It’s nothing to cheer about.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Some improvement, but not enough. Still looks like a slowing economy. Whoever is president will probably inherit a recession next year. But one candidate actually knows how to get us out of it.
No, it’s something to ROFL about.
Really, just head on over to zerohedge — we’ve been LOLing over it all morning…
From comments here, “I nominate this administration for the Betty Crocker Cooking Pre-Election Fraud award.”
Waiting for the correction in the reported rate to be ignored by the dinosaur media. Any bets on which direction it will be? 😉
You’ll have to wait until after election day, that’s for sure.
No, the next job report comes out November 2, the Friday before the election. Cynicism is a poor substitute for information.
Ooh, goodie! Just in time to tell a great big f’ing lie, and not enough time to correct it…
Do you really think the BLS is lying? Are you that nuts?
If the BLS was lying to help Obama the job number would be a lot higher than 114k!
If the BLS was lying to help Obama the job number would be a lot higher than 114k!
Have you been reading Hot Air
A number higher than 114,000 would have been unbelievable even to the anomic MSM. A drop in unemployment from 8.2% to 7.8% in one month implies greater than 5% annual growth in the economy. The last time we’ve had that was…never. It has never happened, and certainly isn’t happening now.
Counting on the innumeracy of the typical American Democrats will claim a victory, because 7 is less than 8. Any explanation beyond that to explain how it’s really bad will sound like adults in a Charlie Brown cartoon to the innumerates.
July and August numbers were adjusted upward by 40k and 50k. Weren’t the numbers for those months adjusted downward last month?
They’re “seasonally adjusted”, which means they’re fudged with until they get the desired numbers.
You’re mixing up two different things. The monthly jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted when they are first released. I believe that only happens once.
The other revisions aren’t about seasonality, they’re about improving the accuracy of the data. Here, as I understand it, is the lifecycle of a monthly job number:
1. The first estimate is released the first Friday of the following month (e.g. September’s number came out today).
2. On the subsequent two first Fridays it is adjusted based on newer, more accurate data (this just happened to July and August, it was the second revision for July).
3. About six months after a March-March year is over, a preliminary adjustment is released for the entire year, again based on better data (the BLS just released a 386,000 job revision for 3/2011 to 3/2012)
4. A number of months after that the final revision is made to that year’s numbers (for 3/2011 to 3/2012 that will happen in February, I believe)
To anyone without a tinfoil hat this doesn’t have anything to do with “fudging”. Accurate economic data is very valuable, and it takes a long time to pin it down. The first monthly job estimate has a huge error range (e.g. plus or minus 100,000 jobs). It takes more time and data gathering to shrink that range.
Jim the BLS is claiming over 800,000 jobs were created last month where the survey of businesses puts payroll up about 114,000. That would seem to be way beyond the margin of era just 2 days after the Won lost big to Romney. You don’t have to wear a tin foil hate to think the numbers don’t make sense.
meant hat not hate.
You’re comparing two numbers that are collected in totally different ways; it isn’t unusual for them not to line up.
just 2 days after the Won lost big to Romney
Accusing the BLS of corruption, on the other hand, is extraordinary. The BLS is one of the most trusted data sources on the planet. The data in question was being processed before the debate happened, by career civil servants, under strict security precautions.
Only a nut-job (or someone suffering from Obama Derangement Syndrome) would allege conspiracy.
Not lining up is one thing. These numbers are off by at least 750,000.
By the way, the fallacy you are committing is called argument from incredulity.
The BLS is one of the most trusted data sources on the planet. The data in question was being processed before the debate happened, by career civil servants, under strict security precautions.
Oh, career civil servants working under strict security precautions, what could possible go wrong?
As Chris notes, your argument has many flaws Jim. Not even Obama is touting the 873,000 number, and for good reason, this is what the BLS wrote about it:
“Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little change.“**
What does the 3 months of little change look like? Well from June +128 (in thousands, so 128,000 new jobs). July -195. August -119. Let’s see that trend:
Jun +128
July -195
Aug -119
Sep +873
Looks like an outlier to me. When you look at the Establishment data, which has steadily trended down; the Household sudden curve upwards defies credibility. But hey, how dare anyone ever claim corruption at BLS under a Democratic President!
Accusing the BLS of corruption, on the other hand, is extraordinary.
Not at all. Releasing exaggerated economic news right before an election is SOP. I sometimes wonder if you’re trolling us Jim. First, the CBO now this. Surely, a person can’t be that naive.
BLS changed the methodology used in determining what counts as self employed for the houshold survey. So, they are literally manipulating the data. Could you think of a better time to not announce but implement new methodology?
It just seems strange that the current adjustment is contra to the prior adjustments.
….only one candidate wants to fix it
Obama promises 100% employment as soon as everybody stops looking for work.
dingdingding! We have a winner!