Clark Lindsey responds. I may have something myself to say, later, but right now I’m thinking about responding to Mike Griffin’s piece.
28 thoughts on “The Olson/Cunningham Fantasies”
Comments are closed.
Clark Lindsey responds. I may have something myself to say, later, but right now I’m thinking about responding to Mike Griffin’s piece.
Comments are closed.
Olson is obviously correct that the only significant “market” for “commercial” orbital HSF is NASA itself. That said, given this fact and the fact that the Cold War has long since become history, I’m left scratching my head on what his justification is, besides pure pork barreling, to continue spending tens of billions of dollars borrowed from the Chinese on rockets to nowhere, as Rand aptly called them.
That market is about to change. In three years or so a private space station will be in orbit costing a few hundred million. How much did the ISS cost?
Each will safely hold six and the lifeboat has already been built. This low cost will mean nations that never thought they could will now have a space program and dozens of stations will be put in orbit. Then travel between station will happen. Then onward. Some hair-brained commercial ideas will sprout. Along with other unexpected things. Forty years late, but we are finally about to make that giant leap for mankind.
Sure, after many decades of 99% to 100% of the revenue for orbital HSF coming from government agencies who launch astronauts for the sake of launching astronauts, it’s all about to change into a flood of billionaire tourists because a UFO chaser named Bigelow says so. He just needs some big fat NASA contracts to get it going. Change! Hope!
By the same reasoning my “plan” to build a resort full of high-end hotels on the South Pole is about to break big too. All I need are some big “commercial” government contracts to get me started.
And don’t forget about that other breakthrough NewPole project, PoleX, the high speed “commercial” train tunnel connecting New Zealand to my Pole Hotel. More “commercial” government contracts will be needed, of course, but it will be Big Big Big and you can take that promise to the bank!!…..ruptcy.
So Googaw, how about you say that stuff to Bigelow’s face.
He won’t, he is a pussy and likely the most worthless poster this board has and that is saying something.
Googaw, Jeff Bezos is worth nearly 20 Billion dollars. Please, go call him a kook. Obviously, you are much smarter than he is.
As for your hotel on Antarctica, there are treaty obligations against the commercial development of Antarctica. There are oil companies who would simply LOVE to set up shop there but by law, cannot.
G’day ,
Googaw, there is already a commercial market to Antarctica. Tourist go there every year. There has been proposals for hotels down there but the nation members of the Antarctic Treaty haven’t been very supportive. If it was free from government restriction there would likely have been some sort of permanent settlement there years ago.
ta
Ralph
Wow, I sure seem to have rubbed a wrong nerve among some posters here. I haven’t said anything that Bigelow hasn’t heard a thousand times before. He’s quite open about and proud of his UFO activities. I’d be happy to say anything I’ve said here to his face any time likes.
Here’s another promising Bigelow project NASA should borrow from China to invest in:
“Bigelow also broke the news of the creation of Bigelow Aerospace Advanced Space Studies (BAASS). He explained that his research into the UFOs has convinced him that the phenomenon is real and that the goal of BAASS is to find technologies akin to UFO propulsion methods. As an example of what the company would be searching for, he said, ‘we would love to find something that levitates.'”
Source: http://www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2008/09/28
G’day,
Perhaps he knows something you don’t. He clearly knows something NASA doesn’t. He purchased NASA’s Transhab technology and sent up two prototype inflatable habitats ,something NASA was unable to do.
ta
Ralph
Googaw, I’m sure if you had Bigelow’s money you’d have your own ideas about what to do with it. I’m sure you have your own ideas about which end is the deep end of the Drake equation. You are completely entitled to consider him a nutcase and a cooke. But to be reasonable, you’ve got to acknowledge certain facts…
He’s a successful businessman regardless of what goes on in his head that you disapprove of. He has licensed technology from NASA, improved, produced and orbited that technology. He is meeting with potential customers that have the money and shown an interest. However he is on hold while launch systems and craft come online to meet his business plan. That will shortly be resolved. Parts already have been.
His habitats will cost 6% of the ISS for more than equal volume (3 x BA330) or a mixture of private and national organizations could each have their own for 2% of the ISS costs. The habitats also provide a good foundation for a general purpose ship. He has a cislunar concept but it would scale well to something suitable for gong from mercury to the belt.
He also has plans for a moonbase based on these habitats. Although I have no idea what interest from any money source he has for those.
If he does get taxpayer money, which you object to. It will be spent on something cheap, real and useful which is quite different from a lot of government spending. You might give him a break.
No business knows beforehand how many customers it will have, they can only speculate. But to ridicule without evidence is not wisdom.
Mike,
The Antarctic Treaty just bans resource extraction, not commercial activities as 30,000 tourists a year testify to.
And the idea of the Antarctic Treaty was that some day that ban would be lifted.
He won’t, he is a pussy and likely the most worthless poster this board has and that is saying something.
Actually, he appears to be the only serious critic of commercial spaceflight plans that I know of and who as far as I can tell isn’t pursuing some hidden agenda.
I have my doubts about private space stations, but any criticism has to be tempered by the fact Bezos is spending his own money. It sure beats getting a bigger yacht.
If the private launcher industry is any indicator, there will be a series of failed private space station firms until the market is properly scoped out and the right technology is applied. The firms that fail still serve a useful function, by ruling out parts of the business parameter space.
I, too, am skeptical of Bigelow’s chances for success in developing a pure space drive and/or controlled, practical antigravity. One thing I do know, though, is that neither of these things is ever going to be discovered by anyone convinced up-front that they are impossible. So, while I wouldn’t personally invest in such, I applaud Bob Bigelow for doing so and wish him well. And, who knows, perhaps the horse will learn to sing.
“Actually, he appears to be the only serious critic of commercial spaceflight plans that I know of and who as far as I can tell isn’t pursuing some hidden agenda.”
Martin, what is this obsession with conspiracies you seem to be enamored with? You see ATK boogeymen under ever bed.
Huh, what conspiracies? I’m not a big believer in conspiracies, though I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy.
Hey Trent Wadd – as if you’d say any of your nonsense to people’s faces either.
John, name a single person I haven’t when given the opportunity. I’ve called Bob Zubrin a worm to his face (and he liked it). I asked Will Whitehorn if he ever thinks before he talks, back when he was VG’s chief executive and screwing everything up. My contact information is available for anyone who has a problem with what I’ve got to say.
I’ve called Bob Zubrin a worm to his face (and he liked it).
A worm?
Trent Wadd you seem to be rather proud of being obnoxious. Is that your major goal in life?
Yes Trent, without characters life would be quite dull. Thanks for doing your part… I was going to end with an expletive, but I’m such a wimp.
John Mart, would you prefer me to be politically correct? When Zubrin uses weasel words I call him on it. Almost always he puts them away and starts presenting a much better argument. Everyone should do this and shout him down when he makes silly statements – the result will not be to silence him, I don’t think anyone could do that, but to let him know that he’s not being very convincing. As for Whitehorn, they got rid of the guy didn’t they?
Really, what’s your problem?
Trent Wadd you are so heroic to take on Zubbie. Mere mortals usually recoil at the thought of challenging him since he is so powerful. You must have a prominent position in the Matrix. Do you know Kung Fu?
OK.. I just have to conclude you have nothing important to say. Go away idiot.
That’s it Trent Wadd? All I get is “idiot”? Maybe I should try harder. Where are you located in the Matrix? Based on your avatar pic they do not have good barbers there. Or is that a helmet you are wearing?
Time for the blue pill John. Go back to sleep.