Not all of them so well:
Clearly, some of the country’s slower commuter trains were caught in the tsunami. There are reports, again unconfirmed, that up to four of these trains were involved. Wading through photos on the Internet, I found at least three discrete shots of derailed trains, although it is possible the passengers survived.
If indeed a bullet train was lost, it will likely be the working of the law of unintended consequences. For the most part, bullet trains north of Tokyo run inland, so these were probably out of the tsunami’s range (see this map). However, there’s a small loop seaward to Sendai, among the hardest hit areas of the island. This is pure speculation here, but given the timing of the shock wave and the following tsunami, it is possible that safety systems stranded one or more trains in the path of the killer wave. Commuter trains follow a much longer stretch of coastline, and would have been particularly vulnerable.
…liberal planners just might want to reexamine their ideological yearnings for high-speed rail, namely their conviction that it is somehow “better” for people to live in concentrated urban clumps, connected by public transit, than in diffuse, sprawling suburbs. Densely populated Japan must rely on rails to get people to and from work. When centralized systems like these fail, they fail across the board and, as appears likely in Japan, will be out of commission for a long time; aside from the track damage, electrical shortages due to nuclear-plant shutdowns are forcing service reductions. Suburbs and cars, on the other hand, are distributed systems, with inherently redundant roads and vehicles that are more resistant to natural disaster. Rescue workers aren’t taking the train to succor tsunami victims, they’re driving.
This makes a lot more sense than rethinking nuclear power.
I’m sure bullet trains can be upgraded to take a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami for just $1.5 million dollars per foot of track.
Where are they putting these suburbs of Tokyo? Or London? Or NYC? Or LA?
Do you ever travel outside the confines of your apparently limited imagination? Spend any time where the rest of us have to live?
Try it.
Its IMAGINATION, you troglodytes. You just need to IMAGINE! Was that a stanza that didn’t make it to the record?
Imagine there are rails everywhere, it’s easy if you try.
Imagine they go anywhere, even to the sky.
Spend any time where the rest of us have to live?
Not since I gave up sniffing glue.
I’ve ridden that bullet train into Sendai several times, and it’s on the western side of Sendai, with a lot of city and buildings between it and the sea. Granted, the wave was unbelievably high, but the tracks are elevated, and there are lots of tall buildings around in Sendai. Heading up to Sendai from the south, the tracks are at least 30 feet above the ground, which would put them at risk for the highest part of the tsunami, but the tracks are also farther inland at that point, and I don’t believe the tsunami maintained that height as far inland as the train runs. On the north side, the train starts running into hills, which would also prevent a lot of damage.
If anything I would think there would be more damage from the quake itself, given how close the train runs to the epicenter. The local trains are all on the ground level, and so they appeared to be the most vulnerable to both quake and tsunami. From the pictures I saw, it looked like the cars were colored the same as some lines in the pictures I took on my last trip there.
If anything happened, here’s the scenario I could see. The quake hits and weakens the pylons holding up the tracks down to their lowest tolerance, and a tsunami hits sometime later, which brings down the weakest pylon and takes out the track, if the train happened to be stopped on that part of the line. I would be very surprised if that was the case here. I can believe that the trains couldn’t be contacted because of damage to the communication lines rather than the trains being taken out by tsunami. Of course I’m just a layman, and neither a train expert nor a geologist.
Cars may be distributed, but the system of getting fuel to them is not. TV news is reporting people sleeping overnight in their cars in the hope of maybe getting gas.
Bottom line – after a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami, all bets are off.
Cars may be distributed, but the system of getting fuel to them is not. TV news is reporting people sleeping overnight in their cars in the hope of maybe getting gas.
It is in the US. I don’t know why Japan doesn’t have a distributed system for transferring oil. If what you, Gerrib, says is true (and we know your history with truth), I suspect it is caused by limitations on where gas stations exist in Japan. But what is probably more the case is that much of Japans refining infrastructure is near the coast, and near the refining is the storage. However, storage can be reclaimed by bringing up a tanker to store the fuel. But since Japan doesn’t have a fleet of nuclear ships; you can’t just regain electricity by bring up a generator and pluging it in. And back to Rand’s point; you aren’t going to take the bullet train of the tracks and drive it on prepared surfaces; like you could a car or, in the US, a tanker trunk.
So Dave, how are the fevered swamps of your imagination?
Leland – so, after Katrina, nobody had problems getting gas on the Gulf Coast? Funny, because the crew my Rotary club sent down there immediately after reported there was no gas to be had south of Jackson Mississippi.
Oh, and two days after the hurricane the Interstate had JUST been cleared of downed trees. Like, “guy putting away his chainsaw as we speak” just cleared.
The trains did exactly what they were supposed to do in an earthquake. Stop as soon as possible, and don’t leave until an all clear. What is the problem?
Gerrib,
I don’t live in New Orleans, but then comparing the swamp in Louisiana to the swamp in Houston is not a fair comparison. But from my office window, I watched plans taking off from Ellington Field like the Berlin Airlift to deliver supplies to hurricane region. A few weeks later, I drove from Dallas to Houston to ride out Rita from my home. Fuel was a problem for people leaving, because the government had restricted locations that could deliver fuel to a hand full of locations. Since I fueled up in Dallas, I had plenty of gas to make it to Houston. Those leaving Houston were forced by government agencies to stop for gas at certain places, so long line developed for miles with cars idling and running out of gas waiting to get gas. Had those cars been free to travel, like I was heading south, I’m sure many could have made the distance to safety. Sadly, many were stranded along the US59 corridor that got slammed by Rita.
After Ike, fuel was a problem for a couple of days. Again, this isn’t a distribution problem. The problem was the storage facilities were unmanned. Once people returned to work, distribution was resolved. Tell us, Gerrib, how returning to work fixes a railroad track, replaces the missing train, and solves the distribution problem in a couple of days?
Considering that those concentrated urban clumps are disproportionately built along coasts, their ideal would put millions of people in harm’s way from a future tsunami on this scale.
Come on, McGehee, who besides the Strategic Air Command and US insurance companies would want to be in Nebraska?
people sleeping overnight in their cars in the hope of maybe getting gas
This is what makes me wonder why people wait until the last moment of fumes in tank to refill. Anytime I have less than half a tank I’m checking prices as I drive (quarter of tank if I’m heading interstate.) If I suspect a problem of supply there would have to be some force to make me waste it.
Daveon wrote:
Where are they putting these suburbs of Tokyo? Or London? Or NYC? Or LA?
I’ve never been to Tokyo or London, but the suburbs of NYC run substantially down the length of Long Island, and the suburbs of L. A. extend up to near the gates of Edwards Air Force Base.
If you don’t know the answers to these questions, why do you have to be so insulting?
Chris Gerrib wrote:
Leland – so, after Katrina, nobody had problems getting gas on the Gulf Coast?
That the highway and fuel distributions systems were running at reduced capacity after a major catastrophe shouldn’t be surprising. The point is that they were running, whereas the bullet trains aren’t running at all.
I suppose there is some leftist thinking there. If there isn’t enough gas for everybody immediately then no one should travel at all.
Oh, and two days after the hurricane the Interstate had JUST been cleared of downed trees. Like, “guy putting away his chainsaw as we speak” just cleared.
So you’re complaining that it took two days for the interstates to return to normal after a Cat 5 hurricane struck them? It’s been over four days since the earthquake / tsunami in Japan. Are the bullet trains running yet?
The point of distributed systems is that they respond to damage by maintaining the system but at reduced capacity. Centralized systems respond to damage with catastrophic failure.
Mike
Thanks Mike. My history with Gerrib makes me want to mess with his intellectual superiority. However, you have a well written and reasoned response. Indeed, distributed systems doesn’t mean you fully route around failures/disasters and maintain 100% capability. Capability is reduced. The point is you can re-route.
One of the other problems with Katrina specific to New Orleans is that the area is a swamp with very few land routes. It’s really not a great example of road or rail in terms of distributed systems (the former I suspect is why Gerrib chose the example while ignoring the latter). Cross the river into Mississippi and post Katrina reconstruction happened much faster there. Part of that was politics (Dems running Louisiana couldn’t hovercome their instinct to make their disaster look like a federal problem), but another issue is that Mississippi had many routes into and out of the area. However, the tracks that ran along US 90 wasn’t one of them.