11 thoughts on “Putin’s Embarrassment”

    1. There’s no way to discern the truth about what is going on in the ground other than through “ones own” national intelligence assets.

      I can see the invasion into Russia as a way to relieve pressure on other more vital fronts. AND as a way to gain hostages for a later PoW swap. Ukraine needs soldiers far worse than does Russia….

      OTOH I’m not sure why a tactical nuke hasn’t gone off in Kiev yet either… Esp. while we are still under Biden time.

      1. The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk and Belgorod oblasts is certainly a way to relieve pressure on other fronts – and it seems to be working. The troops being used in the failed attempt on Kharkiv are being at least partially withdrawn to try dealing with Kursk. I think the Belgorod incursion is probably Ukraine’s effort to cut them off and destroy them en route.

        So long as the war was being fought exclusively on Ukrainian territory it was certainly true that Ukraine had more need of soldiers than did Russia. But now that the Rodina itself is in play, the shoe is very much on the other foot. Russia is simply too big to keep garrisoned everywhere marauding Ukrainians might choose to go without pulling a lot of Russian troops out of Ukraine to try doing it.

        The reason no nukes have yet gone off is, I suspect, because Putin is:

        1. no longer sure that any of them actually still work, and

        2. no longer trusts anyone in the Russian military with the keys and codes for them.

        Then, of course, there’s the uncertainty about what some, or all, of the NATO countries might do should Putin actually manage to cork off a working nuke. Putin knows that the U.S., at least, has him physically tracked 24/7/365.

    2. If you get all of your news from Russian apologists I’m sure it seems that way – at least until it becomes too much for the usual lies to cover up. The Ukies are still running amok in Kursk oblast and, now, in Belgorod oblast as well.

      About the burning cooling tower, the Ruskies say it was a Ukie drone and the Ukies say it was Russians setting fire to a pile of tires. The IAEA says it was neither after taking a look. Given that the nuclear plant in question has been shut down for months, the question is barely of academic interest.

  2. “OTOH I’m not sure why a tactical nuke hasn’t gone off in Kiev yet either… Esp. while we are still under Biden time.”

    There’s still time. Unless he dies in office, Biden will still be there until next January 20th. Perhaps the most dangerous time would be after the election and before the inauguration.

    1. I think the Ukrainians are making a best-efforts push to wrap up this whole war with a grand territorial swap before the U.S. elects another President of whichever party. I’d give them decent odds at succeeding too if they keep grabbing up nearly undefended Russian territory – there’s just so much of it.

  3. Nothing to stop Putin from detonating a large nuke at Tyotkino, on Russian territory. Probably dam and contaminate the Seym River and wreak havoc downstream all the way to the Black Sea. “Just a test,” he’d say. “Hey, comedians, want to see another one?”

    1. The ideal time for a nuclear response to the Ukrainian invasion was a week or more ago. Didn’t happen then and I don’t see it happening now. Quite apart from any other considerations, what happens if Putin does cork off a nuke either in Ukraine or on Russian soil and it doesn’t solve his problem? What does he do then? He doesn’t seem to scare the Ukies much but then the nuclear saber-rattling is mainly for the benefit of Ukraine’s timid Western “allies.”

  4. Russia and Iran took advantage of a senile American President to wage war, miscalculations. Israel and Ukraine are taking advantage of a senile American President to take the fight to their enemies. Miscalculations?

    It is hard to say at this point but Iran is fighting a proxy war against Israel while Israel has no proxies and must fight everyone. Ukraine can’t win the war without striking at Russia’s means of production and just like hostages are exchanged for hostages, having Russian lands on the table would help a lot.

    1. I am wondering if this is Ukrainian insurance for more favorable peace negotiations should Trump win the election.

      1. I hope so. They need something to bargain with. Or even if they want to win outright, they need to take the fight to Russia.

        The strategy of attritting Russian and Ukrainian troops in Ukraine until Russia grows weary is a bad one for everyone involved.

        Other than wanting the war to end, I haven’t heard Trump say what he would do with the war. He was very tough with Iran and Russia last time. I think the Ukrainiacs fears of Trump are more from left wing propaganda than something Trump would or wouldn’t do.

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