Rockets For Sale

John Carmack mentioned this at the conference a week and a half ago, but I don't think I reported it, at least not in any detail. Armadillo is willing to sell vehicles to anyone who wants to fly them (presumably subject to ITAR restrictions):

The way to look at it is as a "rocket trainer", rather than a vehicle that can perform any kind of real lunar or suborbital mission. We don't pretend that the vehicles could actually land on the moon, but if you want to hack on a real, flying system, there is a lot of value to be had.

The price is $500k. The experience of the Lunar Lander Challenge shows quite clearly that you aren't likely to do it yourself for less, even if you spend a couple years at it. Several intelligent and competent people thought otherwise, and have been proven incorrect.

You can have either a module or a quad, at your choice. The quad has more hover duration, but it is more of a hassle to operate. A module could be fulfilled right now, a quad would take about three months to build, since we are still planning on using Pixel for LLC this year and other tasks. The engine will be one of our new film cooled stainless chambers, and we will warrant it for ten flights. If it blows up or burns through in that time frame, we will replace it. We will not replace the vehicle if it crashes, but historically our engine problems have been visible at startup, and you should have an opportunity to abort the flight. Ground support equipment is included, except for the lox dewar(s), which would be specific to your local lox vendor. We will test the vehicle ourselves, then train your crew to operate it. You get copies of our experimental permit applications and information about the insurance policies we use for permitted flights. Details on modifications to the flight control software are negotiable.

If he got a big order, or multiple customers who wanted delivery ASAP, I wonder how he'd respond? Would he ramp up production (with the intrinsic risks to quality), or keep supply constant and crank up the price? As I've said for a long time, at some point this is going to have to transition from a hobby to a business for him, and it seems to me that this has the potential to force that decision, if he has a significant number of takers.

I also wonder how much new engines will cost, assuming that they're only good for ten flights (he doesn't say that, but it's all he's willing to warrant them for). Let's say that the engines are half the cost of the vehicle. That would mean a cost of $25K a flight to amortize the engines, which is a lot more than propellant costs. It seems to me that if he only thinks that he can get ten flights, engine life is where his emphasis needs to be for reducing operating costs. It's also hard to see how he can charge the same amount for a module as a quad, since the latter has four engines in it. I'd really like to understand more about this proposition.

He follows up the offer with his assessment of the industry (and his competition), but I'll save my thoughts on that for another post.