…is almost over. I’m hoping for ties, and continued ties all the way to the convention.
6 thoughts on “Our Long National Iowa Nightmare”
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…is almost over. I’m hoping for ties, and continued ties all the way to the convention.
Comments are closed.
Yes, how ironic that a couple of Blue States will be responsible for narrowing down the Republican field.
Iowa’s track record at predicting the eventual party nominees and eventual presidential winners is mixed. Between 1980 and 2008, there were 8 Iowa Caucus events. Not all were contested in a party, especially on the Republican side where the sitting president was unopposed (1984, 1992 and 2004). On the democrat side, 7 of those 8 events were contested (Clinton was unopposed in 1996).
The democrat who won a contested Iowa caucus went on to win the party nomination 5 times, so the caucus results were 5 out of 7. Pretty good. Two of those winners were elected president that year.
The republican who won a contested Iowa caucus went on to win the party nomination twice, or 2 out of 5. That winner was elected president only once.
The track record suggests the Iowa caucus is more effective at predicting the eventual democrat nominee than the republican one. In either case, it isn’t very reliable at predicting the next president.
I’m just glad my phone has finally stopped ringing (for now, of course… I know it’ll start ringing again later this year).
Looks like you got your ties, Rand. It’s good: Iowa gets less weight this way.
Bachmann is out.
You know what we should call “responsible” Republicans (i.e., Republicans who pose no real threat to the Plantation, and often collaborate with it) and “Dinner Party conservatives”? “Mitt-Too Republicans.” Get it? Don’t thank me; it’s what I do.