Will the world secretly hope that Israel does what needs to be done, and then condemn it?
Sounds just like them. Including our own State Department.
12 thoughts on “The Gutless Wonders”
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Will the world secretly hope that Israel does what needs to be done, and then condemn it?
Sounds just like them. Including our own State Department.
Comments are closed.
This would be Ideal from an Iranian point of view.
Israel is not an existential threat to iran unless they use nukes, which is unlikely.
This gives Iran an excuse to increase nuclear weapons work.
this cements the power of the MULLAHS as they pass their version
of the Patriot Act, run secret prisons, torture their domestic enemies
and arrest opponents as “Israeli Agents”.
Given the fact they had to fake the elections, now they have a nice little exernal enemy.
Israel is not an existential threat to iran unless they use nukes, which is unlikely.
I would disagree. As I see it there are three things which we need to consider here. First, Israel has to have an adequate response to any potential Iranian nuclear attack. Currently, they have two choices, if things should get that far, a submarine based counter attack or a preemptive strike. I doubt they have a large enough sub force to trust the first option.
Second, the key reason that Israel hasn’t used nukes so far is due to the threat of international sanctions which probably would shut down the Israeli economy for decades and there’s a good chance the country would become weak and defenseless in the meantime. As long as they aren’t threatened with near term extinction, those threats suffice. Iran with nuclear weapons changes that equation. Obama’s efforts (particularly, his relative hostility to Israel) probably will contribute to a long term reevaluation of Israel strategy as well.
Finally, any conventional assault would be hard pressed to damage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure enough to justify the effort (as you note, jack).
My view is that a limited nuclear strike is on the table. This also makes sense from a nuclear proliferation point of view. If developing nuclear weapons was cause for a nuclear strike (and other similarly aggressive punitive measures), that would provide a profound disincentive to develop nuclear weapons. You’d still have proliferation concerns from NGOs and stealth programs, but it’d slow things down.
Any analysis should keep in Israeli domestic politics in mind. Israeli politicians aren’t particularly different from American ones — they want to win elections and secure a lasting majority for their party. The Israeli public is quite split on most issues involving peace and war — if too many Iranian civilians are killed, the ruling party will be voted out; if Israel becomes far more hated than it is today, the ruling party will be voted out; if too many Israeli die from retribution from Hezbollah and Hamas, the ruling party will be voted out; heck, if a completely justified carefully planned attack simply goes wrong due to technical failures, the ruling party will be likely be voted out. And the ruling party really doesn’t want to be voted out.
Israel is a courageous nation, but don’t over-estimate the courage of any one Israeli politician.
And in particular, consider Netanyahu: he has a reputation for being hawkish on Iran but he has much bigger reputation for political cowardice.
Corrections/disagreements about the above from Israelis are welcome.
Iran doesn’t even have to assemble a single nuclear weapon for its weapons program to serve its purpose. The purpose, I believe, is to act as a kind of poor man’s doomsday device: if you overthrow (or cause to be overthrown) our theocracy, then highly enriched uranium will be given into the hands of islamic terrorists. Converting this uranium into improvised explosive devices is not very hard, especially if the devices don’t have to be mobile or particularly efficient.
“…but he has much bigger reputation for political cowardice.”
So far, he’s stood up to his biggest bully, Obama.
Bill Maron, ha ha ha! No, I don’t think so. Bibi’s coallition partners have a lot more room to bully him, and they use it!
Here, see this right-wing commentary on the situation in Israel by Caroline Glick, the woman behind the “We Con the World” and the even funnier “The Three Tenors” videos recently posted here at transterrestrial.
I completely disagree with Caroline Glick’s overall philosophy, but it is worth reading her take on things. She argues that Netanyahu has caved in to pressure from Obama and even more so from Netanyahu’s left-wing coalition partner, Ehud Barak. The right-wing commenters in the “talkback” section agree — several of them nominate Glick for Prime Minister, and others simply call for Netanyahu’s replacement because he caves in politically.
Here is a very right-wing utterly wrongheaded article which actually supports my point that Netanyahu won’t attack Iran because he has domestic political concerns (and he tends to put those concerns above all else):
The high price of coalition stability
By CAROLINE B. GLICK
06/21/2010 22:38
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=179088
Iran is currently a nation without a democratically openly elected government.
It’s moving towards a theological dictatorship or Oligarchy.
They won’t care if the Israeli’s blow up a few million subjects as
long as it guarantees the regime staying in power.
Israel cannot destroy the regime without committing an act of genocide
on a par with the Nazi’s. Even a limited nuclear strike will not
damage the regime.
A Small Strike won’t achieve Israel’s goals.
The best way to damage Iran would be for Israel to flatten Karg Island and bankrupt the country.
Ya know Bob, I read a number of Israeli-centric blogs, Commentary preeminent among them. The take from them for me is Bibi is trying to hold on and making concessions when he has to but because the alternative would be disastrous for Israel, he will make the hard call. Of course you seemed to miss the part of the story that supports me. If Barak is getting the red carpet treatment in DC as a way to apply pressure on Bibi, then Obama is still working on unseating him, the big bully. Yet, Bibi is still speaking about security, Palestinians and the “international community” in the Knesset and not in a nice way.
You seem like a J Street kind of guy and I’m in the other camp. We’ll see how the naval blockade continues before I go as far as Glick. Although your description of her as wrong headed says far more about you than it does her.
What I see happening is, since Saudi Arabia has just instituted the ability to shut down their northern tier air defenses so that Israeli air forces can slip through for an attack on Iran, and US naval forces are moving into the Gulf with IDF naval forces, that the IDF will strike only Iranian nuclear and strategic military sites, making clear it is merely to deny Iran the ability to develop nuclear weapons and afterward offering the Iranian people free access to medical isotopes.
Israel will of course receive global condemnation in public and private congratulations from global leaders.
The response from Iran will be a launch of ballistic missiles with either shiny new nukes, or dirty bombs, or other bio/chem weapons targeted at Israeli cities. US and IDF naval forces will take these missiles out in boost phase with ABM weaponry on board, and any that get through will be handled by Patriot or High Energy Tactical Laser installations developed in the past decade as a joint project between the US and Israel. Revolutionary Guard units may attempt to set off weapons in Iranian population centers to blame them on Israel and the US.
With the failure of Iranian ballistic missiles, Hamas and Hezbollah will let loose with simultaneous barrages of missiles supplied by Iran and Syria, on Israel. After sustaining missile barrages for some days, Israel will tell the world to eff itself and it will destroy Gaza and carpet bomb Hezbollah installations.
What happens between Israel and Syria is the wild card.
I don’t think Israel wants Iranians nuked. The Iranian people are under the thumb of an oppressive regime. The problem is the weapon they need, bunker busters, are being withheld by this administration.