My father, Professor Robert Dinkin, the presidential election historian thinks that Clinton will likely emerge the Democratic Party nominee due to her organization and ties to prominent Democratic Party leaders. This despite having recently voted for Obama in the Florida so-called--delegateless--primary. Here is where they stand as of your page load in trading for who will be nominee (security of winner pays $1) on Intrade:
Clinton:
Obama:
Sam
She may still win but it is my understanding that a very large part of that party leadership is abandoning her. She may win them back if she wins big in super tuesday but from what I am hearing this is going to probably be a blood battle all the way to the convention. If this is the case, then all those people who Clinton has pissed off (Bill not Hill) are going to bail on her for Obama.
We will know more after Tuesday.
She may still win but it is my understanding that a very large part of that party leadership is abandoning her.
And since many of the 'superdelegates' come from the party leadership and notables, not the primaries, this would be bad news indeed for her.
Prof. Dinkin points to Maxine Waters as someone who supports Clinton. To Feinstein and Boxer. To other old school Democrats who liked Bill.
I remember Bill as a fighter. We'll see if Hillary can do at least as good as he did.
Dinkin discounts the Oprah factor. I am agnostic and point to the 60-40 Intrade prices to say that Barack has a very good chance, but not better.
I note that Obama is young and that we will see him again if he doesn't win.
My prognostication:
Obama beats Hillary! in the vote. Hillary steals the election through superdelegates and having the Democratic party recind the sanctions against early voting states.
Hillary is then soundly defeated in the primary.