14 thoughts on “Space Access Alert”

  1. Congrats and enjoy the dinner.

    [CCP] more damaging to the emergence of a US commercial space transport industry than no program at all.

    To err is human, to really screw it up get a politician.

  4. Did you really expect NASA to do it any other way given its now on the critical path? And just wait until you see the safety requirements…

    Again, I warned folks about this when the policy shift making CCDev the critical path, but of course, New Spacers knew this would never be…

    Bureaucratic organizations are very predictable in their behavior, and the stronger the culture the more difficult it is to change it, so for any with a knowledge of organizational strategy this outcome was a no brainer. Once CCDev became the critical path to ISS access it was doomed to be subject to NASA program micromanagement.

    Now the big question is, has SpaceX, SNC, Blue Origin, etc. become so addicted to government contracts they will go along with it? Or will they be able to break free from the black hole (CCDev) that is threatening to pull them in to their destruction?

    And will New Space Advocates be able to keep the safety standards NASA will want for its astronauts from being the industry standards for the FAA AST and the space insurance industry.

    As I said before, a 100 billion for Constellation would have been cheap if it kept NASA away from the New Space firms. But now it looks more and more they will merely become the New Space contractors instead of new wave for commercial spaceflight.

    Meanwhile Mr. Bigelow and his customers are still waiting….

  5. You still expect NASA to swallow SpaceX whole, don’tcha? Ain’t gonna happen.

    Bigelow is on the schedule. We are moving forward. Elon is not going to do business with NASA if it doesn’t leave him free to pursue his actual goals. I didn’t just say they will cut ties with NASA (let’s avoid confusion here) I’m saying that SpaceX will maintain it’s internal integrity. Hiring specialists to deal with NASA does not destroy the company.

    I can’t help but be amused by all those claiming SpaceX is not a commercial business. Contractors have been milking the taxpayers (see this is forced, not like buying a movie ticket) for so long they wouldn’t know how to pay a reasonable price for services. Why would any intelligent businessman not take advantage of that if given a chance?

  6. Ken,

    I didn’t know you work for SpaceX.

    So you are saying its now time for SpaceX to milk the taxpayers?

  7. It’s not SpaceX doing the milking. It’s politicians that create programs. I’m sure you’ll suggest SpaceX lobbied for it. But that’s not evil either.

    The solution is to get govt. out of business (no rewards or penalties.) Let business compete on a level field without government interference.

    What’s really ridiculous is to claim SpaceX is not commercial because their product happens to be something the government is interested in buying.

    When I worked as a contractor for the government we could only buy things listed on a negotiated contract. So we were paying $10k for a computer you could buy on any street corner for $1,500. The computer seller was not the one at fault and they were certainly a commercial entity. That is not a private sector problem. It’s a government problem.

    Tell ya what Thomas. I’ll be the first to tell you when SpaceX turns to the dark side. Promise.

  8. Oh, I get it… when I said we are moving forward you chose to misunderstand my meaning.

  9. Ken,

    You also seem to misunderstand what I said. It’s Commercial Crew that is not commercial, its merely another form of government contracting. And firms that bid on it are government contractors even when they also have commercial customers like the Comsat firms. But commercial is a term to describe markets, not firms.

  10. There seems to be a perfectly obvious way for SpaceX to finesse the whole will-NASA-really-screw-the-pooch-on-commercial-crew-by-going-too-FAR question.

    Track 1: Keep working with NASA on CCDev or CCP or whatever, while trying, behind the scenes to put the kibosh on this FAR nonsense. If the worst can’t be avoided, relinquish the CCDev/CCP contract.

    Track 2: Work separately on crew escape technology for Dragon that ignores the NASA kibitzing and (likely) schedule stretch-outs. There are already 12 ISS resupply missions contracted for under existing agreements. These missions will all fly virgin Dragon vehicles because NASA insisted on this. The first of these is apparently now to be flown November 30 this year. SpaceX already intends to refurb some of these low-mileage, pre-owned Dragons as DragonLab modules. It strikes me that they could use at least one other of these ex-NASA creampuffs as the test article for proving out the yet-to-be-developed crew escape system – built to whatever standard is acceptable to Bigelow and SpaceX’s own staff astronauts – and use the rest as manned mission vehicles for servicing Bigelow habitats by adding production versions of the escape system as the ISS resupply missions are flown. If the initial Falcon Heavy mission is a success, get Bigelow on board to put one of his big habitats up as quickly as crewed Dragons are on-line. Once a successful non-NASA manned mission is notched, NASA will have a fait accompli to deal with and not much FUD left with which to butt in and obstruct.

  11. Dick,

    Good model and I hope SpaceX follows it. But I also hope SpaceX moves up the priority on DragonLabs. When I was at NASA Ames I was talking to some of those involved with those DragonLabs and they indicated the biotech folks were starting to get annoyed with the constant delays because of SpaceX focus on NASA. A year or two might be a “short” delay for New Space but it’s a huge one for the fast paced biotech industry.

  12. commercial is a term to describe markets, not firms

    So people talking about a commercial firm are idiots? (def: an enterprise engaged in trade for commercial profit.)

    biotech folks were starting to get annoyed

    This would be an excellent point if true. Is it? Every choice of vendor involves tradeoffs. We’ll have to keep a close watch on the manifest to see if any are jumping ship. Which is in the lead… supply or demand?

  13. Ken,

    The problem is that under that definition the USPS is a commercial firm – its engaged in trade to make a profit…

    The problem is when they jump ship they won’t come back pushing SpaceX into even more dependence on government markets. And increasing even more the skepticism of investors about putting funds into space ventures.

  14. So postal workers are not paid by the govt.? I didn’t know that. /sarc

    Again, you are still assuming people will jump ship when there is no evidence (breaking signed contracts in the process.) Also ignoring the fact that they continue to sign up new customers.

    Face it Thomas, although the threats you espouse are real, the fantasies you keep dogging are not. The govt. will never, ever be big enough to squash out all the flames of free enterprise. We’d replace the govt before that ever happened.

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