Last February, Alan Boyle predicted a 100 year wait for Lunar surface tourism.

I think 100 years to Lunar surface tourism is pessimistic. SA is already offering Lunar orbit tourism. You only have to a little more than eight times the $100 million Lunar-orbit seat price to get Lunar tourism on the Apollo model. You’d rendezvous with a lander in Earth orbit, you’d take two cosmonauts instead of two passengers. The passenger and one of the cosmonauts would land on the Moon. Roughly four $200 million launches. That includes the cost of doing it robotically once, then the price will drop in half. There are about 691 billionaires. If 1% of them want to go, we could be doing Lunar tourism as soon as a few years after someone puts down their $100 million deposit to get it going.

With global income doubling every thirty years, a larger percent of the economy becoming private sector and with concentration of wealth increasing, we could see thousands of billionaires in 60 years. There are 70,000 with $30 million in 2005. There will be more than 70,000 with $120 million in 2065. With thousands of new centimillionaires every year, utilization might allow a cycler that only centimillionaires would use. E.g., $20 million in 60 years garnering a flight a month. That would be 0.02% of them per year, a rate sustainable indefinitely with no repeats. The numbers to orbit would have to be about $2 million, but the big step from $12-20 million to $2-4 million will occur in the next 10 years with Bigelow stations and America’s-Space-Prize caliber launchers and vehicles.

With an L-1 station refitting the return portion of the lander for reuse, cyclers, Lunar oxygen, etc., the mature industry price could drop roughly to three times the fuel cost which is only about 5 times the cost to orbit. So $100,000 trips to orbit means maybe million dollar trips to the surface of the Moon. I’d go at that price even if I have to sell my house, take up a major weightloss program and go through years of therapy to overcome spacesuit claustrophobia. I’ll be ready to go at that price no later than 15 years when I pay off my 15-year mortgage and my daughter is graduating college. I won’t be unusual–with tens of millions of million dollar mortgages with payments of $5000/month tax deductible at 6% mortgage rates, there will be tens of millions of millionaires in 15-30 years. People on both coasts are paying 50% of their income for houses. There’s an average of $120,000/year GDP (not counting those pesky local taxes and insurance). That’s only three times per capita GDP or the average GDP for a household of three. Median per-capita income is less than half of average GDP ($45,000) so we are not talking about 50% of the US population being able to afford this in 15 years, but that would not be impossible. In any event, there are still likely to be tens of millions of millionaires by then in the demographic for full-price orbital flight and SpaceShot for everyone else.

Like the Economist wrote last week, it will be hard to do conspicuous consumption of space travel any more.