Is it in a potential death spiral?
‼️ “”The worst crisis in 30 years”: Russia’s coal mining industry begins to collapse”
— Prune60 (@Prune602) October 8, 2024
There are several things I want to point out about this situation https://t.co/nNxdZyiYOf pic.twitter.com/twFB9QADKy
People have been saying their economy is crashing since the war started but it hasnt. Have to take all this propaganda with skepticism.
Want to hurt Russia economically? Take out the ghost fleet.
It is odd that the entire strategy employed is to get to a negotiated settlement instead of a military victory but those running the show don’t want to negotiate the end and embrace attrition. Well, attrition goes both ways.
People have been saying their economy is crashing since the war started but it hasnt.
Rather that it is crashing slowly. It keeps getting weaker and weaker.
It is odd that the entire strategy employed is to get to a negotiated settlement instead of a military victory
How does Ukraine and company get that military victory? Are you advocating for a huge NATO intervention in the war? Not as concerned about nuclear war as you were earlier?
My take is that this is could turn out well for China. They have an interest in maintaining a high attrition war. A Russia with a crippled economy and all those resources would be a useful asset. No one else has that interest, but neither do they have the power to make the Ukraine war magically something else.
It’s always useful to recall Adam Smith’s admonition that “there is a lot of ruin in a nation.” In the case of Russia, we’re in the process of finding out just how much.
The collapse of the Russian economy, like the collapse of the Soviet Union, is a process, not an event. Lots of moving parts that have to quit moving.
The railroad industry being short of rolling stock to move the product of the coal industry will, at some point, affect the production of electricity. The Russian railroads are about 70% electrified. Ukrainians going after both rail and generation infrastructure will simply accelerate matters.
Enough such feedback loops trending down in death spirals and, at some point, that will be all she wrote for the Russian state. The continued existence of Russia, being a net negative for most of the rest of the world, we should be doing everything we can to chivvy it along toward the graveyard. Among other things, that means sending even more arms to the Ukrainians and removing whatever restrictions we still place on their use.