He’s slipped back below Dean in the polls, though within the margin of error (look at the CNN/Gallup poll, which is the only one with a trend–he peaked in mid September). He was better off when he didn’t campaign. Or debate.

Barring something completely unforeseen (e.g., Hillary jumping in–an unlikely event given the state of the economy and the polls that show her losing to Bush 50-42), I’m having trouble seeing a scenario in which Dean doesn’t get the nomination at this point, because regardless of what national Democrats think, he’s going to have all the momentum from the early primaries.