We were just missed by an asteroid this morning, with only three days warning, and well inside the orbit of the moon:
The rock, estimated to be no more than 200 feet wide, zoomed past our planet at an altitude of 40,000 miles at 1:44 p.m. universal time — or 8:44 EST.
Dubbed 2009 DD45, it was discovered only on Friday by Australian astronomers.
“…no more than 200 feet wide…”?
That’s plenty big enough to pack a hell of a wallop if it had hit off shore, likely wiping out much of the coastline of the surrounding continents. If it hit a populated area, it could have been easily mistaken for a nuke initially, perhaps setting off an international crisis, and even retaliation.
There is no excuse for how little prepared we are for these things.
A dense asteroid about 200 feet wide could hit with the force of a multi-megaton bomb. It could do a considerable amount of damage whereever it hit.
With only 3 days warning, I don’t know what could’ve been done about it had it been on an impact trajectory. We need much earlier detection to have much of a chance at deflecting something that size.
As someone who works at a control facility for a satellite with an apogee that is TWICE that distance, I say that’s WAY too close for comfort!
All I could think of was Maxwell Smart saying, “Missed it by that much”. That is awfully close.
If you could capture said rock and sell it for $100 a pound it would be worth $50 billion. I wonder when it’s coming back.
Without knowing something of the composition, why would someone buy it? And even if seriously abundant in something seriously valuable (platnium?) what would happen to the market when you throw that much at it at once?
Frank G:
Even at $1/lb, it would still bring in $500M. And there are plenty of folks, I suspect, who would be happy to buy such a rock (or a pound of it), in order to have a genuine, certified space rock/asteroid.
Consider the number of folks who sending money to the “International Star Registry” to have their name appended to a star.
Or the number of folks who bought Obama coins which were simply 50-cent pieces w/ Obama’s picture pasted on it.
So, without a space program, what exactly are we supposed to do about such things?
Maybe we should spend some stimulus money on developing a way to slow them down inside the atmosphere so we can soft land them. No one seems interested in developing a space program that will get us enough presence in space so that we can deal with them out there.
Frightening.
Both the rock and Rod’s business case analysis. But mostly the rock. We really need better detection.
Maybe if it had actually hit a satellite this problem would finally catch the attention of Washington and Brussels.
You won’t get the proper attention till one actually hits,
and does “lead story” levels of damage. Let’s hope its a small one.
Paul
Depends, Paul. If it lands in the next few years, it will be Bush’s fault, the result of Failed Policies Of The Past, so nothing will need to be done.
That rock would have made a crater between 2-3 km in diameter.
If it lands in the next few years, it will be Bush’s fault, the result of Failed Policies Of The Past, so nothing will need to be done.
Wrong Carl. The thing to be done is to stop those failed policies. We need Hope and Change!
First an executive order will go out to stop observatories from wasting money looking at the sky like they previously did.
Second, it will be suggested that these observatories, which exist in foreign lands away from proper judicial oversight, be closed with the intent to build ones closer to major metropolitan areas.
Then, after a few weeks, it will be determined that the observatories are fine, but we still need change. Unfortunately in haste, Congress will have already passed a $1 tln dollar spending bill which will include $100 mln for new observatories to look for asteroids, $50 bln to dismantle the current observatories, and $100 bln to build space telescopes that look at the Earth to track manmade global warming.
Obama and Congress will call it a jobs package. Chris Gerrib will comment on Rand’s blog how tearing down old, yet very functional, observatories improves the economy. MZ will praise the efforts to confront global climate change.
Many years later, Republicans might come back in power… an asteroid will hit Earth, and we will be told that the magnitude of death and destruction is something that government could have prevented, but neither political party should be held responsible for making decision that hindered prevention efforts.
To prevent another disaster, $300 bln will be spent to start the Transterrestrial Security Agency that will monitor the skies for other deadly asteroids. After 3 years, this will be called a failure and a waste of taxpayer dollars, because no other asteroids will have hit Earth.
40,000 miles is 11 radii from the center of the Earth. 40,000 mile orbit is only 121 times the cross section of the Earth. Am I right to surmise that we should expect to be hit by one for every 120 that miss within that range?
Am I right to surmise that we should expect to be hit by one for every 120 that miss within that range?
No, it’s actually worse than that, because of the attraction of earth’s gravity. The closer they are, the more the pull…
By the way, Sam, tell me if you want to post again, and I’ll set it up on the new software.
3 days warning and this one is likely to be coming back (how soon?)
What I wonder is how many have no warning and zip by us unnoticed?