More thoughts from Barry Rubin: Obama’s policies make it inevitable.
10 thoughts on “War With Iran”
I think we’ve got weeks, not months before we see the Israelis go after Iran. I quit letting my gas tanks get lower than half full and I keep ‘plenty’ in gas cans in the shop too.
Food and ammunition I keep right on stocking.
And given the Executive Order last week, IF this pops off, the WH is going to make a HUGE grab for anything they can get control of, all under the banner of defense. Most importantly and to paraphrase the President, energy prices WILL necessarily go through the frigging roof!
Yea, people have been saying that gas is getting expensive now because of the speculators getting antsy over the conflict in Iran. But really Iran up until this point hasn’t concerned the speculators all that much as they say only about 10-15 dollars of the price of a barrel of oil has anything to do with Iran right at the moment. Really their concerns are that demand has been steadily increasing but global production has fallen off and inventories are becoming constrained. If Israel were to bomb Iran and Iran were to disrupt the 17 million barrels a day that flow out of the Strait of Hormuz then the proverbial shit would hit the fan. Particularly since we are only at about 2.5 million barrels a day in over capacity right at the moment. A 15 million a day shortfall and we’d all be screwed. To put in perspective the ’70s oil crisis occurred with just a 5 million barrel a day shortage.
Gee, you know, it would be really swell if we had troops in an advantageous region to quickly move into Iran if need be, like Iraq maybe……
Short of divine intervention, I don’t see how war isn’t going to Iran. Still in doubt is before or after they get the Bomb.
It does not require divine intervention for Iran to A: obtain nuclear weapons, B: use those nuclear weapons only to deter direct attacks on Iran, and C: not be directly attacked because, hey, nuclear deterrence works. This has been the story for every nation to acquire nuclear weapons since 1945 – including the one most of the world thinks is lead by insane religious fanatics intent on armageddon (hint: begins with ‘I’), and it is still the most likely outcome for Iran.
Iran not acquiring nuclear weapons at all would be preferable, but that is not longer plausible. People in Tehran, Tel Aviv, or elsewhere doing some damn fool thing on account of Iran has/will soon have the bomb is a possibility, but not an inevitability.
nuclear deterrence works
Until it doesn’t.
Pakistan would be as great a threat if not for India. World dynamics are interesting. Too bad Obama is playing for the opposing teams.
It’s hard to imagine Israel surviving. They really have no good choices. Carter made the first move and soon we will all pay. The Iranian people are not the enemy. Too bad for them as well.
We ended a world war with two bombs. How many will they use to light it up again?
John, you attribute a rationality to the Iranian government I do not. If they get the Bomb, I expect it will be used offensively, despite likelihood of a nuclear response.
They might try to get a proxy to use the bomb, but I also expect the bomb will be used.
Not the most coherent, readable column of his I’ve ever seen.
In any case, the policies of every President in office since November 4, 1979 have made it inevitable. The longer it is delayed, the worse it will be.
If Iran gets the bomb they don’t have to use it (or cause it to be used) for the acquisition to be real trouble:
The number of options we have in the region will not be MUCH fewer. All kinds of activities will be foreclosed to us and our allies just by Iran having the bomb. Even the early 2000’s operations of a few hundred Special Forces in Afghanistan would have been completely off the table.
Our options will be much further constrained than they would be if Iran was run by a Soviet (i.e. an opponent with a fairly Western outlook) style organization.
Iran with the bomb will be able to call the shots in the region much more than the US with the bomb.
Sorry I mis-typed. I meant to say:
“The number of options we have in the region *will* be MUCH fewer. “
I think we’ve got weeks, not months before we see the Israelis go after Iran. I quit letting my gas tanks get lower than half full and I keep ‘plenty’ in gas cans in the shop too.
Food and ammunition I keep right on stocking.
And given the Executive Order last week, IF this pops off, the WH is going to make a HUGE grab for anything they can get control of, all under the banner of defense. Most importantly and to paraphrase the President, energy prices WILL necessarily go through the frigging roof!
Yea, people have been saying that gas is getting expensive now because of the speculators getting antsy over the conflict in Iran. But really Iran up until this point hasn’t concerned the speculators all that much as they say only about 10-15 dollars of the price of a barrel of oil has anything to do with Iran right at the moment. Really their concerns are that demand has been steadily increasing but global production has fallen off and inventories are becoming constrained. If Israel were to bomb Iran and Iran were to disrupt the 17 million barrels a day that flow out of the Strait of Hormuz then the proverbial shit would hit the fan. Particularly since we are only at about 2.5 million barrels a day in over capacity right at the moment. A 15 million a day shortfall and we’d all be screwed. To put in perspective the ’70s oil crisis occurred with just a 5 million barrel a day shortage.
Gee, you know, it would be really swell if we had troops in an advantageous region to quickly move into Iran if need be, like Iraq maybe……
Short of divine intervention, I don’t see how war isn’t going to Iran. Still in doubt is before or after they get the Bomb.
It does not require divine intervention for Iran to A: obtain nuclear weapons, B: use those nuclear weapons only to deter direct attacks on Iran, and C: not be directly attacked because, hey, nuclear deterrence works. This has been the story for every nation to acquire nuclear weapons since 1945 – including the one most of the world thinks is lead by insane religious fanatics intent on armageddon (hint: begins with ‘I’), and it is still the most likely outcome for Iran.
Iran not acquiring nuclear weapons at all would be preferable, but that is not longer plausible. People in Tehran, Tel Aviv, or elsewhere doing some damn fool thing on account of Iran has/will soon have the bomb is a possibility, but not an inevitability.
nuclear deterrence works
Until it doesn’t.
Pakistan would be as great a threat if not for India. World dynamics are interesting. Too bad Obama is playing for the opposing teams.
It’s hard to imagine Israel surviving. They really have no good choices. Carter made the first move and soon we will all pay. The Iranian people are not the enemy. Too bad for them as well.
We ended a world war with two bombs. How many will they use to light it up again?
John, you attribute a rationality to the Iranian government I do not. If they get the Bomb, I expect it will be used offensively, despite likelihood of a nuclear response.
They might try to get a proxy to use the bomb, but I also expect the bomb will be used.
Not the most coherent, readable column of his I’ve ever seen.
In any case, the policies of every President in office since November 4, 1979 have made it inevitable. The longer it is delayed, the worse it will be.
If Iran gets the bomb they don’t have to use it (or cause it to be used) for the acquisition to be real trouble:
The number of options we have in the region will not be MUCH fewer. All kinds of activities will be foreclosed to us and our allies just by Iran having the bomb. Even the early 2000’s operations of a few hundred Special Forces in Afghanistan would have been completely off the table.
Our options will be much further constrained than they would be if Iran was run by a Soviet (i.e. an opponent with a fairly Western outlook) style organization.
Iran with the bomb will be able to call the shots in the region much more than the US with the bomb.
Sorry I mis-typed. I meant to say:
“The number of options we have in the region *will* be MUCH fewer. “