a comment
Note: The comment system is functional, but timing out when returning a response page. If you have submitted a comment, DON'T RESUBMIT IT IF/WHEN IT HANGS UP AND GIVES YOU A "500" PAGE. Simply click your browser "Back" button to the post page, and then refresh to see your comment.
About this Entry
This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on August 14, 2008 10:02 AM.
I know I have my popcorn ready. The donk convention is going to be fun.
If Clinton managed to grab the nomination from Obama at the Convention she would have to go into the election with a bitterly-divided party. Many Obama supporters would be too angry to vote for her. But if Clinton doesn't get anything, a significant number of Clinton supporters might decline to vote for Obama. He can't afford that now he's running neck-and-neck with McCain. So logically Obama has to do whatever it takes to get her full backing, which probably means offering her the Veepship.
They must both understand this, so chances are that a deal has already been done. However, the Dems need a big post-Convention bounce. The best way to get this is to have a dramatic, emotional (and carefully choreographed) display of reconciliation at the Convention, culminating in the formal announcement of an Obama-Clinton ticket. The party activists would be very relieved that the party had dodged a bullet, and the MSM would explode with joy. Unity preserved, bounce obtained.
I still want to see Obama present Hillary with a copy of Spencer Johnson's Who Moved My Cheese at the convention.
Andrew, I suggest you're naive. I don't think many Obama supporters who would refuse to support Hillary!(TM) count. These folks, the netroots starry-eyed youth brigade left, are totally unreliable anyway. If there's a good NBA game on election night, or they just drink too much the Monday before, they won't vote anyway. So who cares about them?
A much bigger problem is the centrist voters who are on Obama's side because he's not Hillary. If he puts Hillary on the ticket he loses the votes of some number of flaky airhead twenty-somethings (BFD) but draws the deep-seated hostility of a whole lot of middle-age folks who are definitely going to vote, and who remember the Clintons with ineradicable distaste. Given that their alternative (McCain) is Republican-lite, a man who could've run as a Democrat in 1992, ferfuxsake, I can easily see them deserting the Wunderkind.
So I'd say there isn't a chance in heck Ms. Clinton is going on the ticket. Too risky. Then again, the Obama team is not known for being strategically brilliant, so maybe they'll do it, in the naive and arrogant thought that the middle-aged women that are Hillary's demographic won't mind playing the supporting second-fiddle role to a man yet again.