Pithy

I haven’t had much to say about the Miers nomination, but a fellow blogger asked me last night at dinner what I thought about it. A lot of other people are discussing this, but all I’ll say is that I think that it’s the most boneheaded thing that the president has done during his presidency.

SpaceX Launch Delay

I learned from Gwynne Shotwell today that SpaceX has delayed the launch of the Falcon I from their earlier planned date of October 31st to later in November. She didn’t describe any particular issue, other than that they want to take a little more time to make sure that they get everything right on this flight, which is their maiden one, and will be crucial to the credibility of their future endeavors. Unfortunately, if they delay past the third week of November, they’ll lose their launch site in Kwajalein for a couple months, so if it doesn’t fly in November, it won’t fly until next year.

Good luck to them–a lot of hopes are riding on a company that can demonstrate that orbit doesn’t have to cost as much, or take as long to develop, as conventional wisdom would indicate.

Last Of The Titans

Folks in southern California will have an opportunity to see the last Titan IV launch out of Vandenberg in about an hour, at 11:04 AM Pacific time. If the sky is clear, go outside and look to the west. Spaceflightnow is blogging the countdown.

[Update a couple minutes later]

To clarify, it’s the last Titan IV (or Titan anything) launch, period. It just happens to be launching out of Vandenberg. And with its retirement, Delta IV can take over as reigning pad queen.

[Update at 11 AM PDT]

I don’t know if it was the Transterrestrialanche, or what, but SpaceFlightNow is now down.

[Update at 11:30 PDT]

Well, it apparently launched, but I didn’t see it. There was a slight marine layer, and it may have obscured the view.

Living In The Future

Just a note to say that I’m waiting for my plane to LA, and that Fort Lauderdale airport has wireless capability throughout the terminal. They also have power outlets next to the seats so I don’t have to run down my battery, and can save it for the plane trip. Once they have wireless in the airplanes, I’ll never get away from the blogging ball and chain…

Flu Update

Roche just announced they are sub-licensing Tamiflu broadly. WSJ picked up the story (subscription required) and noted that some countries aren’t waiting and have allowed generic production infringing Roche’s patents.

I was able to obtain some more Tamiflu today here in Austin at my local People’s Pharmacy. While there is apparently tremendous pressure on Roche at the international level, it looks like the rest of the supply chain has not yet picked up on the coming shortage and telegraphed the price rise. Gas prices these are not.

With no human to human transmission yet, it is hard to produce a vaccine because we do not know what the final pathogen will look like as it has not mutated yet. The risk is that it will spread quickly, but another risk is that it will not spread at all unfairly delegitimizing everyone who raised the warning.

It’s a lot to ask people to st0ckpile their own Tamiflu (40 doses is about $300 enough for two acute courses if you show symptoms or 40 days worth of deterrence). But it lasts for three flu seasons. Spending $100/person per year would be $30 billion/year. Roche might part with a license to sell at a few cents a pill in those volumes and the post office distribute it getting the price down to a few bucks a person a year.

But who will st0ckpile it for you if you don’t do it yourself? All it takes is 1% of families to buy to make personal st0ckpiling bigger than Roche’s US sales in a single flu season. There were only 13,000 prescriptions last year. So if 1% of families bought demand would be increased by a factor of a hundred. Then maybe the wheels of government would move to build some more “push packs” for flu and not just bioterror.

While we are talking good public health policy, maybe we could use Tamiflu prophylactically every year in hard hit regions and not wait for bird flu. This and other measures like more widespread vaccination outreach may even cut the tens of thousands of deaths from regular flu seasons down to the 160 of a typical hurricane season. It would also give the Center for Disease Control good practice.

Back In Town

But just for a day or so. I got back yesterday, but I’m on a flight for California this afternoon, where I’ll be working, attending a workshop on DoD responsive launch initiatives, and going to the Space Frontier Conference this weekend (which you should attend as well, if you’re interested in this stuff). Blogging may be light.

I’m also keeping the house buttoned up in case Wilma pays a visit while I’m gone (though Patricia will be here). I had hoped that I could take down the shutters, and take down the ugly steel front door, and put on the pretty one, but I guess it will have to wait until the end of October now. This has been a long hurricane season.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!