…backed up by real math and science, instead of ideology. Thoughts on Kyopenhagen and Climaquiddick from Bjorn Lomborg:
…let’s say we index 1990 global emissions at 100. If there were no Kyoto at all, the 2010 level would have been 142.7.
With full Kyoto implementation, it would have been 133. In fact, the actual outcome of Kyoto is likely to be a 2010 level of 142.2 ― virtually the same as if we had done nothing at all. Given 12 years of continuous talks and praise for Kyoto, this is not much of an accomplishment.
The Kyoto Protocol did not fail because any one nation let the rest of the world down. It failed because making quick, drastic cuts in carbon emissions is extremely expensive.
Whether or not Copenhagen is declared a political victory, that inescapable fact of economic life will once again prevail ― and grand promises will once again go unfulfilled.
Fortunately, reality will still prevail, despite the speechifying and bloviating.
That’s the thing to remember about the Kyoto Treaty. The only people who complied had no obligations under the treaty. Everyone else who had promised something, including the Europeans, failed to deliver.
I’ve long thought international efforts to limit CO2 emissions would not work. Kyoto was, if anything, even more feckless than I expected. Even so, I found its failure amusing.
I’d differ with Lomborg’s article on what to do about it, though. Geoengineering also needs to get significant research funding. I’d go so far as to suggest geoengineering be elevated to one of the primary driving goals of the space program. Space-based geoengineering solutions could involve extensive activities on the moon, in cis-lunar space, and at the earth-sun L1 point.
Copenhagen…where the temperature is below normal for this time of year!