There’s an old fable about a condemned prisoner, who makes a deal with the King. He promises that, if his life is spared for a year, he will teach the King’s favorite horse to sing. The King, amused, decides to give him a shot.
As he’s being led back to his cell in the stable, the guard asks him, “What are you doing? Are you crazy? You’ll never teach that horse to sing.”
The prisoner replies, “I have a year. Much can happen in a year. The King could die. I could die. The horse could die. Or, the horse might learn to sing.”
After Super Tuesday, many viewed Hillary’s campaign as condemned, and many urged her to pull out for the good of the party. But the good of the party will always come second (or third, or fourth, or…) to what’s good for Hillary, and her ambition, and sense of entitlement to both the nomination and the presidency. And anyone who doesn’t think that she has such a sense only has to go rewatch that interview with Katie Couric, in which she confidently asserted that she has not considered what she will do if she is not the nominee, because she is going to be the nominee (note: this is why her campaign didn’t have a plan for after Super Tuesday–they didn’t think that they needed one). She is not going to give up, any more than when Bill was under fire, and impeached. As John Podhoretz notes:
Hillary Clinton is not stupid. She knows perfectly well that she’s not going to catch up with Barack Obama when it comes to delegates or the overall popular vote in the primaries, and that her lead with superdelegates is not at all secure. She’s staying in the race to see what happens — to lengthen it so that there is a chance Obama will implode for some reason or combination of reasons, leaving her to pick up the pieces.
Exactly. She has nothing to lose by staying in, except for the potential wrath of some in her party, to which she is indifferent. And now that Obama’s media bubble is finally popping, it doesn’t look like that bad a bet. She may not be able to tutor singing horses, but it looks like she’s finally taught the press to cover Obama more objectively, which may be all that she needs.
But even if it doesn’t pan out, I’ve predicted before that if she doesn’t get the nomination, she’ll figure out how to sabotage Obama’s candidacy, because she’ll figure that her only hope is to run against McCain in 2012. I still think that’s true, and I’d say that the fact that she’s willing to tear the party apart by fighting so hard for a poisoned chalice is pretty strong evidence of it.
There’s still the over 200 delegates from the two nullified elections in Florida and Michigan that Clinton won. If those were counted, she’d be winning. It might become a factor in the convention. It’s pretty clear that Florida and Michigan, since they went through with the election despite the nullification threats, are going to contest their nullifications. If they succeed, even partially, this could rescue Clinton’s campaign. As I see it, it’s not over till the convention is done.
Plus, now there’s that Governor’s office in New York coming up in 2010 with no strong candidate – -a perfect way to negate the whole discussion about the exact nature of her “executive experience”.
Just sayin’…
As I see it, it’s not over till the convention is done.
Are you saying it’s not over until the fat horse sings?
Plus, now there’s that Governor’s office in New York coming up in 2010 with no strong candidate – -a perfect way to negate the whole discussion about the exact nature of her “executive experience.”
That means that one of the campaign themes will be whether or not she’ll serve out her full term, just as it was in the Senate race(s).
Karl, and others interested in the delegate math, have you seen this:
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/
It lets you play around with different scenarios. According to it, even if Clinton won every contest, including revotes in Michigan and Florida, by an average of 58% Clinton to 42% Obama, Obama would still have more pledged delegates. It casts at least some doubt on your theory that Florida and Michigan could save Clinton. Try the site!
The Mote in God’s Eye is my favorite sci-fi book. Ever.
Who’s Crazy Eddie?
I’m not sure Hildebeast will want the governor’s job. I suspect she’d see running a state is rather boring compared to being Senator or President. It’s a more detail oriented job, and I’m not sure she wants to master those details. Interesting thought, however.
As to 2012, I don’t see her playing for the next four years, because I don’t see her party giving her another chance. If she couldn’t win it this time with all the advantages of money, clout and ‘inevitability’, why would Democrats want to take a chance on her in ’12 when she’s just another candidate?
If she loses the fight to Obama, I see her as another Ted Kennedy: a ‘lioness’ (or dowager, take your pick) in the Senate until she’s very old and very gray.
If she loses the fight to Obama, I see her as another Ted Kennedy: a ‘lioness’ (or dowager, take your pick) in the Senate until she’s very old and very gray.
One can only hope