It doesn’t look like Florida is going to avoid getting hit by Ernesto. Even the southeast coast (where I am) is in the cone, though to the extreme right side of it. I hope we’ll have a better idea of the situation by tomorrow.

[Update at noon]

Looking at the current forecast track, it’s looking an awful lot like Hurricane Charley a couple of years ago, that originally projected to come ashore in Tampa, but unexectedly took a right turn short of the goal, and pounded southwest Florida pretty hard. Batten down the hatches, Kathy.

[Update at 3 PM]

The latest Accuweather track seems way out of bed with everyone else (NHS, Weather Underground, Weather Channel). It has a much faster storm, heading up the Florida peninsula on Tuesday (forget about launching the Shuttle this week–they’ll almost certainly have to roll back to the VAB). And we’re right in the bulls eye (though at least it would be coming up through the swamp, so minimal storm surge).

Everyone else still centers it off the gulf coast, and not hitting until Wednesday. I hope that everyone else is right, but it looks like we’ll probably have to shutter up tomorrow. Anyone know why the disparity?

[Update a couple minutes later]

I just figured it out. They have their days mislabeled. They think that today is Saturday. That’s a relief, but I still don’t like the eastward trend of their track.

[Evening update]

It’s been downgraded to a tropical storm. Jeff Masters thinks there’s a good chance that it won’t be able to recover to hurricane strength in the Florida straights, and could come on shore as a tropical storm or a low-level hurrican at most.

…given Ernesto’s small size and the difficulty he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.

Here’s hoping.