The 2016 annual report is out. I haven’t read it yet, but that’s my assignment for this afternoon. In my book, I quoted extensively from the 2014 version, and was quite critical. According to initial tweets, they’re very concerned about safety in SLS/Orion. They should be.
[Update a while later]
Here’s more reporting on the SLS mess from Eric Berger.
I expect SLS/Orion to have a 100% flight safety record. i.e. I don’t expect it to fly. Ever.
0/0 is undefined.
They note that the redesigned Orion heat shield will require testing on EM-1, the results of EFT-1 now being largely OBEed:
” In our opinion, the test of the new Orion heat shield has become one of the most important mission objectives.”
SLS is fulfilling its mission–keeping the standing army employed. Eventually SpaceX and (maybe) Blue Origin will be fully established and then a real discussion about SLS will commence. But I am quite confident SLS will never carry a single human passenger (if indeed any SLS mission ever flies at all).
According to Nasaspaceflight, The US Air Force has just provided a funding award to help develop a Methane upper stage for the Falcon series rockets.
This will no doubt greatly increase its Geo and Escape numbers.
It might also add enough margin to enable full reuse.
Speculation is they will go 5.2 meters on the 2nd stage.
Of course this begs the question of what if they go 5.2M on the 1st later and go all methane and all raptor as an intermediate step to BFR?
That could result in a Falcon evolution that in it’s heaviest configurations would be a near match for the Block II SLS without even starting on the BFR.