Bob Clarebrough has some useful thoughts on the risk of space flight, for NASA and private enterprise, over at The Space Review. This is a very important topic, and one that I want to write a long post on, when I get unburied from current activities.
4 thoughts on “Complexity And Danger”
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Is the Polynesian achievement beyond our capabilities today?
In other words, do people willing to take those kinds of risks still exist? I believe the answer is yes. The problem is cost of entry. But I also don’t think it’s the problem most people think it is. Once we have an offworld economy, the equivalent of a hand carved canoe will come to compete with the more complex machinery. Perhaps as simple a large inflatable with a solar sail and a few good telescopes plus supplies.
I could find some nuts that would take on the challenge.
Despite a growing, though reluctant, awareness that private enterprise may have a significant role to play, the emphasis seems to be on seeking commercial support only for what NASA is trying to do anyway.
This is what has concerned me throughout the fight over the new transport system for ISS, but from the commercial side. Is the momentum of commercial space moving from by-your-bootstraps venture capitalists to organizations vying to become Big Aerospace Mk 2? IOW, are companies like SpaceX, by accident or design, just trying to become the latest version of Boeing?
The thing that impressed me the most about the proliferation of small aerospace companies like Armadillo, XCOR, and even Scaled Composites was their determination to avoid suckling at the federal funding teat. They seemed to understand that once they started down that path it would be extremely difficult to get off of it. That seems to have changed.
I believe companies like SpaceX are making a rational business decision. If there’s a federal contract that will increase their revenues, what’s wrong with them pursuing it? If they’re successful, it’ll increase their customer base and their credibility for winning additional work from civilian satellite companies.
Interesting reading. A colleague of mine has asked me the following comment so I thought I would post it here:
I’m interested to see the mathematical working used to derive the formula you established for complexity, so that I am able to explain the rationale behind the formaula in ‘business speak’