At ISDC, Bob Zubrin actually invited me to give a talk on this subject at the Mars Society meeting in August. I accepted, but I still owe him an abstract. Speaking of whom, he has an editorial in the Washington Times about the need for property rights in space.
79 thoughts on “A Private Mars Expedition”
Comments are closed.
I think the major (spacefaring) signatories will realize the need for clarification of the OST and perhaps revisions. We know US companies would like property rights, we know Richard Branson (UK) would like property rights, the Russians would probably like them as well (they’ll do most anything for money), and the ESA would surely love to be mining asteroids to somehow prop up the Euro. Most of the important OST signatories will see the potential benefits in guaranteeing such rights (if nothing else, campaign contributions from rich entrepreneurs, with no money in opposition), so I think change will come.
As an aside on the first article’s discussion of SpaceX, has there been any thought to letting ISS astronauts fly a version of the Dragon before the escape system is fully qualified? By which I mean that a crewless DragonRider goes up for an ISS delivery, then a departing ISS crew takes it out for a test spin and perhaps re-entry instead of riding back in their Soyuz, which could be loaded with the trash they would’ve normally put on Dragon.
They could get several days worth of familiarization and testing done, including several dockings with the ISS. Of course this depends on which docking interface was installed on the Dragon, and perhaps some other questions. But the ISS missions do present the first opportunity since the Apollo lunar module that we could test fly a ship that was sent into orbit uncrewed, and it could provide a further jump in the Dragon’s development schedule.
Good points. Also, a suitably equipped Dragon, launched unmanned, would make an excellent evacuation vehicle. Having this capability on station would enhance crew survivability in emergency situations
And the ISS could have seven man crews with only one docking port dedicated to their escape craft. I think the vehicle crew size is about right for the current needs, since everyone (including the cancelled RUS-M) seems to be aiming at six to eight people. Considering that two of them almost have to be trained astronaut pilots, the three-man Soyuz can only really carry one passenger. Seven seems ideal because you need a captain, a first mate, and probably a scientist, and yet you still have room for a billionaire, his wife, a movie star, and Mary Ann, which could be important if you have to make an emergency deorbit somewhere over the Pacific.
What no gilligan? They wouldn’t have to make the detour in the first place if he wasn’t aboard screwing things up.
I think it would be a hard sell for NASA to agree to this. Maybe taking it out for a test run and redocking at the ISS but I thought the landing is going to depend on those escape thrusters to slow the desent?
The only way to do things like a trip to Mars is a private-public partnership
Take out the qualifier and it’s debatable. Otherwise, it’s wrong. Other than that, it contains all the wrong assumptions usually found in these types of articles.
Zubrin makes the same mistake as others, assuming that govts. grant rights.
some government’s agreement is needed to turn worthless terrain into real estate property value
Another wrong assumption. Value is determined by supply and demand. That equation does not require any govt. involvement. However, govt. recognition of rights would likely increase demand. Undeveloped land is almost unlimited in supply. A settlement charter limits supply so that which is claimed goes up in value.
undeveloped resources of space could become a tremendous source of capital
Now that’s the nail that needs to be driven home. Govt. recognition of private claims would go a long way toward making that a reality.
Speculators on earth will buy land on mars after they see a few things.
1) That buying and selling of land is legal.
2) That people can live on mars raising the value of land.
3) That emigration is underway at a rate that makes the ROI reasonable over a limited investment time.
Mars One wants to take the slow route via media rights. At least they have a plan using near term tech. and a known funding source (although it’s hard to see them getting the entire $6b they say they need that way?)
Care must be given that the land given to companies for transporting colonists is not so great that it moves to much toward unlimited land. In the near term we shouldn’t expect the sale of undeveloped land to pay the entire cost of transportation. Over time however, the cost of transportation will go down and the value of land will go up. This could be an incentive for making an investment now. A settlement charter doesn’t require recognition from non members. That’s just a bonus.
1) That buying and selling of land is legal.
This means a title agency keeping chain of title records which each start with the initial claim. This isn’t a govt. office. The government could recognize it’s legitimacy however.
Actually, title insurance is all that is needed.
Personally, I think any Mars expedition ought to wait until it’s relatively easy – which means really significant space infrastructure a la Gerard O’Neill. Why go a hundred million miles (by Hohmann path, anyway) to a lifeless, practically airless desert when you can build your own land closer to home?
O’Neill colonies do nothing to make a mars colony easier. Fuel depots do, but that doesn’t require any O’Neill colonies.
Why?
Everywhere we go will be lifeless, so I don’t see how that helps your argument?
Practically airless is not airless and that air has some benefits as a resource.
Deserts can bloom.
you can build your own land closer to home
Perhaps for the elbow room? “Hey, a new neighbor moved in a few million miles from here.” “Yeah, it’s getting awfully crowded, better think about moving on.”
You have to bring resources to an O’Neill colony (with the captain’s permission.) A world gives you individual independence with resources already in walking distance (but they will use their trucks which do not require expensive reaction mass just a bit of methane mined from the air surrounding them.)
One thing I really liked about Zubrin’s proposals for colonizing Mars is that they had actual engineering in them. For example, he recognized the need for nuclear power because he understood that there was a lot of work to be done to colonize a whole planet and you cant do all that work with a vast human labor shortage. Most everyone since has focused so much on transport that they’ve actually lost all perspective on what it is that they’re going to need to do once they get there!
Plus they focus on finding life rather than focusing on survival. 8 oz of thorium doesn’t sound like too much to take with them and they have an abundance more once they arrive. Install a 100 kg 250kw thorium generator on each Red Dragon lander and you have a power outlet just where you need it. The stirling engine generator that is part of the device is also useful as a heat pump.
OTOH, have a robot dust them off and you can cover a lot of ground with cheap plastic unrolled photovoltaics.
I don’t get what you think you’re going to do on Mars with a mere 250kW power source. We’re not talking about a NASA camping trip here.. we’re talking about settlement. You need to build large permanent structures to house thousands of people. It would be absurd to suggest a single tractor could be used to do that, but it’s a lot less naive than thinking you can do it with human labor, so what do you need for that? Well, a Komatsu Caterpillar D455A has a mass of about 65 tons and pushes at 460 kW. You need to put about 3 times as much power in to get that much out, so you’re talking 1380 kW of continuous power. Leaving aside fusion fantasies, you’re going to need to run it on methane/oxygen, which means there’s going to be losses in the production of those propellants. As such, you need at least a 1MW nuclear reactor producing propellants 24 hours a day to run a single tractor for 8 hours a day. I’d love to see a more sophisticated analysis.. I think people just embarrassingly underestimate the utility we get from oil.
I didn’t say 250kw was the end of the story. It’s just the published number for a near term solution. It’s something they could add to every red dragon in addition to any other power solutions. It gives them at least a 17hr jump after they land (an MIT estimate of how long it would take two astronauts to set up solar which I think is suspect.) After a decade or more it should be pretty easy for them to refuel with another 8oz of thorium from the martian soil. Perhaps using it as portable power for some vehicle.
to colonize a whole planet [you need power] To which I totally agree. I constantly say they are thinking too small in plans I’ve seen.
I think it’s just stupid to put people on mars energy poor. Being in a radiation environment they can finally break the shackles of the envirowackos that keep costs up here on earth.
As far as net energy loss, we accept that all the time. I’m not sure what all the specs are on this tractor but it has the advantage that the martians can build it themselves out of dirt. Yes, this will require lots of energy to do as well.
They definitely need lots of energy if we hope them to be successful. I think we will produce a lot of methane/oxygen for distribution for high power, from many low power installations.
A market economy can do anything.. with enough capital.
When I see plans for sending a few guys one way to Mars I don’t see a serious plan.. I see a space suicide pact.
After a decade or more it should be pretty easy for them to refuel with another 8oz of thorium from the martian soil.
Thorium costs about $30 a pound, so I’ll chip in $15 so they can have an extra 8 ounces on hand. 🙂
I see a space suicide pact.
Me too.
You need to build large permanent structures to house thousands of people.
Or hundreds of structures capable of from dozens to hundreds of people (and thousands.)
It would be absurd to suggest a single tractor could be used to do that
Correct. They mass produce tractors so every group of a dozen colonists or more has one. They can do this because these tractors are not shipped from earth (well, perhaps parts for the first one.) I wish I had a good idea of the rate of production, but it’s not that long (a few months for each at most) and gets faster as they build the infrastructure. It’s almost as easy to make parts for ten tractors as it is for one and makes sense for them to do so. Actually, since the design is modular (they could have more than one power cube per tractor to increase it’s capability) this creates a diverse trade environment. Some specialize in power cubes (which are used for other devices besides tractors) others concentrate on making the iron and steel. Somebody else drills holes and puts the pieces together.
They can also share implements for the tractors throughout the community where needs arise.
The aspect of this that still sends my blood pressure through the roof is the occasional NOVA special on this – where they discuss NASA’s ongoing attempt to get shelf-stable Salisbury Steak to last more than 7 years.
If you can’t get your ‘food cycle’ going around enough to have something viable and fresh after -seven-years- then you’re going to (a) starve, because we aren’t packing that much food, of (b) be eating rice, pickles and limes – because they -can- keep.
Dehydrated Salisbury Steak will last for 30+ years. You just need some water.
Mars has water, right?
Mars One proposes to bake water out of the soil without even using wells.
“Any private company that is serious about going to Mars is probably going to want to invest in creating a space elevator first, says Cascio. That way, you can use the space elevator to launch satellites and other things into orbit, thus helping to pay off the costs. And you’ve already massively reduced the costs of launching your Mars vehicle.”
Why wait for a space elevator that has little if any chance of having the required technology developed in our lifetime? Over the same period of time and using the same amount of funding, a fleet of true space ships could be built in orbit using F9 launches.
“It’s possible that Mars will turn out to have valuable minerals or radioactive elements, that are worth going there to mine, says Zurbuchen. On the other hand, Turnage points out that to make this a return on someone’s investment, you have to spend the money to ship that stuff back to Earth, “to do something with it here.””
No, not really. If there is a market on Mars or the Moon or anywhere else for the raw materials you don’t need to transport them back to Earth. Due to the magic of the stock market and other channels of financing, you can enjoy the prosperity of investments in places you or your company don’t physically interact with.
People don’t need to move product from Europe to America to make profits off financial activities in Europe.
I do agree that there has to be a partnership between business and government in space. It would be stupid for governments not to act as a catalyst for growing new markets. There are a lot of benefits to tax revenue that come with growing the tax base.
But why would any politician put effort into development like this that wouldn’t come to fruition for a hundred years? They can’t take credit for it. Sadly, most politicians don’t think in terms of having a legacy a hundred years from now, they just think about their reputation from election cycle to election cycle. I’m not sure what it means when our politicians are not ambitious enough.
Why would the colonists (if they’re smart) accept a tax burden?
Politics is a means of theft. Why encourage it? How about a true free market?
The advantage of space is NO COUNTRY OWNS IT.
The disadvantage is that nobody can hear you scream when the International Revenue Serivce e-mails the tax bill to your suit’s wrist display.
Not all financial relationships are about taxes.
Colonists will pay taxes either to the country they came from, to their own government or both. But even if they paid no taxes directly to an Earth government, countries could still tax companies just like they do now with multinationals.
Even with the long distances and the challenges of direct trade the economy would function much like the global economy does today.
The world financial markets already send 1’s and 0’s from country to country, they can do the same from planet to planet.
World financial markets already send 1′s and 0′s from country to country
Totally agree. When people ask what can mars export? they probably don’t think… Money! from a successful mars company that only has mars customers. But that’s a fact (once enough people live on mars that they have such a diversified economy. Which is one more reason we shouldn’t send colonists in dribs and drabs.)
Countries can and will tax. They will even do it even where they have no right. Martians will have to deal with that eventually. They should be very careful how they allow any precedents to develop.
Property ownership needs to be absolute. This prevents a lot of the political tragedy we’ve always had to deal with on earth in every country (some more, some less, but always everywhere.)
Mars could be home to the ultimate off-shore banks.
To pay for infrastructure that is to expensive for the individual yet can be utilized by all the citizens, so everyone kicks in and it gets built?
You’re touching on the free rider issue. You don’t need a govt. to build something an individual can’t. You just need enough individuals to make it happen.
The free rider issue isn’t really an issue when things are kept at the local level.
I’m still waiting for evidence that we can reproduce and grow healthy fetuses to term, and babies into healthy adults, in any environment of less than 1g. Personally I have my doubts that Mars provides enough gravity. Venus seems like a better choice in that department, and also the gas giants (other than Jupiter of course).
But depending on our range of acceptable gravitates, O’Neil cylinders might be the only long term extra-Terran solution.
If Venus and the gas giants turn out to be our only viable options, I expect most colonies wil be similar to Buckminster Fuller’s Cloud 9. They can be all O2, CO2 and N2 on Venus, but would have to be mostly H2 on the Outer Rim.
A fractional G is probably a good enough signal for something as small as a fetus (where gravity is mainly felt due to bone’s higher density than water), but later bone development might be affected. If we’d built a rotating orbital station back in the 1970’s as a follow-on to Skylab, we’d already have such answers, and making such a structure, even a small one, would vastly increase our knowledge of the important 1/6th and 2/5th’s G environments where we’ll most likely be working. It would also let us decide on the range of G levels and rotation rate trade-offs for long range spacecraft.
As for the Mars debate, I still maintain that Mercury is an equally good if not much better initial target. The Hohmann transfer flight is only 3 and a half months instead of eight and a half, and launch windows recur every four months instead of having multi-year gaps, so you’re not as deeply committed or as isolated there. Plus, solar cells put out about twenty times as much power as they would on Mars.
And on Mercury sunsets look huge and last seemingly for days, so it would be quite the romantic getaway for the jet-setting dark-sunglasses crowd.
I’m starting to see the light on mercury (hey, was that a great line or what?)
But I don’t think it will sell until after we’ve demonstrated life on mars first (just an opinion.) It could be that once a mars settlement is in the daily news (along with the reality show) mercury settlement will go gangbusters. The mercurians will of course scoff at those silly martians.
The spread on property values will also be wider on mercury. Haven’t given that much thought.
Wikipedia says that (given current rocket technology) it would take six years to land on Mercury, due to its depth within the Sun’s gravity well. That seems odd to me, but is there a common sense reason to say Wikipedia is wrong about that?
If true that would be sort of a deal killer.
There must be an assumption in there that there are a lot of Venus/Earth flybys for gravity assist. If you have sufficient delta vee, you can get to Mercury in less than a year on a Hohmann transfer, but it’s very expensive (you have to essentially knock off most of the earth’s velocity as it goes around the sun).
Delta V from earth to mercury is 13.1 km/s according to this and takes about 106 days. 13.1 takes a LOT of fuel for anything of mass.
So George, I’ve just had a falling our over mercury. Probes are fine, people cost way too much even if you can get them there faster and more frequently (if you disregard that you can’t get them there at all.)
Darn. It was looking kind of good.
Bingo. This is the question that needs answering and nobody – not SpaceX, not NASA and none of the Mars colony fanboy organizations seems to have placed the answering of it anywhere on their critical paths.
It’s not that it’s not thought of, and it certainly could be a deal breaker, but just getting there and surviving has been the front burner issues. Funding, as well, should have a higher priority but people just say the obvious about having to get costs down.
The thing is, if more than 38% g is required for healthy fetal growth we will just have to figure out a way of providing it. But technically, it’s not a show stopper if we don’t know. We can safely assume that there is some range that is not precisely one g that works.
Why build your own land? Well, one further reason is that Mars is a high-radiation environment. It has just about no magnetic field and virtually no atmosphere, so UV and X-rays – and also solar protons and cosmic rays – reach the surface unimpeded. Any long-term Mars habitats will have to be underground, or have several feet of dirt heaped on them. In an orbital habitat, there will have to be that several feet of dirt anyway, to grow things in.
Mr. Anthony – I specifically said “when it’s easy”. Which means fairly wide-spread colonisation, not just O’Neill colonies in cislunar space. Just as an example, asteroid mining is going to be essential to get enough volatiles. Not to mention rare metals…
“when it’s easy”
You did indeed. Fortunately people don’t wait for when it’s easy, because we’d never get anywhere if they did.
With all the scare talk, I was surprised to find out the mars average is only 22 millirads per day otherwise known as no measurable cancer risk. High radiation could even be a benefit (it keeps out the envirowacko riff-raff.) Our maturity as a race may one day be demonstrated when teenagers are required to maintain our home nuclear reactors as part of their household chores.
No flash; no Flash Gordon! Well, you know I like to be different.
It’s not the technology anymore. We know the Red Dragon is poised to land on mars (Elon is maneuvering to have NASA pay for the first test landing. Attaboy!)
It’s all about the funding now. Larry Page suggests he’s willing to put up $2b (under some circumstance.) Mars One plans to make money with a reality show (good luck with that, it’s a long shot.) The Space Settlement Initiative wants congress to allow a company to have AK sized territory to sell to earth rubes for a few dollars a square meter (ok, that’s my bad; but I’ve got reasons to not like their actual plan while agreeing with much of their ideas.)
Then of course there’s this nobody on the internet promoting the idea that those taking the risk of their lives should get some balancing reward. Which is in turn balanced by the incentive for a company to take a long term risk for over a 10x reward (trillions of dollar back for a few billion up front) which gives the colonist a means of even getting there without individually having to come up with a $100m ticket price each.
That last idea requires that we realize we are not the pawns of governments. Not sure if metrosexuals can handle that.
We’ll probably have to root for the billionaires, but I hate to think we will continue to hold to socialistic ideas that have killed so many. Set free your mind and the rest will follow.
When you don’t really own your own property and life; you don’t have liberty.
Letting politicians decide what to tax you means you don’t own the thing. I left it unsaid, but then realized that last line above might not be understood.
Free trade means you agree to a fee for a service. That’s an entirely different thing.
Well, Mr. Anthony; “when it’s easy” glosses over the probable dozens of years, hundreds of billions of dollars and, yes, many lost lives involved in getting to that stage of capability in the first place.
I said “when it’s easy” because IMHO Mars colonisation is of doubtful value in the first place and, in any event, really doing a job of it will involve terraforming. The difference is between the grand gesture and the huge leap straight to Mars – and the gradual buildup of capability that space colonisation will involve. All the early writers thought that going to the Moon was going to be a gradual affair – large-scale space stations coming first – but it didn’t happen that way. What we got was a gigantically expensive stunt that led nowhere, and we are still paying for that mistake forty years later.
Let’s not do it again with the trip to Mars.
One more thing; major space infrastructure will have a faster return on investment, the first item probably being energy from SPS.
I have no idea why but i got sucked into watching the reality series ‘Coal’ on Spike TV. I think it was seeing the <a href="http://www.coaleducation.org/technology/Underground/continuous_miners.htm"continuous miner in operation that entertained me the most. Seems like sending one of those to Mars and having it cut into a mountain would make for a quick and easy habitat. They are even starting to make robotic miners so that an operator on the surface just has to hit a button and the robotic miner starts cutting the rooms and pillars all on it’s own. Just seal up the entrance and pressurize the mine and voilĂ , you have a shelter. Although, they weigh over 50 tons so getting one there could be a challenge. If seismic surveying was done before hand you could find a resource that could be extracted while carving out the mine.
Oops, I forgot to close the href tag.
Here’s something similar which the martians could make out of dirt (and works with dirt as well.) They also have a tractor that can do the same thing as the Bobcat in the video.
With mars being such an iron rich environment and 38% g, in some ways building these machines will actually be easier there.
Is this the link?
Yea, that’s it. I like the video you posted. Seems like that’s all you would need strip mine the permafrost water that’s just under the surface.
Let’s not do it again with the trip to Mars.
I agree. Apollo was flags and footprints. A real waste in many ways. Going to mars to colonize is nowhere near the same thing.
As far as infrastructure, not all is of the same value. I’m sure we will have O’Neill colonies one day. I’m also sure the fastest way there is a robust mars colony.
I’m sure we agree on depots (if we ignore minor differences.) But the infrastructure we need now is not O’Neill colonies, instead it’s a fleet of general purpose ships with at least a 7 km/s delta V. That and depots gives us the entire inner solar system. They could put the first of those ships in orbit next year at a cost of less than a quarter billion. O’Niell colonies compared to that are a complete waste of resources and no foreseeable ROI.
That quick trip to mars (to stay) could have a 10x ROI in just a few decades.
I do respect your beliefs Fletcher, I just disagree.
As for SPS, Elon seems a bright businessman and owns a solar company. He doesn’t see SPS providing a return.
really doing a job of it will involve terraforming
Terraforming is another of those siren songs. The shirtsleeve environment we can have on mars will be huge in only a few years after the colonists arrive. Josh is absolutely right about what heavy equipment could do. We don’t have to ship that equipment to mars either (although sending a the complete parts to be assembled is not a big deal.) They can make it out of dirt using open source plans.
Backyard mechanics are doing it now and mars has better dirt!
Josh is absolutely right about what heavy equipment could do. We don’t have to ship that equipment to mars either (although sending a the complete parts to be assembled is not a big deal.) They can make it out of dirt using open source plans.
Backyard mechanics are doing it now and mars has better dirt!
Am I reading you correctly? Backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment out of dirt?
Yes Jim. That is correct. Have a good look at the Global Village Construction Set. I really believe an adaption to a Mars Starter Kit is essential for mars colonies.
The key is the industrial ecology. You can go from dirt to tractors because all the steps in between can also be built from dirt.
Without this I don’t think any colony plan has a chance.
Have a good look at the Global Village Construction Set.
You’ll have to explain how these items are made from “dirt”.
Take a look at:
http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/CEB_Press/Bill_of_Materials
The various items are sourced from places like “any local metal shop”, http://stores.daltonhydraulic.com, http://www.surpluscenter.com, etc.
As far as I can tell from my (admittedly brief) review of the Global Village Construction Set everything is predicated on having immediate access to the resources of an advanced technological society. I fail to see the relevance to Mars settlement since “Hardware Store”, “Electronics Store”, “DigiKey”, etc will not form part of the Martian landscape.
Ok, I’ll explain. The GVCS is a rather new thing. They are focused on the third world, not mars. The principles however, can be adapted to mars. Given that, they do have gaps and they do cheat. Martians won’t be able to do that, but the principle still holds. The colonists will also be able to bring along a toolset/their toolbox of their unique professions.
The raw materials start as dirt. The Mars starter kit will include the minimum number of machines needed to replicate itself up to and including a tractor. That’s just a few dozen items. That would include the ability to make steel, plastics, rubber, etc in any shape (because the set includes the few required machines.) Including a healthy level of discrete electronics.
I’ve worked in a plant with engineers and machinists. Raw materials came in and finished products went out. It’s not magic. It does require the blueprints. Getting the raw materials isn’t magic either. Iron and carbon for steel are everywhere on mars. Other things are not much harder to find.
Those shapes can be assembled according to blueprints(designed to be easy to produce and repair at a low cost but with the capability of items costing many times as much. That’s documented for the designs including the tractor.) For example, the tractor is an open source plan that ordinary people have assembled. Not everything in the GVCS would be required in a Mars Starter Kit. The tractor certainly would be.
The purpose of the GVCS is to make isolated villages self sufficient. Villages self sufficient sounds like it has martian application, don’t you think?
Again, the point is not GVCS specifically. The point is the principle of the industrial ecology that let’s you bootstrap a modern technology. Not everything at once, but all the basics needed for survival. It’s not that many things.
Another thing OSE gets right is some of the philosophy of it’s designs. Which are all supposed to be producible in an isolated village from local resources (dirt.)
everything is predicated on having immediate access to the resources of an advanced technological society
No. Everything is predicated on having people trained to produce designs without the resources of an advanced technological society. Focus on the cheating and you miss the story. The problem is they are doing this on earth so it’s difficult for them to keep a pure perspective and not cheat a bit. They describe their multimachine as “start with an engine from a junkyard.” That’s cheating, but from their perspective it’s not.
You’ll have to explain how these items are made from “dirt”.
I can’t do that in detail here, but I’ll let you know once I have some details posted on my blog. I will have to come up with a mars list and show the inter relations. It’s work, but I will. If you weren’t focused on all that advanced technology, you would notice that everything could be done without it.
Another thing Jim. Think about the alternative to a locally replicable industrial ecology. I express it in the third paragraph of my nagging thoughts post.
Given that, they do have gaps and they do cheat.
Oh, please, Ken. They don’t cheat. They never claimed anything remotely approaching that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment out of dirt That was your claim.
I know that Mars is important to you and I can appreciate the passion you bring to the subject. But your passion is leading you to make stuff up because you so fervently want it to be so. Backyard mechanics are not making heavy equipment from dirt and no reasonable person could mistakenly think that they are.
You’re letting your passion compromise your intellectual integrity. This is not the path that a person who wants to be taken seriously should take.
They never claimed anything remotely approaching that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment out of dirt. That was your claim.
No. They make the claim. I will find it for you.
Core value #19: Complete Economy – The work of OSE is intended to be a workable blueprint for a complete economy. Our designs are geared for a maker lifestyle on the part of community members. This is also known as a neo-subsistence lifestyle – where communities can provide all the requirements of a complete economy, such that trade is only an option, not a necessity.
The component list for the tractor is mostly steel parts. OSE has a demo video of getting steel from dirt in the backyard. Although they do provide a source list where you can buy parts, all of those parts can be made from steel by a machinist and other machines that are part of the OSE ecology.
They do something similar for plastics and other items.
So yes, they can make a tractor our of dirt. It take 8 hrs for two to put a tractor together once you have the components (all of which they could make rather than buy… but on earth it makes more sense to buy some of those things. On mars they would choose the other option.)
So Jim, it’s not my imagination. I emphatically assert martians could make tractors out of dirt. The truth is they will have to if the intend to survive. The definition and documentation of the mars starter kit should be a primary issue. I said it doesn’t exist but should be adapted from the GVCS.
OSE has a demo video of getting steel from dirt in the backyard.
Link, please.
They do something similar for plastics and other items.
Link, please.
Jim, there documentation is lousy including gaps with placeholders (like your second and third links.)
The first link, the bill of materials for the brick press, is for an item they have constructed and is design so that all those items on the list are part of the ecology. You can either buy or create those items. That’s because they are not thinking in terms of mars. I am.
Jim, you’ve inspired my latest post, “How to choose a martian.”
Mr. Anthony, what’s your opinion of a working Moonbase? Given a deposit of ice, which is pretty well established as existing at the South Pole of the Moon, the engineering problems of setting that up are very similar to those of doing the same on Mars – with a much shorter trip there, of course. Mars’s atmosphere is not all that useful; for example, anyone stepping out on the surface will need a full pressure suit.
Getting stuff off the Moon is easier too; less gravity, and probably electromagnetic launchers could be used – not possible on Mars.
And finally, there is a significant amount of free iron on the Moon. Pure(ish) elemental iron, at that, which at a pinch might be usable without anything other than melting it down. Getting powdered iron out of crushed regolith requires nothing more than a magnet.
It would be a lot cheaper to get material from the moon than from earth very soon. Get a fleet of general purpose ships to LEO and all of a sudden you’ve got a huge market pressure to develop the moon. The GP ships coming first drives the moon base.
Link, please.
Jim, I have the links. Just click my name.
Ken, an interesting video, but…
Your claim was that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment from dirt. They are doing no such thing. Not even close.
I was expecting that you were going to link to something along the lines of a 19th century blacksmith making nails or hinges or whatnot from an open forge. This video doesn’t even rise to that level.
Funny you mentioned blacksmiths. I’ve shown you they can get steel from earth, right? The ‘red’ planet is red because it’s 15% iron oxide. They can get as much iron as they want. How do you produce anything from iron or steel? You apply pressure, you pound it. Hot or cold. That’s how you make products out of steel. A blacksmith will be a worthy profession on mars.
How does a machinist make anything out of steel? He grinds it. He bends it. He extrudes it. He drills it.
How does a welder make anything out of steel? (left as an exercize to the reader.)
What does a blacksmith/machinist/welder make out of steel? Any damned thing he wants.
Jim, really?
Jim, I used to work for a company in Tucson with about 300 employees. Some office, some engineer, some techs, other workers and a handful of machinists. I was responsible for a machine feasibility study which required me to operate every machine in the plant to determine what tolerances the were capable of. All machines have slop which can be mitigated by technique to a limited extent.
I can not true a lathe. I just don’t have the skill. I bet you can’t do it either. Extrapolating from just the two of us, that means nobody in the universe can true a lathe.
Guess what? This is a trivial task for a real machinist. So is making things that you and I couldn’t even imagine how to make. You need to appreciate that products don’t come from stores. Somebody made them.
This is a trivial task for a real machinist. So is making things that you and I couldn’t even imagine how to make.
All very true. What isn’t trivial is backyard mechanics making heavy equipment from dirt which is what you’ve claimed. Yes, I am perfectly aware that advanced industrial societies make heavy equipment from raw materials all the time. You’re claim, in case you’ve forgotten in all your goal post moving, is that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment from dirt right now.
You’re letting your passion for the subject write checks that your critical judgement is finding difficult to cash. I remind you again that Mars settlement is one of those subjects which is only on the ragged edge of respectability outside of the very narrow confines of space advocacy. Making unsupportable claims does nothing for the cause of Mars settlement. Once you emerge from the space advocacy subculture you will be inevitably called on them. Very few people are blinded by your particular passion.
I’ve shown you they can get steel from earth, right?
Right. What you haven’t shown is what you’ve claimed, that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment out of dirt right now.
It’s like pulling teeth with you Jim. You’re going to play technicalities and call it goalpost moving. Gotcha. When you say right now, does that mean anything not this minute doesn’t count? Now I’ve got to pin you down some more. You accept steel from earth. Would you accept the lessor challenge of steel from mars? You may say it’s a harder challenge because of the need to get to mars, if so, I’m going to hit you with a rock.
You must admit that once you have the components a couple of fairly competent guys can assemble them, even if on mars it takes more than eight hours.
So all that’s left is showing that with steel, tools and knowledge a person that I’ve describe non rigorously as a backyard mechanic could make the parts.
Is it at all possible in your mind that a backyard mechanic could include someone that could be trained to be a reasonably good machinist, welder, or whatever skill they need to train for?
It they could make heavy equipment from dirt in the past, would you loosen your restriction that they make you a tractor right this minute?
Are we done playing this game?
When you say right now, does that mean anything not this minute doesn’t count?
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
Would you accept the lessor challenge of steel from mars?
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
You must admit that once you have the components a couple of fairly competent guys can assemble them, even if on mars it takes more than eight hours.
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
So all that’s left is showing that with steel, tools and knowledge a person that I’ve describe non rigorously as a backyard mechanic could make the parts.
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
Is it at all possible in your mind that a backyard mechanic could include someone that could be trained to be a reasonably good machinist, welder, or whatever skill they need to train for?
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
It they could make heavy equipment from dirt in the past, would you loosen your restriction that they make you a tractor right this minute?
If you have some evidence that backyard mechanics have made heavy equipment from dirt I would be interested in hearing it.
Are we done playing this game?
I think we are. At least, I am.
If you have some evidence…
I’ve shown you an actual tractor and a video of it being built. I haven’t shown you all the parts being made, but have shown you an assertion by OSE that they can be. I’ve shown you the raw material coming from dirt.
But obviously I haven’t provided you with a single bit of evidence. Keep waving those A.I.S. hands.
BTW, I’ve made hundreds of parts like those on the list. I don’t even have the skills of a backyard mechanic. I worked with ceramics rather than metal, but the tools are the same. For example, I’ve made ignitor casings, which is the insulator on a spark plug for jet engines.
I am perfectly aware that advanced industrial societies make heavy equipment from raw materials all the time.
Now let me get technical. Advanced industrial societies don’t make anything. People do. Even robots are designed, built and programmed by people.
So if a person can make something… uh, they can make that thing. Transport them to mars and they still have the skills to make that thing. You would claim they are missing the magical advanced industrial society spell. It’s a catch all gotcha for you. You argue like my ex-wife.
I might describe that guy as a backyard mechanic. I happen to have a high regard for backyard mechanics. It isn’t some kind of insult when I say that. They have skills.
Let’s get specific. Name one part on the bill of materials that you think requires some magical advanced industrial society and can’t be produced by anything less than superman who isn’t available this week… er, minute.
Let’s get specific. Name one part on the bill of materials that you think requires some magical advanced industrial society and can’t be produced by anything less than superman who isn’t available this week… er, minute.
I have a better ides, Ken. Why don’t you try supporting your claim that backyard mechanics are making heavy equipment from dirt right now? Instead of trying to shift the burden of proof?
I have. Your claim that it takes an advanced industrial society (do I need to include a trademark symbol?) amounts to hand waving.
Just pick one item. Apparently you need an A.I.S. to do that?
The burden is still on me. Once you pick an item. I have to show that it can be made. I haven’t shifted anything. You might want me to go through all of the hundreds of items on the list, but surely you could go right to the hardest item?
The reason you have to do that is I consider every item on the list doable. You need to prove me wrong. So just pick one. Is that too hard for ya?
If you don’t or can’t, I’ll consider I’ve won this argument. In which case, no need for you to reply.
A.I.S. can build heavy equipment from dirt as you’ve conceded. I’m just trying to pull the scales off your eyes. Industry is what people do. It’s not a black box. You can’t hide behind a mystery. You can peak behind the curtain.
Getting back on topic.