Business, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

The 2012 Romney Campaign

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…isn’t the 2008 McCain campaign.

The 2012 Obama campaign seems to be run by Wile E. Axelrod, Sooper Genius. But wait! Wasn’t he involved in 2008, too?

I have never bought into the prevailing media myth, which is part of the media myth about Obama in general, that the 2008 campaign was brilliant, or even competent. Obama beat Hillary not because he had a great campaign, but because a lot of Dems were looking for an alternative to the “inevitable” Hillary, and they could avoid not being a sexist by not voting for her by being not a racist by voting for him (race trumps gender among Democrats). He won in the general, again not because there was anything good about his campaign, but because:

  • The media refused to properly vet him, being too busy going through dumpsters in Wasilla to dig into things in Chicago (or even just to bother to read Chicago newspapers)
  • Many found him charismatic (I never did)
  • He turned out the youth vote in record numbers (unlikely to repeat this year)
  • Everyone was tired of Republicans (the apathy expressed by the base still hadn’t recovered from 2006, because Bush was still president)
  • There was no conservative enthusiasm for McCain
  • McCain was an awful candidate
  • McCain (or his campaign staff) ran an awful campaign, insufficiently aggressive, and actively sabotaging his only real asset — Sarah Palin, and last but not least
  • Everyone was excited about the first black president, and proving that they weren’t racist

Few of those factors will apply this year. He’s no longer this inspirational charismatic cipher, but a failed president. They got voting for a black guy out of their system four years ago, and no longer feel a need to do it again to prove they’re not a racist (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me). And in particular, the Romney campaign is going to take the gloves off (as they showed in the primaries). Not to mention that we’re heading into another downturn going into the election. I think that Obama’s toast.

27 thoughts on “The 2012 Romney Campaign”

  1. If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you’re not a racist, will you vote for Romney in 2012 to prove you’re not an idiot?

    1. Probably not. I bet most of these people have already convinced themselves that Obama is the lesser of two evils. The “but the other guy is worse” excuse will be prevalent, I think. My thinking is that most of Obama’s base believes that the US will become some sort of theocracy, if Romney gets elected.

    2. Also, the US economy is growing faster than the EU’s. I suppose that counts for something. I was kind of surprised about Japan though. But with all the earthquake/tsunami and closing down the nuclear power plants their economy imploded again. It’s like Kobe but only worse.

      He sort of kept his promise of removing troops from Iraq.

      So… Where’s the beef?

      1. This is the slowest economic recovery since the end of the war. The economy isn’t growing fast enough to provide jobs for a growing work force. The only reason that the unemployment rate isn’t going up is because so many have given up looking, so they don’t count any more. If you counted discouraged workers, the real unemployment rate would be eleven percent. This president has been a disaster for the economy.

      2. If history is any guide, Obama merely followed the Bush/Cheney/Hitler negotiated Status of Forces Treaty.
        Just as he’s followed all other Bush WoT protocols excepting, of course, Obama’s love of assasination, innocents be damned, by drone.

      3. 1) His administration has flagrantly broken the law on numerous occasions. In particular, enabling smuggling firearms into Mexico and an active drug war, in the process resulting in these firearms showing up at hundreds of murders. At the least, Attorney General Holder should be fired and a thorough investigation of these activities started (the potential crime here being several hundred counts of accessory to murder). Didn’t happen and the people responsible are now being protected in Washington, DC.

        2) Obama has turned out to be one of the most deceptive presidents ever. He’s hid large parts of his life (where are those academic records!). He routinely spouts lies and lazy generalizations.

        3) Obama has actively harmed the US economy and introduced a stupidly high amount of uncertainty in what should be simple business activities, like hiring people or paying health care benefits.

        4) The policies of the Obama administration are routinely stupid, misguided, and unconstitutional. Obama has personally insulted long time US allies (and for no reason other than to show that his foreign policy is different). Repeatedly, various agencies have pushed the limits on their interpretation of what powers they have been delegated by the Constitution. His primary legislative victory is a 2,000 page monstrosity.

      4. He sort of kept his promise of removing troops from Iraq.

        I’m sure the average voter will remember those big parades welcoming our troops home from Iraq, so with a tear in their eye and patriotism in their hearts, they’ll cast their vote in gratitude for Obama’s 2nd term. Thank you, Barack! Thank you for ending the US wars in Iraq and Libya! Obama is Awesome!

    3. And it’s not unusual for off-year congressional elections to favor the other party. But what happened 2 years ago was an unprecedented tidal wave. Which would indicate the current occupant isn’t exactly like Most US Presidents.

    4. Godzilla,

      Other than Bill Clinton, there hasn’t been a Democrat re-elected President since 1948.

      1. A Democratic administration was re-elected in 1964. And the story of how Vice President Gore almost became President in 2000 and won a third term for the Clinton-Gore administration should not give you any comfort. So, really ,you’re just saying that Carter lost in 1980, and affirming that Godzilla is correct.

        1. Clinton wouldn’t have been elected either term if Perot hadn’t run both times (he won with a smaller percentage of the popular vote than most losing candidates received), and the Republican Revolution hadn’t turned his disastrous first term start into a win. I’m constantly amazed by those who think Clinton was so great. I’ve met him, and while he is stunningly charismatic in person (though not on TV), most people I know, especially overseas, regard him as a joke. Or maybe a “gag,” with a tip. O the hat to Monica.

        2. I forgot LBJ, who got so spooked he didn’t bother to run for re-election.

          I have a friend on wall street, he says Europe and China is much worse then we are being led to believe and we will have negative growth before the election.

          With Obama being tied in the polls this early and the economy getting worse, I would be scared shitless right now if I were a Demcorat, particularrly one running for office outside of a deep blue district. There is a non-donkey frinedly storm coming.

  3. Rand, while I wouldn’t mind seeing Obama get to spend more time with his family, I don’t think this will be as easy for Romney as this post seems to indicate. Sure, some of the factors that helped him aren’t in play anymore, but Romney’s got his own issues, and I don’t think that Obama is as politically incompetent as your narrative would suggest.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    ~Jon

    1. Why don’t you think that? Where is the evidence that he’s politically competent? Follow those links, and tell me.

      Remember, the only reason he won his previous elections was from chicanery (Jack Ryan’s implosion with the release of his divorce papers). Bobby Rush beat him like a drum.

    2. Looking at all the election maps and battleground polls, it certainly looks like it will be a close one either way. Both sides should assume it will be close and play their best game.

      1. Tied now and the undecided who tend to overwhelmingly break against the incumbent not being counted.

    3. I don’t think anyone is saying it’s going to be easy. The Obama Campaign is going to play it as rough and dirty as they think is needed, and they’ll have help from the MSM in pushing any distractions they can come up with. In the end though, they can’t really perform a Jedi mind trick to make us all forget who has been president for the past 3 1/2 years. It’s also hard (though they will most certainly try) to make a guy who was governor of The People’s Republic of Massachusetts (I was a resident there for the 1st 40 years of my life) look like some wild eyed right wing nut job. So while it will be close, the odds favor Romney at the moment.

  4. But Rand Obama admitted to doing cocaine when he was young he vetted himself , what other vetting can you do to top that?

    1. At this rate, The Committee to Re-Elect President Choom’s “October Surprise” is going to be a picture of Romney drinking a New Coke. (and not the caffeine-free variety, either).

  6. Although there were many signs back in 2007 and 2008 that, as Glenn Reynolds likes to say, being Jimmy Carter 2 was the best possible scenario for Obama, two other Democrats are also quite instructive, since they show the predictable consequences of the Democrats’ brand of affirmative action racial politics.

    Douglas Wilder was the first black governor since reconstruction, and his term as governor of Virginia was a rather miserable failure. Although he was prevented from running for a consecutive term by the Virginia constitution, his party suffered a serious defeat the next time when George Allen was elected governor. (Allen’s election ended three successive terms of Democrat governors in Virginia, of which Wilder was the third.)

    Even more well-known is the record of David Dinkins, the first black Democrat elected mayor of New York City. Dinkins’ disastrous term was followed by the election of Rudy Giuliani to two successive and highly successful terms as Mayor of New York. Giuliani was followed by Bloomberg who ran as a Republican the first time out, effectively keeping a Democrat from being elected Mayor of New York City for many years.

  7. I was absolutely sure that Hillary was going to get the nomination for 2008. Wrongo. Rand, weren’t you pretty convinced that Obama was going to lose in 2008?

    Political prognostication plenty perilous.

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