If true, here’s a non-war reason to hope for a Bush reelection. Reagan could never do this, but he never had a Republican congress.

I should add that people are paying far too much attention to polls, including the approval ratings and “right-track/wrong-track” polls. It’s way too early for them to have any significance whatsoever. The campaign hasn’t even started yet, and it won’t really kick in until after the Republican convention, and not really until after Labor Day.

At this point in 1988, Dukakis was several points ahead of the president’s father, and stayed there through August. He barely got over a hundred electoral votes.

I don’t think this race is going to be close–certainly not as close as 2000 (if for no other reason than regression to the mean). It’s very unlikely that we’d have two elections so close consecutively.

I in fact think that it will be a landslide, one way or the other (and my money’s on Bush, or would be if I participated in the Iowa electronic futures market, which currently agrees with me).