NASA appears to be close to making a decision as to whether or not SpaceX will be able to take Dragon all the way to the ISS on its next flight, now tentatively scheduled for November 30th. That would be almost a year since the last flight. From the article, it’s not clear what the long pole in the tent is, but it looks like it could be problems on the NASA side, and not just development and teething issues for SpaceX. Allowing them to combine test objectives would save SpaceX on the order of a hundred million bucks, but more importantly, it will accelerate the schedule to make us less dependent on the Russians, and potentially expand ISS crew size. Once they’ve demonstrated rendezvous and docking capability, combined with the landing demonstration, all they would need to use the system as a seven-person lifeboat would be a rudimentary life support system.
15 thoughts on “Combining The Flights”
Comments are closed.
Perhaps it’s the Russians who are the long pole in the tent.
Perhaps if SpaceX would just throw $5 billion at their capsule it would grease things along. After all, it is a well known fact of spaceflight that the simple act of spending money, regardless of how it is spent, increases flight safety.
As an unabashed SpaceX fanboy, I don’t see any legitimate reason why the flights cannot be combined. There will be a go/no go point where docking can be called off. I agree that the long pole may be the Russians. I find that very hypocritical considering their lack of testing of the new “digital” Soyuz. If the re-entry system failed to work, they were prepared to subject their cosmonauts to a ballistic re-entry. It’s okay though, the guys in the capsule would have a pistol to shoot any wolves that might try to eat them before the recovery team could get there.
Roll Tide wrote:
As an unabashed SpaceX fanboy, I don’t see any legitimate reason why the flights cannot be combined.
The reasons not to combine the flights are risk and schedule.
The linked article references a COTS 2 flight on 15 July and a COTS 3 flight on 08 October, but a combined COTS 2/3 flight not launching until 30 November. Presumably the delay for COTS 2/3 results from having to retire risk by analysis instead of in-flight demonstration.
Speaking of risk, retiring risk by analysis is usually not as good as retiring risk by demonstration. That’s doubly so when the demonstration can be accomplished months sooner than the analysis. NASA and SpaceX will really be in a bind if the combined flight does not go as planned.
I can see why SpaceX wants to do this — it saves the cost of a launch — but I don’t see any upside to NASA in it at all.
My opinion, of course.
Mike
They could have flights 2 and 3 be duplicate missions. Every successful flight will help prove the reliability of the Falcon 9 and Dragon. This would make sense from a PR standpoint and might even help deal with the reluctant Russians.
“and “realism” of the ISS modeling during the SpaceX sims using SimCity.”
““Simulations in SimCity do not allow modeling of most of ISS – limited realism during joint sims. Will mitigate issues such as PV (Pilot Viewpoint) as much as possible through detailed Stage Testing and End-to-End Testing in August.””
Is SimCity a nick name for something or are they actually using the video game SimCity?
“Is SimCity a nick name for something or are they actually using the video game SimCity?”
I was wondering about that too. I used to play that game. I always ran out of money and I never really understood how bonds worked. . .
I can see the point about NASA being in a bind if the combined flight does not work, but on the other hand, it would give them more data to analyze for the next flight. I think the go/no go point is very important. If things are not going well, they re-enter the Dragon and get ready for the next flight.
If the combination of flights does not result in Dragon cargo being available sooner, I agree that there is no incentive for NASA to do this. Again, as a SpaceX fanboy, I am confident that they can get it right the first time.
I got in trouble once for calling a Russian a Pole.
I got in trouble once for calling a Russian a Pole.
Probably not as much trouble as you’d be in for calling a Pole a Russian! Them’s fightin’ words!
Yes, several Polish folks are still mad that the Russians hijacked Tsiolkovsky, whose father was Polish (Ciołkowski) and whose mother was a Tartar.
Just a thought, but if F9/Dragon costs $115 million a launch and SpaceX has to do three that means a total cost to execute the COTS contract at $345 million, a $67 million dollar loss for the firm.
If NASA allows them to skip the 2nd launch, it would be a total cost of only $230 million, for a profit of $48 million.
So I expect NASA’s decision will have a bearing on if other firms, or even SpaceX, will do future fixed price contracts from NASA.
Probably the best compromise would be simply to allow SpaceX to skip the 2nd flight, and the payment for it, and just be allowed to complete the contract with the third flight. That way both the taxpayers and SpaceX will benefit.
Just a thought, but if F9/Dragon costs $115 million a launch and SpaceX has to do three that means a total cost to execute the COTS contract at $345 million, a $67 million dollar loss for the firm.
You don’t know what SpaceX’s costs are.
Yes, several Polish folks are still mad that the Russians hijacked Tsiolkovsky, whose father was Polish (Ciołkowski) and whose mother was a Tartar.
I think more Poles are mad at decades of Soviet occupation than they are about Tsiolkovsky.
Larry,
Yes, Poles have many reasons to dislike Russians. My father, who was in the 7th Armor Division in WWII, was disappointed that Gen. Eisenhower wouldn’t turn Gen. Patton loose on them at the end of WWII. That is why he always regarded it as an unfinished war.
Certainly agree that could be the case, but which part makes you think that? The article says that MOD is targeting Oct 8th, but SpaceX is targeting Nov 30th.
You’re not specific, but I assume by “landing demonstration” you mean the previous Dragon flight and that “rendezvous and docking” refers to the upcoming flight(s). The next flight (or 2) will demonstrate rendezvous but not docking/undocking. Dragon gets grappled by the ISS crew and attached to the common berthing mechanism on the Harmony Node 2. Then they remove it from the node and release it from the arm. Not sure if any of that could be done from onboard Dragon or from the ground
Rand,
Looks like have a missing post. True, like the Russians no knows what SpaceX costs are, but the figure of $115 million is the opportunity cost of having to make a extra flight which will have a major impact on their bottom-line, especially when they only make a couple flights per year. But it’s academic as NASA will let them slide as they have with their launch dates.