It sure doesn’t look like Pelosi has the votes. And the House vote is the one that counts, because once it’s passed, it doesn’t matter whether they do the reconciliation in the Senate — the president can just sign the monstrosity, and it becomes law.
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I thought the general assumption when the House passed their version of the bill that the Democrats held in reserve could be relied upon to vote if needed down the line. Is that no longer the assumption regarding the Senate version of the bill?
Several Senators have commented that they can not say how they will vote on a bill that is yet to be written. This has spooked the House members.
Wavering Dems in the House have every incentive to remain publicly undecided until the last minute, to maximize their leverage. But when it comes to a vote, the worst case scenario for vulnerable Dems (especially ones who voted Aye the last time around) is to have the bill fail: then they’re not only tied to a somewhat unpopular bill, but they can’t run on the benefits that the bill would deliver.
Intrade has odds of passage at 50-50.
the president can just sign the monstrosity, and it becomes law
Yes, when you get five committees, 218 Congressmen, and 60 Senators (representing 65% of the country) to vote for a bill, the president can sign it into law. Funny how that works.
Amen. If the House passes the Senate bill, it’s over. ObamaCare has been rammed down our throat.
“Wavering Dems in the House have every incentive to remain publicly undecided until the last minute, to maximize their leverage.”
Leverage for what, Jim? Another Louisiana Purchase? Cornhusker Kickback? Why do they need leverage?
“representing 65% of the country”
And yet every poll says the public doesn’t want it and the Dem leadership is resorting to parlimentary tricks to pass it. Yes, funny how that works.
Jim,
Put your money where your mouth is…I propose we each send Rand a check for $1000. When the vote takes place, Rand sends the winner (i.e. the one of us that picked the right result) a check for $1990 (Rand gets to keep $10 for processing fees, I am…after all… a capitalist).
Put up or PLEASE shut up
ROFLMAO
Jim, the point of the reconciliation scam is that the House can’t make changes to the Senate bill. So I echo Bill Maron: Leverage for what?
There must be some way to analyze this House-passing-the-Senate-Bill vs. What’s-in-the-Reconciliation gamble in a manner similar to the Iterative Prisoner’s Dilemma. Clearly that’s what’s holding this up, or this thing would have already been signed.
For my part, I’m adopting the Carl Pham (where the hell is he, anyway?) Doctrine — drag this s–t out ’till November. Obama should put his mug on TeeVee every. single. day. and campaign for every Congressman up for re-election. Please do it, for Hope & Change.
What I wonder is how Jim reconciles “a somewhat unpopular bill” with “representing 65% of the country”. If there’s that much support, why would any Congressman be so afraid of being associated with it?