I don’t know how likely this is but suppose neither candidate Trump or Harris hits the magic number of 270 electoral votes. That would throw it into the House of Representatives (the new post-election house of representatives). I believe each state regardless of the relative distribution of democrat to republican only gets one vote per state. It might turn out to be the case given this scenario that neither Harris nor Trump can get the majority necessary to win. Finally they decide to pick another candidate; my understanding is they can pick whoever they want (if Constitutionally eligible to serve) they’re not limited to the 2 major candidates. Dare I say it, President Ron Desantis? Basically Trump light probably 80-90% of the policies without any of the baggage.
VP would be similarly selected in the New Senate. All we would need would be some third party candidate somehow managing to win enough electoral votes that no one gets to 270.
As I read the Twelfth Amendment, the House is limited to voting among those who received at least one Electoral Vote. That *could* include DeSantis, but since he’s not appearing on ballots it would have to be from a faithless Elector. So it’s not impossible, but it’s pretty unlikely. For a dark horse, Jill Stein or even RFK Jr is more likely, but I don’t see them getting Electoral votes either, and I can’t see the House swinging to either of them if they did.
Nate Silver says the chance of it falling to the House is 0.4%. The states that are running neck-and-neck don’t combinatorily add up to a tie no matter which way each falls, so it takes some state that was thought to be a lock going vastly differently than expected, *without* that being part of a general polling error across more states.
Much more likely in the unlikely case of a tie is just that the House picks Trump.
Of course a Civil War wouldn’t necessarily be a shooting war Wodun (especially if Trump wins with the majority of the military and law enforcement on his side). I think the opposition would be limited to more increasingly tepid lawfare which would likely lose.
An important caveat of course is that Trump has to not only “win” the election, but survive to be inaugurated. We still have the threat (in addition to more assassination attempts) of Merchan’s sentencing on the 18th of this month. I expect jail time ordered and wouldn’t be surprised if he tried to get Trump taken into custody immediately. Imagine Trump somehow separated form his SS detail when taken into custody (rapidly before the appeals court(s) act). Stabbed in jail? That would be one trigger point of your feared Civil War. Also remember Jack Smith’s threat to continue to push forward regardless of who wins the election with the Jan6th case (with Chutkan’s approval) to get a conviction before said inauguration. Given the chance she wouldn’t hesitate to jail Trump to prevent him from being sworn in as POTUS.
Who, exactly, is Merchan going to be able to get to even try to take a President-Elect into custody? If Trump wins, Jack Smith – who was not legitimately appointed to his position in the first place – would be well-advised to hire his own counsel and start working on keeping himself out of a federal lockup.
“Who, exactly, is Merchan going to be able to get to even try to take a President-Elect into custody? ”
Not sure about that but what if the Biden administration ordered Trump’s secret service detail to stand down and not interfere if Merchan’s sentences Trump to jail and tries to have law enforcement take him immediately to prison. Even if Trump wins the election he’s not President until sworn in well into January; lots of shit can go down before that.
If there’s no clear majority of Electors for President, then the House, votes as states, choose among the top three vote getters. Based on 2016, I would expect lots of faithless electors if that seems to be the case, so there would be a third candidate to choose from. A little collusion and confusion, and suddenly Gretchen Whitmer has 5 EVs and comes in third.
It would be really amusing to have California legislature direct their electors to vote for Gavin Newsome, so he could be the compromise.
The text of the 12th Amendment has some other little time bombs in it that I’m sure the Democrats are looking to exploit if necessary.
If after it goes to the House of Representatives and after many ballots no one reaches the clear majority needed from among the candidates to choose from then when Biden’s term ends the next president would obviously be the speaker of the house whoever that is. I thought under that unlikely scenario that the House of Representatives has the authority to pick whomever they want to be the speaker of the house even someone not in the House of Representatives
No. At the same time the House is voting, the Senate chooses the VP from the top two vote getters. If there’s no one elected President by 20 January, then the VP assumes the office. That’s how we could end up with President Vance, assuming the Stupid Party manages to not lose the Senate too. (We could also end up with President Harris and VP Vance, or Trump and Walz).
(I remember an article in Life Magazine 1968 which played out these scenarios. Somehow they had John Lindsay ending up being sworn in.)
If you want us to relax David Spain you’ve got to give us something else to think about then the thought of that utter incompetent nincompoop queen word salad harris being the next president for 4 years (possibly 8).
You’ve got to realize Tim that politics is no different than anything else in the physical world. Chaos and disorder (cold over hot, incompetence over competence) eventually wins out…
“Chaos and disorder (cold over hot, incompetence over competence) eventually wins out…”
The challenge old man is to delay that sorry fate as long as possible. Not fiddle while Rome burns…while listening to the fingernails on the blackboard screeching of the afore mentioned ‘incompetent nincompoop”.
“We are at a cusp that sees us poised to become interplanetary, eliminate a variety of health problems, end scarcity of a number of resources, and ensure our survival as a species (at least for now).”
I’ve been trying to send this message for some time now.
We are strategically off balance. Our finances and economy are a mess and any little thing could send us to our doom. Knowing this, our adversaries pull us in many directions at once, depleting our stores, exacerbating our debt, and deteriorating our military. If war or economic calamity happen, we don’t have the tools we need to respond.
We are also in the midst of a cultural revolution, with progressive marxists in control of many key institutions and positions of power in the government. Will the global left (Russia, China, Iran, South America and Europe) join their comrades in destabilizing the USA? They will continue to try.
We need to avoid any major conflicts while we get our own affairs in order with our finances, economy, and manufacturing and put an end to the Marxist Revolution. We do that and in 10-20 years, we wont have to worry about Russia, China (maybe), or anyone else. Wealth and technological advancement will save us from their doomsday weapons and desires of conquest.
Far too many people are willing to rush at full speed into the trap that has been set.
Also, Democrats have been cheating in elections for over 150 years and Republicans have managed to win some elections. There will be cheating but that doesn’t mean Democrats will win.
The hissy fit from the Democrat’s riot squad and federal employees are unavoidable and will likely happen even if Democrats win.
I don’t know how likely this is but suppose neither candidate Trump or Harris hits the magic number of 270 electoral votes. That would throw it into the House of Representatives (the new post-election house of representatives). I believe each state regardless of the relative distribution of democrat to republican only gets one vote per state. It might turn out to be the case given this scenario that neither Harris nor Trump can get the majority necessary to win. Finally they decide to pick another candidate; my understanding is they can pick whoever they want (if Constitutionally eligible to serve) they’re not limited to the 2 major candidates. Dare I say it, President Ron Desantis? Basically Trump light probably 80-90% of the policies without any of the baggage.
VP would be similarly selected in the New Senate. All we would need would be some third party candidate somehow managing to win enough electoral votes that no one gets to 270.
As I read the Twelfth Amendment, the House is limited to voting among those who received at least one Electoral Vote. That *could* include DeSantis, but since he’s not appearing on ballots it would have to be from a faithless Elector. So it’s not impossible, but it’s pretty unlikely. For a dark horse, Jill Stein or even RFK Jr is more likely, but I don’t see them getting Electoral votes either, and I can’t see the House swinging to either of them if they did.
Nate Silver says the chance of it falling to the House is 0.4%. The states that are running neck-and-neck don’t combinatorily add up to a tie no matter which way each falls, so it takes some state that was thought to be a lock going vastly differently than expected, *without* that being part of a general polling error across more states.
Much more likely in the unlikely case of a tie is just that the House picks Trump.
That’s a lot of words for Civil War, which will be the outcome no matter who is selected.
“That’s a lot of words for Civil War,”
Of course a Civil War wouldn’t necessarily be a shooting war Wodun (especially if Trump wins with the majority of the military and law enforcement on his side). I think the opposition would be limited to more increasingly tepid lawfare which would likely lose.
An important caveat of course is that Trump has to not only “win” the election, but survive to be inaugurated. We still have the threat (in addition to more assassination attempts) of Merchan’s sentencing on the 18th of this month. I expect jail time ordered and wouldn’t be surprised if he tried to get Trump taken into custody immediately. Imagine Trump somehow separated form his SS detail when taken into custody (rapidly before the appeals court(s) act). Stabbed in jail? That would be one trigger point of your feared Civil War. Also remember Jack Smith’s threat to continue to push forward regardless of who wins the election with the Jan6th case (with Chutkan’s approval) to get a conviction before said inauguration. Given the chance she wouldn’t hesitate to jail Trump to prevent him from being sworn in as POTUS.
Who, exactly, is Merchan going to be able to get to even try to take a President-Elect into custody? If Trump wins, Jack Smith – who was not legitimately appointed to his position in the first place – would be well-advised to hire his own counsel and start working on keeping himself out of a federal lockup.
“Who, exactly, is Merchan going to be able to get to even try to take a President-Elect into custody? ”
Not sure about that but what if the Biden administration ordered Trump’s secret service detail to stand down and not interfere if Merchan’s sentences Trump to jail and tries to have law enforcement take him immediately to prison. Even if Trump wins the election he’s not President until sworn in well into January; lots of shit can go down before that.
If there’s no clear majority of Electors for President, then the House, votes as states, choose among the top three vote getters. Based on 2016, I would expect lots of faithless electors if that seems to be the case, so there would be a third candidate to choose from. A little collusion and confusion, and suddenly Gretchen Whitmer has 5 EVs and comes in third.
It would be really amusing to have California legislature direct their electors to vote for Gavin Newsome, so he could be the compromise.
The text of the 12th Amendment has some other little time bombs in it that I’m sure the Democrats are looking to exploit if necessary.
If after it goes to the House of Representatives and after many ballots no one reaches the clear majority needed from among the candidates to choose from then when Biden’s term ends the next president would obviously be the speaker of the house whoever that is. I thought under that unlikely scenario that the House of Representatives has the authority to pick whomever they want to be the speaker of the house even someone not in the House of Representatives
No. At the same time the House is voting, the Senate chooses the VP from the top two vote getters. If there’s no one elected President by 20 January, then the VP assumes the office. That’s how we could end up with President Vance, assuming the Stupid Party manages to not lose the Senate too. (We could also end up with President Harris and VP Vance, or Trump and Walz).
(I remember an article in Life Magazine 1968 which played out these scenarios. Somehow they had John Lindsay ending up being sworn in.)
Everyone just relax. It’ll be Harris for the win… I’m relying on physics to make this prediction.*
*The Law of Entropy.
If you want us to relax David Spain you’ve got to give us something else to think about then the thought of that utter incompetent nincompoop queen word salad harris being the next president for 4 years (possibly 8).
You’ve got to realize Tim that politics is no different than anything else in the physical world. Chaos and disorder (cold over hot, incompetence over competence) eventually wins out…
“Chaos and disorder (cold over hot, incompetence over competence) eventually wins out…”
The challenge old man is to delay that sorry fate as long as possible. Not fiddle while Rome burns…while listening to the fingernails on the blackboard screeching of the afore mentioned ‘incompetent nincompoop”.
“We are at a cusp that sees us poised to become interplanetary, eliminate a variety of health problems, end scarcity of a number of resources, and ensure our survival as a species (at least for now).”
I’ve been trying to send this message for some time now.
We are strategically off balance. Our finances and economy are a mess and any little thing could send us to our doom. Knowing this, our adversaries pull us in many directions at once, depleting our stores, exacerbating our debt, and deteriorating our military. If war or economic calamity happen, we don’t have the tools we need to respond.
We are also in the midst of a cultural revolution, with progressive marxists in control of many key institutions and positions of power in the government. Will the global left (Russia, China, Iran, South America and Europe) join their comrades in destabilizing the USA? They will continue to try.
We need to avoid any major conflicts while we get our own affairs in order with our finances, economy, and manufacturing and put an end to the Marxist Revolution. We do that and in 10-20 years, we wont have to worry about Russia, China (maybe), or anyone else. Wealth and technological advancement will save us from their doomsday weapons and desires of conquest.
Far too many people are willing to rush at full speed into the trap that has been set.
Also, Democrats have been cheating in elections for over 150 years and Republicans have managed to win some elections. There will be cheating but that doesn’t mean Democrats will win.
The hissy fit from the Democrat’s riot squad and federal employees are unavoidable and will likely happen even if Democrats win.