|
Reader's Favorites
Media Casualties Mount Administration Split On Europe Invasion Administration In Crisis Over Burgeoning Quagmire Congress Concerned About Diversion From War On Japan Pot, Kettle On Line Two... Allies Seize Paris The Natural Gore Book Sales Tank, Supporters Claim Unfair Tactics Satan Files Lack Of Defamation Suit Why This Blog Bores People With Space Stuff A New Beginning My Hit Parade
Instapundit (Glenn Reynolds) Tim Blair James Lileks Bleats Virginia Postrel Kausfiles Winds Of Change (Joe Katzman) Little Green Footballs (Charles Johnson) Samizdata Eject Eject Eject (Bill Whittle) Pajamas Media Space
Alan Boyle (MSNBC) Space Politics (Jeff Foust) Space Transport News (Clark Lindsey) NASA Watch NASA Space Flight Personal Spaceflight (Jeff Foust) Rockets And Such Hyperbola (Rob Coppinger) Hobby Space A Voyage To Arcturus (Jay Manifold) Dispatches From The Final Frontier (Michael Belfiore) The Flame Trench (Florida Today) Orlando Sentinel Mars Blog Space Cynic Curmudgeon's Corner (Mark Whittington) Selenian Boondocks Tales of the Heliosphere Spaceports (Jack Kennedy) Out Of The Cradle Robot Guy (Ed Minchau) Parabolic Arc Space For Commerce (Brian Dunbar) Space Revolution (Ferris Valyn) A Babe In The Universe (L. Riofrio) Space Pragmatism (Dan Schrimpsher) Carried Away (Dan Schmelzer) True Anomaly Space Law Probe (Jesse Londin) Planetary Society (Emily Lakdawalla) Space Solar Power (Colonel Michael "Coyote" Smith) Back Off Government Chair Force Engineer (Air Force Procurement) Space, What Now (Tom Hill) Life At The Frontier (Joe Gillin) Troubadour (Brian Swiderski) Space Prizes Spacearium Saturn Follies JesusPhreaks (Scott Bell) Science
Nanobot (Howard Lovy) Lagniappe (Derek Lowe) Geek Press (Paul Hsieh) Gene Expression Carl Zimmer Turned Up To Eleven (Paul Orwin) Cowlix (Wes Cowley) Economics/Finance
Asymmetrical Information (Jane Galt and Mindles H. Dreck) Marginal Revolution (Tyler Cowen et al) Man Without Qualities (Robert Musil) Knowledge Problem (Lynne Kiesling) The Funny Pages
Cox & Forkum Day By Day Iowahawk Happy Fun Pundit Jim Treacher IMAO The Onion Amish Tech Support (Lawrence Simon) Scrapple Face (Scott Ott) Regular Reading
Quasipundit (Adragna & Vehrs) England's Sword (Iain Murray) Daily Pundit (Bill Quick) Pejman Pundit Daimnation! (Damian Penny) Aspara Girl Flit Z+ Blog (Andrew Zolli) Matt Welch Ken Layne The Kolkata Libertarian Midwest Conservative Journal Protein Wisdom (Jeff Goldstein et al) Dean's World (Dean Esmay) Yippee-Ki-Yay (Kevin McGehee) Vodka Pundit Richard Bennett Victory Soap (Andrea Harris) Random Jottings (John Weidner) Natalie Solent On the Third Hand (Kathy Kinsley, Bellicose Woman) Patrick Ruffini Inappropriate Response (Moira Breen) Jerry Pournelle Other Worthy Weblogs
Ain't No Bad Dude (Brian Linse) Airstrip One A libertarian reads the papers Andrew Olmsted Anna Franco Review Ben Kepple's Daily Rant Bjorn Staerk Bitter Girl Catallaxy Files Dawson.com Dodgeblog Dropscan (Shiloh Bucher) End the War on Freedom Fevered Rants Fredrik Norman Heretical Ideas Ideas etc Insolvent Republic of Blogistan James Reuben Haney Libertarian Rant Matthew Edgar Mind over what matters Muslimpundit Page Fault Interrupt Photodude Privacy Digest Quare Rantburg Recovering Liberal Sand In The Gears(Anthony Woodlief) Sgt. Stryker The Blogs of War The Fly Bottle The Illuminated Donkey Unqualified Offerings What she really thinks Where HipHop & Libertarianism Meet Zem : blog Space Policy Links
Space Future The Space Review The Space Show Space Frontier Foundation Space Policy Digest BBS AWOL
USS Clueless (Steven Den Beste) Media Minder Unremitting Verse (Will Warren) World View (Brink Lindsay) The Last Page More Than Zero (Andrew Hofer) Pathetic Earthlings (Andrew Lloyd) Spaceship Summer (Derek Lyons) The New Space Age (Rob Wilson) Rocketman (Mark Oakley) Mazoo Rocket Forge (Michael Mealing) COTS Watch (Michael Mealing) Spacecraft (Chris Hall) Kevin Parkin Laughing Wolf (C. Blake Powers) Quark Soup (Dave Appell) Site designed by Powered by Movable Type 4.0 |
Ares Woes OngoingAv Week has a fairly detailed technical description of the thrust oscillation problem: "Conservative" calculations of the potential frequency and amplitude of a thrust oscillation that could occur in the first stage as it nears burnout, and of the way that vibration links to the rest of the vehicle, suggest that it could set up a resonance that would damage critical components and harm the crew (AW&ST Dec. 10, 2007, p. 60). Emphasis mine. If it "may not be," it also "may be." This goes beyond risk (which is quantifiable), into uncertainty, which by definition is not, and that's an unhappy place for an engineer to be. They continue with the "may not be" language. ...the focus team has since calculated that the problem may not be as severe as originally feared. Nominally the oscillation frequency of a five-segment booster is 12 Hz. (compared with 15 Hz. for the four-segment version). But after that it gets complicated. Translating RSRM ground-test data into accurate forcing function figures and the stack's response to that force is extremely difficult, particularly since the upper-stage and Orion designs remain immature and oscillation data are based on ground tests. They can do flight tests on a Shuttle SRB, but that still won't tell them how a five-segment motor will behave (though it will give them better data with which to model it). But as it notes, there's no way to model the dynamic structural behavior of the stack, because they don't have enough fidelity in the design. They are risking going into a program, spending billions more, without certain knowledge that they'll have a viable system until they're well along in the development, at which point they might find out that they have to essentially start over from scratch. ...if the problem doesn't go away with more data and more refined calculations, or can't be fixed with propellant redesign, then isolation pads and other mechanical fixes probably will add weight to the overall vehicle. Making it work could eat into the weight margins held at various levels of the Ares I and Orion programs (AW&ST Dec. 10, 2007, p. 52). Well, apparently, they're not allowed to see it as a show stopper. People get fired for pointing out that the emperor is naked. As Dr. Laura says, hope has no power, Mike. It is not a plan. And there are numerous other solutions. 17 CommentsLeave a comment
Note: The comment system is functional, but timing out when returning a response page. If you have submitted a comment, DON'T RESUBMIT IT IF/WHEN IT HANGS UP AND GIVES YOU A "500" PAGE. Simply click your browser "Back" button to the post page, and then refresh to see your comment.
|
There seem to be some problems with your formatting. Probably the new system.
Rand
Every solid rocket that I have ever flown a payload on has these problems and it is no surprise that the SRB has them in spades. If you look at NASA video of the crew during the SRB burn you can see these low frequency oscillations on the crew. Now with the damping inside the ET it is of a much lower amplitude but it is still there. I have flown accelerometers on the Shuttle and it would be fairly trivial to fly a set in the crew compartment, cargo bay, and even on the SRB's (you don't have to put them on the inside of the booster) to get an idea of the frequency. There will probably be some dispersion of the signal due to the fact that you have two boosters that operate at not exactly the same frequency that will add a spread function to the signal so you probably need to instrument both boosters to get a handle on this to take it out of the final model.
This is anything but a trivial problem and for MIke to be dismissive does not bode well.
Yes, it seems to be weirding out on quote marks. I'll have to look at encoding.
NASA is in a major panic over this issue. All of the proposed solutions cost mass, lots of it.
Looks like an open bold tag.
Also, I think that your default character encoding changed from ISO-8859-1 to UTF-8 -- not that there's anything wrong with that.
Looks like an open bold tag.
Also, I think that your default character encoding changed from ISO-8859-1 to UTF-8 -- not that there's anything wrong with that.
If I read it correctly the flight test they want to do won't take place until 2009. Nice....keep plugging away, and spending money of course, on something that you'll find out won't work. Sounds like NASA.
Cheezy
Yea I read that but there is really no reason not to fly accelerometers at least in a Mid Deck locker to get data.
Heck I have a qualified set right now that they could use that have already flown multiple times.
Rand is using selective quotes to make the problem seem more severe than it actually is. Here's something he neglected to point out in the article:
"But the focus team has since calculated that the problem may not be as severe as originally feared. Nominally the oscillation frequency of a five-segment booster is 12 Hz. (compared with 15 Hz. for the four-segment version). But after that it gets complicated. Translating RSRM ground-test data into accurate forcing function figures and the stack’s response to that force is extremely difficult, particularly since the upper-stage and Orion designs remain immature and oscillation data are based on ground tests.
"Lyles says oscillation may not be as well-organized—and destructive—as feared, and may even be random instead of a steady wave that can resonate with the rest of the vehicle. And even if it isn’t, the vehicle response may not be as severe as possible. The shuttle stack is “insensitive” to the frequencies generated by its four-segment boosters, and because of the timing of the oscillations the Ares I structure may already be robust enough to handle the most serious loads. That would limit needed fixes to subsystems, which should be easier."
So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club seems to hope (speaking of not having a plan), a complete disaster that will sink the entire program.
Mark, you ignore all the "mays" in those quotes in which you take so much misguided comfort. But then, not being a member of your mythical "Internet Rocketeer Club," perhaps you just don't understand the implications.
"So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design"
If Shittington had an ounce of aerospace engineering education or experience, he wouldn't have to deduce that "it looks like" every rocket has acoustic issues -- he'd know it.
And Shittington would also know that these issues come in different flavors -- POGO, resonant burn, etc.
And Shittington would know that the "average 4.3g" forces mentioned in the article means that Ares I's solid motor first-stage will induce transient forces in the 8-10g range, at the limits of human endurance and imposing large mass penalties to shield the systems on the upper stage and Orion.
And Shittington would know that the mass margins on the upper stage and Orion are already stretched thin, with no redundancy on some subsystems and no ability to absorb such huge mass penalties without completely rethinking Orion's size and requirements.
But no, Shittington has no such education or experience, so he grasps at second-hand straws and punctuation in a non-technical article to hold onto poorly conceived and ill-informed opinions.
"and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club"
And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history? Rejection letters from the publishing houses that wouldn't print his lousy science fiction novels? Self-published masturbatory dittohead editorials? Weird, pedophilic reviews of Harry Potter books and movies?
Shittington should stop throwing rocks through his glass house at persons with actual, relevant expertise to bear on subjects relating to NASA and space.
"So it looks like the oscillation problem is just one of the standard teething difficuties inherent in any new design"
If Shittington had an ounce of aerospace engineering education or experience, he wouldn't have to deduce that "it looks like" every rocket has acoustic issues -- he'd know it.
And Shittington would also know that these issues come in different flavors -- POGO, resonant burn, etc.
And Shittington would know that the "average 4.3g" forces mentioned in the article means that Ares I's solid motor first-stage will induce transient forces in the 8-10g range, at the limits of human endurance and imposing large mass penalties to shield the systems on the upper stage and Orion.
And Shittington would know that the mass margins on the upper stage and Orion are already stretched thin, with no redundancy on some subsystems and no ability to absorb such huge mass penalties without completely rethinking Orion's size and requirements.
But no, Shittington has no such education or experience, so he grasps at second-hand straws and punctuation in a non-technical article to hold onto poorly conceived and ill-informed opinions.
"and not, as apparently the Internet Rocketeer Club"
And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history? Rejection letters from the publishing houses that wouldn't print his lousy science fiction novels? Self-published masturbatory dittohead editorials? Weird, pedophilic reviews of Harry Potter books and movies?
Shittington should stop throwing rocks through his glass house at persons with actual, relevant expertise to bear on subjects relating to NASA and space.
And what exactly are Shittington's aerospace engineering analysis credentials? A (suppossed) bachelor's degree in history?
You mean besides co-founding the "Clear Lake Group" with noted fighter pilot/Navy SEAL/satellite expert/Annapolis professor/Apollo astronaut/secret agent Robert Oler?
What other credentials could you possibly need, when you've been the sidekick to a superhero? :-)
Does anyone read Mark's blog?
The noted "space policy analyst" now has a story about how if Nixon hadn't cancelled Apollo, NASA would have discovered a cure for Alzheimer's!
Because they would have a cool space station to do medical research.
Oh, wait a minute. NASA does have a space station to do medical research -- and they haven't discovered a cure for Alzheimer's.
What a maroon.
Does anyone read Mark's blog?
The noted "space policy analyst" now has a story about how if Nixon hadn't cancelled Apollo, NASA would have discovered a cure for Alzheimer's!
Because they would have a cool space station to do medical research.
Oh, wait a minute. NASA does have a space station to do medical research -- and they haven't discovered a cure for Alzheimer's.
What a maroon.
Maroon = chestnut color
Moron = those that misspell moron
3rd-
Check your Bugs Bunny lore. Maroon is the way he pronounced moron.