Or at least not enough sunspots:
Even with the solar cycle finally under way again, the number of sunspots has so far been well below expectations. Something appears to have changed inside the sun, something the models did not predict. But what?
We don’t know as much as we think we do, about climate on either the sun or the earth. Imagine the cosmic irony if we end up with a mile of ice over Chicago because we pauperized ourselves to keep the planet from warming.
An another little ice age would be interesting. And prove that the Maunder Minimum was the cause of it. It would be nice to see more rain in the west.
But of course the environmentalists will find a way to blame modern civilization somehow.
On the good news side, it will be great to expand the world’s supply of Stradivarius violins…
I’m a little annoyed at the concept of “what’s wrong with the sun”, rather than “what’s wrong with our models of the sun”. It seems trivial on the basics. It’s a semantic. By saying what’s wrong with the sun, they mean model. But that’s how we end up losing the language. When the climate models are deemed to be correct, and recorded observations are what then get fixed. That’s how we end up with junk science.
There is nothing wrong with the sun; it’s doing what it is going to do. Our observations are likely correct as well. It’s likely the model that is wrong.
The interesting part is that other investigators such as Leif Svalgaard predicted almost exactly what is going on now three years ago. There is a study that has been going on since 1977 regarding the magnetic strength of sunspots that found that the temperature of spots has been decreasing on a linear scale since then. If the linear trend continues, by 2015 there will be no discernable spots on the solar disk.
What does this mean for climate?
One thing is for certain, we are going to find out.
How does this affect plans for space travel beyond the magnetosphere? Fewer large solar flares, but more galactic cosmic rays?
“How does this affect plans for space travel beyond the magnetosphere?”
Canceled on account of widespread famine.
“There is nothing wrong with the sun; it’s doing what it is going to do. Our observations are likely correct as well. It’s likely the model that is wrong.”
Well said, Leland.
“something the models did not predict”
Maybe they let the “climate change” model guys make the sun model, too.
As Leland said, the models are wrong (as are the idiote saying something is wrong with the sun), not the sun.
Patient: Tell it to me straight doc. I gotta lose weight, right?
Doctor: You have 24 hours to live.
Patient: What?!! Oh my god! What’s wrong with me?
Doctor: There is nothing wrong with you. However, there is something wrong with your health model.
—
A minor plot point in several Arthur C Clarke stories was that the sun was “sick” and was going to die much sooner than expected. At the time he wrote them, astronomers believed that they were seeing fewer neutrinos than expected, and Clarke playfully explained that the sun may have “gone out”, and the evidence was slowly working its way from the interior outward — doesn’t it take a photon umpty-million years to work its way out? Oh, and I believe Robert Forward’s Dragon’s Egg had microblack holes eating away at the sun’s interior — the neutron star’s aliens cure the sun, if I recall correctly.
How does this affect plans for space travel beyond the magnetosphere? Fewer large solar flares, but more galactic cosmic rays?
Yep, also remember that the great coronal mass ejection that happened in 1859 was during a weak solar cycle. If that one was to happen today, say bye bye to modern technology.
“There is nothing wrong with the sun; it’s doing what it is going to do. Our observations are likely correct as well. It’s likely the model that is wrong.”
When your model does not agree with reality, it isn’t reality that’s wrong.
The thing of it is, even if we started getting serious northern hemisphere glacier expansion, the AGW zealots would *still* call for CO2 reductions. They are wedded to the idea not because of climate, but because of the political power it offers over the masses.
I particularly love the statement:
“Others are equally evangelical in their assertions that the sun plays only a minuscule role in climate change.”
Well, you know, if the sun went out, the average surface temperature would only drop by ~290 deg C, so *clearly* it plays only a minuscule role in Earth’s climate………..
I think the word “evangelical” is particularly correct here.
I am not familiar with all sunspot models, but the ones that I am familiar with rely heavily on “persistence” (i.e., this cycle will be like last cycle). Forecasters using those models got badly burned on cycle 23, where the maximum smoothed sunspot number was about three-quarters of what it was in cycle 22. Are we seeing anything more than that same egg being smeared on faces?
Pathetic Earthling, that’s basically the plot to Fallen Angels.
I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, I know, hey, I ought to leave the young thing alone.
But ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone,
My thoughts exactly. This would be getting more press coverage if Al Gore had a theory to blame the lack of sunspots on the Industrial Revolution. They’re not interested in phenomena without someone to blame.
I’m waiting for the first claims of “anthropogenic solar cooling”.
That’s no more ridiculous than a recent claim that the younger-dryas climate event 12,000 years ago was anthropogenic… they seriously claimed that that sudden, short (a couple of centuries) cooling was due to paleo Indians hunting the North American megafauna (such as Mamoths) to extinction. Their “modeling” was that the loss of the megafuana resulted in a reduction of emitted methane, due to (I’m not kidding) the extinct creatures no longer emitting methane from their intestinal tracts. Yep, a decline in Mammoth farts…
Sound nuts? it is, but they’re serious;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/27/anthropogenic-decline-in-natural-gas/
Of course, they utterly ignore that the younger dryas ended as suddenly as it began (the animals suddenly became unextinct?) and a ton of other issues.
So, how will the blame the sun’s dearth of activity on humans? I don’t see any possible way, but that won’t stop ’em.
Will BlagObamaRhamaRhamaDingDong be frozen under this mile of Chicago ice?
What does this mean for climate?
One thing is for certain, we are going to find out.
Dang! Where’d I put that sweater?
Since I am beginning to favor the Russian peasant’s view of the world (Granted one wish from a genie, his answer–“Kill my neighbors goat”), that would be an irony I think I could enjoy.
Plus, I think I could survive in polar conditions. So, lead on, Macduff!
If there’s one thing that irks Modern Man to no end it’s the deconstruction of the illusion that he is In Control.
Yes, where he will be buried under the ice sheet for millions of years. Until, one day aliens will discover his still frozen body and use him to study our species. They will reunite him with an animatronic version of his father and they will finally be reunited.
Yeah, but Hawking made the premise his beyotch already…
And CO2’s got nothing to do with it. If anyone suggests pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere to reduce the cooling, they will be sadly disappointed. But the plants will like it.
Just a reminder about hubris… Here’s the 2006 prediction for Cycle 24:
This week researchers announced that a storm is coming–the most intense solar maximum in fifty years.
Kinda makes you long for the accuracy and precision of Jeane Dixon.
BBB