9 thoughts on “The Lockdowns”

1. Michigan is going to have some problems. I agree with their supreme court, and I think many governors, mayors, county officials have exceeded their emergency powers. Most are reasonably limited to a 30 to 90 day timetable.

   Places are opening up, the spread (that we were originally only suppose to flatten or delay to allow hospitals to prepare) will increase, because you can only delay the inevitable until herd immunity kicks in. However, some cap may be needed, and now the governor has lost trust and technically her authority. Had she followed the legislation, this would have played out months ago and they would be further along, like Texas and Florida.

2. But it did shoot the economy i the foot. So . . . mission accomplished!

3. At 7,453,582 confirmed cases in the US, contact tracing? Seriously? https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
   Assume you have been exposed. You may not have gotten sick because you didn’t get enough of a viral load. That doesn’t mean you are immune. If you had a mild case you might be susceptible again. If you went the full boat you are likely immune now. Fortunately our treatment regimen is vastly improved today over what it was 6 mos. ago if you do get sick. We are in the beginning of another wave as cold weather sets in and the humidity in the air drops. But the outcomes, thanks to improved treatments, are going to be far better than at the beginning of the year.

   1. Sad to say it, but many of the most vulnerable have likely already died. From what I’m hearing, the surplus death rate may have actually dropped since the summer. Everyone is going to die of something. Many of the most vulnerable people (typically nursing home patients) would likely have died this year or next regardless. My wife is a retired nurse. Nursing homes are referred to as “God’s Waiting Room.”

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

      1. We still have a huge at risk population. I hope they live a long time to come. Many of the co-morbitities are conditions that people live with for a long long time. Living life as normal seems pretty safe for anyone but the elderly, even if a youngish person gets sick, it isn’t a death sentence.

         I’d be more comfortable with most of us returning to a more normal life if we took better precaution for those most at risk. It is pretty easy for people to forget what is going on and not act with the care they should because as individuals, they aren’t at risk.

         A lot of at risk people also have the attitude that something will get them eventually and its best to carry on living their lives.

4. WA had a lockdown and it was bad for the economy but it did limit the cases. Lifting the lock down saw an increase in cases but they didn’t explode until the race riots. Is it all an acceptable level? Who knows but it probably depends on how at risk you are.

   One thing to remember is that even in the lock down, there was still a lot of activity as many still worked and those who didn’t, were running around town doing things.

   1. There is also the little reported fact that the sensitivity threshold for many of the tests is set way too high, resulting in a lot of false positives.

      https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/08/31/the-new-york-times-does-accidental-journalism-on-covid-19-testing-n867152

5. Out here in God’s country we have had many spikes in the weekly charts, but most can be traced to nursing home outbreaks. The lock downs are beneficial in cities that rely on mass transit to function. That same lock down is slowly choking those places to death. So for most city dwellers the options are; wait for the vaccines, or flee. I think you can only hold out as long as your rent is paid and you pantry looks good. But at some point you have to go.

6. From the National Review article:

   Something caused this overall decline. It couldn’t have been lockdowns, which weren’t maintained (or heeded) in full force through June. At the moment, we can only speculate. But if this virus is like others, its decline is likely attributable to some mix of changing seasons and the gradual onset of herd immunity.

   Many people partially locked themselves down before governments acted — just look at how restaurant business suffered in early March. To the extent that official lockdowns amplified and lengthened the effect, they may have contributed significantly to the decline in cases. Whether the official lockdowns were worthwhile is another question, but the article’s conclusion that

   The evidence suggests, then, that the sweeping, mandated lockdowns that followed voluntary responses exacted a great cost, with little effect on transmission.

   does not follow logically.

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