This post by Mark Whittington prompts me to clarify my position. I don’t think that the Chinese space program is flawed because it is simply a copy of Russian technology (though it is to a large extent), and I’ve never said that. I believe that it’s flawed because it’s a copy of Russian (and, in the 1960s, American) space vehicle philosophy.

They apparently think that the road to the universe lies in putting up capsules on expendable (and intrinsically expensive and unreliable, at least at the flight rates contemplated) launchers. Forty years ago, this was an approach that made sense to win a race to the Moon. In the twenty-first century, it’s a road to frustration and stagnation.

As I wrote last week, a true free-market approach (of which, under the current regime, I suspect they’re incapable) will leave them in the dust. That’s why I don’t even consider them relevant to our species’ future in space, unless they display some dramatic change in approach.