All that “smart diplomacy” has lost Egypt:
The White House completely miscalculated in Egypt, as it did in Gaza. It seemed only to care for the mechanics of the electoral process rather than the meaning of the results. Washington vacillated on who its Egyptian allies really are. We had long shared with the Egyptian military understandings on national security, ours with an eye to maintaining peace in the region. That relationship is now pretty much lost.
Americans, in their perennial innocence, have demanded that the generals turn over power to the civilians whomever they may be, just as they did to the Persian shah, just as they did after Israel’s pullout from Gaza when they hadn’t a clue about the danger posed by Hamas. Our ingenuous attitude has been tantamount to handing over Egypt on a silver platter to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists, who ironically are coming into power as democrats.
Their new foreign policy will include opening the blockaded border with Gaza, ending normal relations with Israel, and opening them with Hamas and Iran in such a way as to alter the balance of power in the region against U.S. interests. Indeed, one of the few things that unites the political parties in Egypt is an anti-Western foreign policy. Cairo has already allowed Iran’s warships to transit the Suez Canal; failed to protect pipelines supplying energy to Israel and Jordan; endorsed the union of Hamas and Fatah; and hosted conferences in support of “the resistance,” that is, terrorism.
They’ve rolled the clock back to the seventies in terms of Israeli security. And in some ways it’s much worse.
Exactly what the administration wanted, it got.
Yep. Islamic government was not a bug, it was a feature to Obama.
I’d say the difference now, after Egypt’s ‘fall’, is that Israel is WAY less willing to listen to the U.S. on WHO to bomb and WHEN than ever before. If Iran gets nukes or Egypt starts any crap, the Israelis will be on them luck white on rice, ducks on June bugs and fat kids on a Snicker Bars, all simultaneously.
Personally I think you’ll see them stretch out in several directions at once. Knock out Iranian nukes, knock off any close in Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian military targets, then drop back, tighten the borders and dare the Arabs to try to retaliate.
It might get the wrong reaction, re-uniting the countries leaders and their currently warring factions. But if you’ve got rabid dogs around your property, you kill as many as possible quickly, without worrying that they might go into pack mode.
One thing is for sure to me, they won’t wait, they won’t call our State Dept, they won’t tell the U.N. Once they’ve decided that they are alone and threatened, they’ll jump. And we’ve all but abandoned them now.
So the ‘alone’ part is a done deal.
Down with democracy/popular rule for other people!!!
Yep, when a bunch of murderous thugs vote on who to kill next, my response is usually, “Nuke ’em from orbit; it’s the only way to be sure”.
I think the best-case scenario is that Egypt’s Muslim government will get sucked into internal politics and struggle with economic problems, actually trying to make things work for the next decade before giving up and blaming everything on the Jews. Admittedly, it’s unlikely, but most other outcomes are worse.
Agreed – that’s the best case and is pretty unlikely:
When your moral code allows doing anything in the name of your religion, things don’t have to be made to work all that well (see Afghanistan under the Taliban).
Rand et al,
In light of Rand’s posting, I think many of you would appreciate this feature at the Atlantic:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/01/why-john-j-mearsheimer-is-right-about-some-things/8839/
Speaking of the Middle East, has anyone ever come up with a serious plan for the defeat of Hamas?
You could go on a campaign among Atkins dieters to show that it’s higher in carbs than protein. Or tell people it keeps for months in the fridge, when in reality it only keeps for a week. Other than that, I’ve got nothing.
Brilliant! This suggests a way to defeat Hamas’ rival as well. Atkins dieters can be educated about how, to prevent cheese clumps, starches are often added Fatah.
Brilliant! This suggests a way to defeat Hamas’ rival as well. Atkins dieters can be educated about how, to prevent cheese clumps, starches are often added to Fatah.