Is it in a potential death spiral?
‼️ “”The worst crisis in 30 years”: Russia’s coal mining industry begins to collapse”
— Prune60 (@Prune602) October 8, 2024
There are several things I want to point out about this situation https://t.co/nNxdZyiYOf pic.twitter.com/twFB9QADKy
People have been saying their economy is crashing since the war started but it hasnt. Have to take all this propaganda with skepticism.
Want to hurt Russia economically? Take out the ghost fleet.
It is odd that the entire strategy employed is to get to a negotiated settlement instead of a military victory but those running the show don’t want to negotiate the end and embrace attrition. Well, attrition goes both ways.
People have been saying their economy is crashing since the war started but it hasnt.
Rather that it is crashing slowly. It keeps getting weaker and weaker.
It is odd that the entire strategy employed is to get to a negotiated settlement instead of a military victory
How does Ukraine and company get that military victory? Are you advocating for a huge NATO intervention in the war? Not as concerned about nuclear war as you were earlier?
My take is that this is could turn out well for China. They have an interest in maintaining a high attrition war. A Russia with a crippled economy and all those resources would be a useful asset. No one else has that interest, but neither do they have the power to make the Ukraine war magically something else.
“How does Ukraine and company get that military victory? Are you advocating for a huge NATO intervention in the war? Not as concerned about nuclear war as you were earlier?”
Strawmen. I suggested one way in my comment.
If Ukraine can’t do what they need to to get a military victory, why are we still involved? And if the goal is a negotiated settlement, then why not do that?
We face real threats but don’t know under what conditions Russia would use nukes or ASATs with any specificity. When you feel mush, push. When you feel steel, stop. Is a poor strategy to adopt here.
People keep talking about Russia using nukes in Ukraine but when Russia feels the need to use them, it will be against us.
IMO, there is a lot of latitude in what Ukraine can do that wouldn’t trigger a nuclear war but the people in charge outside of Ukraine and the Ukrainiac cheerleaders have shown they don’t have good judgement.
We are in an odd place where there is intraparty warfare between factions of the global left and a lot of the people who support Ukraine are totalitarians no better than Putin. I get why some well meaning people on the right go along but not why they give carte blanche to these people and just gobble up propaganda without being the slightest skeptical of it.
It’s always useful to recall Adam Smith’s admonition that “there is a lot of ruin in a nation.” In the case of Russia, we’re in the process of finding out just how much.
The collapse of the Russian economy, like the collapse of the Soviet Union, is a process, not an event. Lots of moving parts that have to quit moving.
The railroad industry being short of rolling stock to move the product of the coal industry will, at some point, affect the production of electricity. The Russian railroads are about 70% electrified. Ukrainians going after both rail and generation infrastructure will simply accelerate matters.
Enough such feedback loops trending down in death spirals and, at some point, that will be all she wrote for the Russian state. The continued existence of Russia, being a net negative for most of the rest of the world, we should be doing everything we can to chivvy it along toward the graveyard. Among other things, that means sending even more arms to the Ukrainians and removing whatever restrictions we still place on their use.
You guys are just making excuses. Predictions of impending Russia DOOM have been comical in accuracy. I’m not saying Russia has a great economy, just to be wary of the propaganda. Russia certainly could have their economy collapse someday but we need to take into account all the failed predictions. Having a more realistic view of reality doesn’t mean you don’t support Ukraine.
Unfortunately, “There is a lot of ruin in a nation” applies to Ukraine, as well, and there is not as nearly as much to ruin as there is in Russia. I fear that by the time there isn’t much of a coal industry left in Russia, there may not be much of a Ukraine left, either. They’ve already lost 10 million people out of a prewar population of 37 million (itself a massive reduction from their 1991 population of 51 million), thanks to not just war casualties but refugee migration and Russian conquest, nor does that count how many will be effectively disabled.
The legacy of Soviet communism continues to be the gift that keeps on giving.