7 thoughts on “North Korea”

  1. I’m pretty skeptical, too. People say “what can’t continue, won’t” but I don’t see anything internal to stop it. It would take a push from the outside. Not much of one, as the army is a shell, but internal security is still good.

    China might provide that push. The South is building up their army because of the North’s threat, and this has China annoyed. They (China) might do something to remove the threat to the South.

    1. Not buying NK “annoying” China. NK complicates the strategy of the US and it’s allies in the area. Consequently, they’ve been sending in enough food and material to keep the Norks propped up as a secret “hard power” proxy state. The nuke development will keep the South in check while China continues to make friends and move ahead with soft diplomacy.

  2. No kidding. I also don’t believe the Chinese’s excuse that the Norks got their fancy TELs from them because they bought them as logging trucks either. It’s not exactly an inconspicuous item. The Norks also seem to be having some Russian help to design their SLBMs and the KN-14.

    If the Chinese make a move on North Korea they might as well invade South Korea and Taiwan next in order to capture their industrial infrastructure. It would be a major blow to the worldwide semiconductor industry. Nearly all the DRAM and chip foundry resources are in those two countries. It would probably take at least two years for the industry to recover if not five or more. Then again there are little chances of it happening at this moment.

    The Chinese ground forces equipment is utterly obsolete and NORINCO keeps churning out crap and more crap. The only thing they do well is artillery and fire control systems. Their tanks and APCs are shit (chassis, armor, suspension, gun). South Korea is too hard to swallow in a conventional engagement unless they just nuke it out of the map.

    The Chinese are getting kinda anxious about the THAAD system getting into South Korea. But I think what would be even more alarming for them would be if the South Koreans got multi-layered defense systems like the Israeli Arrow and Iron Dome. South Korea is probably one of the few countries outside of Israel where those kinds of systems would make sense.

    1. Leaving aside all geopolitical concerns, the fact is that, although China has significantly beefed up their navy, they still do not have anything like the force that would be required to transport an army of invasion across the Straight of Taiwan, even against only Taiwanese opposition, to say nothing of the U.S..

  3. Barring outside intervention or outright revolution, a ‘toppling’ nation can continue indefinitely before it actually falls over. Witness Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Also remember that both China and South Korea have reasons to not want to see NK dissolve, and both will help it keep on staggering along.

  4. It is inevitable that a regime like North Korea will collapse. But such collapses tend to happen with little warning, triggered by unpredictable events.

Comments are closed.