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Ares Woes Ongoing

Av Week has a fairly detailed technical description of the thrust oscillation problem:

"Conservative" calculations of the potential frequency and amplitude of a thrust oscillation that could occur in the first stage as it nears burnout, and of the way that vibration links to the rest of the vehicle, suggest that it could set up a resonance that would damage critical components and harm the crew (AW&ST Dec. 10, 2007, p. 60).

A thrust-oscillation "focus team," convened in November 2007, has since calculated that the problem may not be as severe as it appeared earlier in the fall. But the work continues under a looming March deadline, set so designers on both the launch vehicle and Orion can start work in earnest on mitigating the effect, if necessary, before preliminary design review (PDR) at the end of the summer.

"That gives us a good view of the problem with what we see as how big the risk is, [along with] what are the right mitigation strategies for any residual risk left, so that going into PDR we have a good handle on it and we're designing for it," says Garry Lyles, an experienced launch vehicle engineer at Marshall who heads the focus team. "You're not waiting downstream of the [PDR] to start designing your system to accommodate the oscillation."

Emphasis mine. If it "may not be," it also "may be." This goes beyond risk (which is quantifiable), into uncertainty, which by definition is not, and that's an unhappy place for an engineer to be. They continue with the "may not be" language.

...the focus team has since calculated that the problem may not be as severe as originally feared. Nominally the oscillation frequency of a five-segment booster is 12 Hz. (compared with 15 Hz. for the four-segment version). But after that it gets complicated. Translating RSRM ground-test data into accurate forcing function figures and the stack's response to that force is extremely difficult, particularly since the upper-stage and Orion designs remain immature and oscillation data are based on ground tests.

They can do flight tests on a Shuttle SRB, but that still won't tell them how a five-segment motor will behave (though it will give them better data with which to model it). But as it notes, there's no way to model the dynamic structural behavior of the stack, because they don't have enough fidelity in the design. They are risking going into a program, spending billions more, without certain knowledge that they'll have a viable system until they're well along in the development, at which point they might find out that they have to essentially start over from scratch.

...if the problem doesn't go away with more data and more refined calculations, or can't be fixed with propellant redesign, then isolation pads and other mechanical fixes probably will add weight to the overall vehicle. Making it work could eat into the weight margins held at various levels of the Ares I and Orion programs (AW&ST Dec. 10, 2007, p. 52).

Although the problem isn't fully understood, none of the NASA engineers involved in solving it sees it as a show-stopper.

"I hope this is the worst we've got to deal with," says NASA Administrator Michael Griffin.

Well, apparently, they're not allowed to see it as a show stopper. People get fired for pointing out that the emperor is naked.

As Dr. Laura says, hope has no power, Mike. It is not a plan. And there are numerous other solutions.

 
 

17 Comments

Tom wrote:

There seem to be some problems with your formatting. Probably the new system.

Dennis Ray Wingo wrote:

Rand

Every solid rocket that I have ever flown a payload on has these problems and it is no surprise that the SRB has them in spades. If you look at NASA video of the crew during the SRB burn you can see these low frequency oscillations on the crew. Now with the damping inside the ET it is of a much lower amplitude but it is still there. I have flown accelerometers on the Shuttle and it would be fairly trivial to fly a set in the crew compartment, cargo bay, and even on the SRB's (you don't have to put them on the inside of the booster) to get an idea of the frequency. There will probably be some dispersion of the signal due to the fact that you have two boosters that operate at not exactly the same frequency that will add a spread function to the signal so you probably need to instrument both boosters to get a handle on this to take it out of the final model.

This is anything but a trivial problem and for MIke to be dismissive does not bode well.


Rand wrote:

Yes, it seems to be weirding out on quote marks. I'll have to look at encoding.

Anonymous wrote:

NASA is in a major panic over this issue. All of the proposed solutions cost mass, lots of it.

Jonathan wrote:

Looks like an open bold tag.

Also, I think that your default character encoding changed from ISO-8859-1 to UTF-8 -- not that there's anything wrong with that.

Jonathan wrote:

Looks like an open bold tag.

Also, I think that your default character encoding changed from ISO-8859-1 to UTF-8 -- not that there's anything wrong with that.

cheesehead ? wrote:

If I read it correctly the flight test they want to do won't take place until 2009. Nice....keep plugging away, and spending money of course, on something that you'll find out won't work. Sounds like NASA.

Dennis Ray Wingo wrote:

Cheezy

Yea I read that but there is really no reason not to fly accelerometers at least in a Mid Deck locker to get data.

Heck I have a qualified set right now that they could use that have already flown multiple times.


Mark R. Whittington wrote:

Rand is using selective quotes to make the problem seem more severe than it actually is. Here's something he neglected to point out in the article:

"But the focus team has since calculated that the problem may not be as severe as originally feared. Nominally the oscillation frequency of a five-segment booster is 12 Hz. (compared with 15 Hz. for the four-segment version). But after that it gets complicated. Translating RSRM ground-test data into accurate forcing function figures and the stack’s response to that force is extremely difficult, particularly since the upper-stage and Orion designs remain immature and oscillation data are based on ground tests.

"Lyles says oscillation may not be as well-organized—and destructive—as feared, and may even be random instead of a steady wave that can resonate with the rest of the vehicle. And even if it isn’t, the vehicle response may not be as severe as possible. The shuttle stack is “insensitive” to the frequencies generated by its four-segment boosters, and because of the timing of the oscillations the Ares I structure may already be robust enough to handle the most serious loads. That would limit needed fixes to subsystems, which should be easier."

So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club seems to hope (speaking of not having a plan), a complete disaster that will sink the entire program.

Rand wrote:

Mark, you ignore all the "mays" in those quotes in which you take so much misguided comfort. But then, not being a member of your mythical "Internet Rocketeer Club," perhaps you just don't understand the implications.

Mark "Internet Rocketeer" Shittington wrote:

"So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design"

If Shittington had an ounce of aerospace engineering education or experience, he wouldn't have to deduce that "it looks like" every rocket has acoustic issues -- he'd know it.

And Shittington would also know that these issues come in different flavors -- POGO, resonant burn, etc.

And Shittington would know that the "average 4.3g" forces mentioned in the article means that Ares I's solid motor first-stage will induce transient forces in the 8-10g range, at the limits of human endurance and imposing large mass penalties to shield the systems on the upper stage and Orion.

And Shittington would know that the mass margins on the upper stage and Orion are already stretched thin, with no redundancy on some subsystems and no ability to absorb such huge mass penalties without completely rethinking Orion's size and requirements.

But no, Shittington has no such education or experience, so he grasps at second-hand straws and punctuation in a non-technical article to hold onto poorly conceived and ill-informed opinions.

"and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club"

And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history? Rejection letters from the publishing houses that wouldn't print his lousy science fiction novels? Self-published masturbatory dittohead editorials? Weird, pedophilic reviews of Harry Potter books and movies?

Shittington should stop throwing rocks through his glass house at persons with actual, relevant expertise to bear on subjects relating to NASA and space.

Mark "Internet Rocketeer" Shittington wrote:

"So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design"

If Shittington had an ounce of aerospace engineering education or experience, he wouldn't have to deduce that "it looks like" every rocket has acoustic issues -- he'd know it.

And Shittington would also know that these issues come in different flavors -- POGO, resonant burn, etc.

And Shittington would know that the "average 4.3g" forces mentioned in the article means that Ares I's solid motor first-stage will induce transient forces in the 8-10g range, at the limits of human endurance and imposing large mass penalties to shield the systems on the upper stage and Orion.

And Shittington would know that the mass margins on the upper stage and Orion are already stretched thin, with no redundancy on some subsystems and no ability to absorb such huge mass penalties without completely rethinking Orion's size and requirements.

But no, Shittington has no such education or experience, so he grasps at second-hand straws and punctuation in a non-technical article to hold onto poorly conceived and ill-informed opinions.

"and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club"

And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history? Rejection letters from the publishing houses that wouldn't print his lousy science fiction novels? Self-published masturbatory dittohead editorials? Weird, pedophilic reviews of Harry Potter books and movies?

Shittington should stop throwing rocks through his glass house at persons with actual, relevant expertise to bear on subjects relating to NASA and space.

Edward Wright wrote:

And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history?

You mean besides co-founding the "Clear Lake Group" with noted fighter pilot/Navy SEAL/satellite expert/Annapolis professor/Apollo astronaut/secret agent Robert Oler?

What other credentials could you possibly need, when you've been the sidekick to a superhero? :-)

Edward Wright wrote:

Does anyone read Mark's blog?

The noted "space policy analyst" now has a story about how if Nixon hadn't cancelled Apollo, NASA would have discovered a cure for Alzheimer's!

Because they would have a cool space station to do medical research.

Oh, wait a minute. NASA does have a space station to do medical research -- and they haven't discovered a cure for Alzheimer's.

What a maroon.

Edward Wright wrote:

Does anyone read Mark's blog?

The noted "space policy analyst" now has a story about how if Nixon hadn't cancelled Apollo, NASA would have discovered a cure for Alzheimer's!

Because they would have a cool space station to do medical research.

Oh, wait a minute. NASA does have a space station to do medical research -- and they haven't discovered a cure for Alzheimer's.

What a maroon.

A third idiot wrote:

Maroon = chestnut color

Moron = those that misspell moron

Tom wrote:

3rd-

Check your Bugs Bunny lore. Maroon is the way he pronounced moron.

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This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on January 29, 2008 5:48 AM.

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