The budget crisis in Sacramento may affect California’s bond ratings with S&P. This bombshell will hit this summer, when people are starting to pay attention to the race.

While Davis is indeed a vicious campaigner, I don’t think that anything that he can do at this point can reverse his negatives in peoples’ minds. The Republicans could probably run Goofy against him and win in November. Simon is still ahead in the latest Field Poll (though it’s within the margin of error).

But when an incumbent can only get 40% support for reelection right after the primary, he’s in deep, deep kimchi.