Isn’t this, kind of, you know, an act of war?
The navy ship Cheonan sank on March 26 after an explosion on the vessel as it sailed in the Yellow Sea off South Korea’s west coast.
The Post said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because South Korea had not yet disclosed the results of the investigation, said analyses showed the torpedo was identical to a North Korean torpedo previously obtained by South Korea.
The formal accusation is expected to be announced on Thursday and South Korea will ask the U.N. Security Council to take up the matter, Post sources said.
Do they seriously expect the Security Council to do anything about it? Especially with this White House?
i think some norks around the world are going to be at room temp. in the future.
I thought that technically, the Korean war was never formally ended?
It wasn’t, but this is a(nother) breaking of the almost sixty-year truce.
This is exactly what the North Korean government wants to happen. Chaos is good for them.
Or just maybe maybe maybe it was an accident which no one is particularly willing to admit to (a fictional example, with Our Guys goofing up: THE BEDFORD INCIDENT). There’s enough possibility of this to justify a non-response by the South Koreans right now, emotionally repugnant as that is.
Not that I’d be totally pacific about it. I’d send a diplomat to the North with a message saying “That’s one. Do it again and we shall respond when and where we chose with such methods as we chose.” Then I’d get back to the serious business of growing the South Korean economy and the South Korean military as fast as possible.
I might also ponder publically, a la Henry II, about “Who will free me from this turbulent Kim?” and the rewards for doing so.
Or just maybe maybe maybe it was an accident which no one is particularly willing to admit to (a fictional example, with Our Guys goofing up: THE BEDFORD INCIDENT).
Um … In the real world, fiction doesn’t count. That’s one reason we kinda frown on people who persecute Jews for The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.
There’s enough possibility of this to justify a non-response by the South Koreans right now, emotionally repugnant as that is.
Fine. IF the North Koreans did it, and IF it’s really the case that this was an accident, then they can damn well acknowledge it. But if they did it and won’t admit it, then fuck ’em ’til their ears bleed.
I’d send a diplomat to the North with a message saying “That’s one. Do it again and we shall respond when and where we chose with such methods as we chose.”
And the North Korean government and the Iranian government and who knows who-all else will say, “Cool! I wonder how many more chances those cowardly idiots will announce before they admit they won’t do a damned thing?”
My prediction is that the South will go to the Security Council, and will get the blessing to “take appropriate action” or some such diplomatic-speak. This will be followed by a selected North Korean military installation going up in smoke.
See, the Security Council knows that if they disapprove of South Korean action, the South will do whatever they were going to do anyway, and thus make the Security Council look like yahoos.
Going to the Council is a way to make China and Russia look like they can’t (or won’t) protect the North, while possibly forcing additional sanctions from China.
Maybe South Korea should apologize for thoughtlessly destroying those torpedoes with their ship.
Maybe South Korea should apologize for thoughtlessly destroying those torpedoes with their ship.
I expect to hear something like that any day now from the geniuses at foggy bottom.
“Pardon me, sir! Is my face scuffing your jackboot?”
Regardless of the U.N. action or non-action, whether the Security Council talks loudly or harshly to NK, or even if the SC tells SK they had it coming, ultimately it will have NO effect on us in any manner.
However, our fearless leader, The Messiah, The One, P-BO, will apologize to somebody about something. And he’ll want us to pay to replace the SK ship AND the NK torpedo!!
The last thing that South Korea wants is to topple the North. That would mean having to shoulder a huge burden to administer the North. I think they’re going for the ostrich solution to the North Korea problem.
A better example of poor ship handling leading to loss of vessel would be
the Kursk. An apparent torpedo malfunction sank the ship.
However there are 2 possible sources of an external explosion, Mine or Torpedo. A mine would be bad luck. A torpedo would be an incident.
Now is there a definite test to show the vessel hit a torpedo not a mine?
Also what is the appropriate response. Perhaps a quiet sinking of two North Korean ships. Done quietly at night, not too visible, just a fast slap back.
Time is in the favor of South Korea, North Korea is falling apart. Give it time, it will wipe out entirely. Their economy is based upon counterfeiting and drugs (Sounds like Wall Street). However as North Korea lacks the Fed to bail them out, I fully anticipate them just slowly unwinding.
Clearly the Norks were justifiably reacting to the inhuman immigration policies of the Arizona state controlling junta.
Obviously an apology is in order – from us.
Bear in mind, everyone in South Korea has a cousin in North Korea and vice-versa. Neither side is eager to go to war.
Meanwhile, Thailand is on the brink of civil war and nobody notices. Good thing they don’t have the bomb.
Here’s a post at StrategyPage.com:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20100516.aspx
That strategy page didn’t mention the main thing, as I understand it, that keeps South Korea from acting. NK has SK civilian centers covered with massive artillery. Basically, those civilians are being held hostage so SK can’t really act.
This will be followed by a selected North Korean military installation going up in smoke.
That seems the unlikeliest of responses. Remember the non-response to the Pueblo?
This incident is just a continuation of the Kim regime’s Crazy Like a Fox geopolitical strategy. Sure, SK could respond militarily but the risk is finding out that the Crazy is real-crazy, not fake-crazy. As ken anthony points out, Seoul isn’t very far from the 38th parallel.
As ken anthony points out, Seoul isn’t very far from the 38th parallel.
It’s worth noting here that there’s supposedly a lot of artillery aimed at Seoul. I don’t know what shape it’s in, but Seoul definitely is going to think twice before it does anything that aggressive.
Considering that the ROK is going to make a formal presentation of an international investigation (Australian, British, Swedish and US investigators found the torpedo’s screw), how the ROK could not order a military retaliation and stay in power is beyond my comprehension.
I suspect that the ROK is calling the North’s bluff. Although the North can extract a lot of pain in the event of a war, they would lose badly in the end.
IMO the South will ask for reparations, which of course, will not be paid by the North.
Chris,
It is the ROK that is bluffing here, and the North understands this all too well. They (the Norks) have been engaging in outright acts of war for decades now, and the the consequences for them have been precisely nil. There is no reason whatsoever for them to believe that this time will be any different.
The massive amount of Nork artillery aimed at the greater Seoul area means that even in the event of a fairly quick ROK victory, any war with the North would generate unacceptably high civilian casualities and property losses for the ROK. This does not include the roughly 50,000 commando, 80 mini-subs, etc. that the North has available to use against the ROK in the event of any open conflict. The ROK military is quite good, and would likely crush the Nork forces very quickly, but it is highly probable that the Norks would be able to generate extremely high levels of death and destruction in the South that the ROK simply isn’t willing to endure. Hence there is no real probability that the ROK will risk military action of any substantive nature.
What is far more likely is a presentation to the Security Council, an embarassing vote (or two), and then all of this will be quietly ignored. As tragic (and outrageous) as this action was, the consequences of any attempt to do anything substantive about it would generate far more deaths, and far more destruction….
Even in the EXTREMELY unlikely circumstance that the ROK decided to do ‘something’ about the Norks, what could be done? Conquest of the North? This would not be a military problem (the Nork military has rotted away, and would likely make Saddam’s 2003 foces look like the Waffen SS by comparison), but the political complications of a conquest of the North would be horrifying. The ROK has no desire to destroy their economic miracle by embracing their impoverished brothers to the north (the lesson of German reunification and its manifold costs was not lost on them), nor would the Chinese welcome a heavily armed nominally US-allied state on their border, not to mention the flood of refugees that would result from such an action. Even if these issues could be overcome, it is difficult to dismiss the problems of ‘bitter-enders’ in the DPRK (Nork) military engaging in a long, draw-out guerilla action reminiscent of Iraq post 2003.
Bottom line: a few meaningless speeches, then nothing….
Rather than “Norks” I prefer “DANKS”, as in “Dumb A$$ North Koreans”. I believe the Cheonan episode serves to prove my point.
Obama is likely deep in discussions with his advisers trying to triangulate who he should bow to first. Regardless, he will apologize to both sides for how the United States acted stupidly back in the 50’s by not finding a firm solution to the pointless Korean war. Then, he will offer then a stimulus or a bailout, “Bailout? Stimulus? Anybody? Anybody?”
I agree with Starless. Why would the South attack a military installation as tit for tat for this incident? The North, as always, would ignore any claim that they struck the first blow, and would point to the South as aggressors, both in violating their borders and then attacking their military installations. Unless the South wants war, and I agree with others that it does not, the tit-for-tat, even with UNSC blessing (which I doubt they would ever give) is pointless.
That doesn’t mean the Republic of Korea might not be more open to firing on DPRK vessels in the future. ROK has done that pretty recently. But that’s a bit different than a planned military strike.
Why would the South attack a military installation as tit for tat for this incident? What exactly are the ROK politicians going to say to their constituents if they don’t? Or for that matter, to the ROK military, which would now think it’s walking around with a “kick me” sign on its back? After all, the generals ran the South for all but a year or so from 1961 to 1987.
No, I think the ROK is getting their ducks in a row, preparatory to sticking it to the PDRK.
What exactly are the ROK politicians going to say to their constituents if they don’t?
Probably something like what Obama said to you. After all, the Fort Hood shooting, the Christmas Day bombing attempt, and the Times Square bombing attempt has done nothing to make you question why the Obama administration considers “right wing militants” to be the major threat to US civilians.
Leland: except neither Obama nor myself consider right wing militants to be the major threat to US civilians. They are a threat, but not the exclusive, only or even most serious threat.
You really should try to understand what the other side is actually thinking and saying, if only to better understand your adversary.
You really should try to understand what the other side is actually thinking and saying, if only to better understand your adversary.
Yeah, I heard, got your number figured out.
Greta on Fox, talking to John Bolton, summarizing the situation says S. Korea can’t attack N. Korea because NK has nukes.
I just had to groan.
Austin Bay has an interesting analysis at:
http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20100511232546.aspx
He points out that a strike in North Korea is risky given that Seoul’s suburbs lie within range of North Korean artillery, but North Korean merchant ships could be intercepted and detained to put pressure on Pyongyang.